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Thursday, November 8, 2012

Secretary of State Appears to Be the Only Too-Close-to-Call Statewide Race

Posted by on Thu, Nov 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I'd been working on an analysis of election returns to try to discern if there are any trends that might reverse a handful of close statewide races, but N in Seattle filled his spreadsheet faster than me, so for the moment, I suggest checking out his post over on HA:

  • Governor — not much has changed. Jay remains in the lead, but Rob still has a chance. Maybe even a slightly greater chance than he did after Tuesday’s count.
  • Referendum 74 — Approved stretches its lead. I think the marriage-equality supporters have every right to claim victory.
  • Secretary of State — Wyman tiptoes a bit farther ahead, but it’s still much too close to call

I concur with everything N writes. But it's important to emphasize that yesterday's smaller than expected King County drop skews the statewide results towards the Republicans. King County only comprised 24.7 of yesterday's results; it will ultimately account for about 30 percent of the final tally. That's a big difference.

Looking at past turnout performance and current turnout projections it sure does look like the only statewide race in play is Secretary of State, with the edge clearly going to Republican Kim Wyman. But I'll continue to look for race-changing late-voter trends as the data comes in.


Comments (8) RSS

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theophrastus 1
that's informative, thankee. but are there no prognostications, hints, guesses, as to when the last ballot might be counted?

("sorry little luke, governor races in washington state are like half-lives of radioisotopes, theoretically they take forever to decay")
Posted by theophrastus on November 8, 2012 at 9:58 AM · Report this
auntie jim 2
I am very worried about another Republican secretary of state. In my opinion Mr. Munro let too many conservative initiatives and referendums on the ballot without scrutinizing a big enough sample of the signatures turned in by paid signature gatherers. Also look at the outrageous vote suppression tactics deployed by Republican election officials in Florida and Ohio. Across the country the Republicans want to disenfranchise people who tend to vote Democratic.
You know it's getting bad when even I'm sick of politics, Ugh!
Posted by auntie jim on November 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM · Report this
echochamber 3
What percentage of ballots have been counted at this point?
Posted by echochamber on November 8, 2012 at 10:26 AM · Report this
Goldy 4
@3 Assuming an 84 percent statewide turnout (of registered voters), about 66 percent of ballots have been counted.

@1 Well, Nov. 27 is certification day. Ballot counting can go on up until then. But most will be done by this time next week. In a later post, I'll explain why the stragglers take so long.
Posted by Goldy on November 8, 2012 at 10:32 AM · Report this
auntie jim 5
Oops I meant Sam Reed, not Ralph Munro! LOL having a senior moment.
Posted by auntie jim on November 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM · Report this
@ 2 I am not too worried Reed has been a pretty good Sec of State a nice moderate Republican, look at how he handed the 2004 Governor's race. Wyman is the same way, so even though I voted Drew. She would be ok.
Posted by Seattle14 on November 8, 2012 at 10:50 AM · Report this
Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In 7
Wyman was my county auditor, and she did an excellent job. There was never any problem w/ the elections, even during the 00's. And her being a R, believe me, I kept a close eye on her election activities.
Posted by Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In on November 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM · Report this
As I noted in my report over on HA (thanks for the shout-out, Goldy), if Wyman had been the Auditor of any county other than Thurston, Drew would probably be accepting congratulations by now.

Ordinarily, Thurston County goes something like 55-45 Democratic. In sharp contrast, Wyman is ahead there after two days of results, by an overwhelming 59-41.
Posted by N in Seattle on November 8, 2012 at 3:22 PM · Report this

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