Slog
News & ArtsThursday, November 8, 2012
Election Inslee, R-74 Expand Leads. Sorta.
Posted by Goldy on Thu, Nov 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM
King County just dropped its first of two anticipated ballot drops today—76,779 ballots worth—bumping Jay Inslee up to a 51.36 to 48.64 percent statewide lead, and a 60,062 vote margin. Democrat Kathleen Drew has also closed the gap a bit in the Secretary of State's race, in which she now trails Republican Kim Wyman by 50.44 to 49.56 percent and a 18,516 vote margin. R-74's lead now stands at 52.44 to 47.56 percent, and a comfortable 108,051 vote margin.
But... there are still a bunch of other counties that have yet to report today, so these statewide numbers are kinda meaningless. More important are the trends. Inslee won this afternoon's King County drop with 60.5 percent of the vote. That's worse than the 63.0 percent he pulled in on election night, but better than the 59.39 percent he earned from yesterday's batch. Inslee now has 62.45 percent of the total King County vote tallied thus far.
I'll run the numbers later tonight when they're all in.
1
Goldy…just call the Race. Step up and make SLOG relevant. It's not likely that the Seattle Times will decide to make the call, so who's the Paper of Record anymore in this State?
The numbers show that McKenna is not moving fast enough to close the gap. It's over.
The numbers show that McKenna is not moving fast enough to close the gap. It's over.
4
1240 is still passing and the trend is for it to stay that way BUT there are enough votes still out there that if one or two of the bigger counties move enough, it could still fail.
That the Yes side has big bucks that could crunch the numbers and declare victory if they saw it (a la Yes on R74) and they haven't declared victory,well, I think that means they are worried.
Cross your fingers. Stranger things have happened.
That the Yes side has big bucks that could crunch the numbers and declare victory if they saw it (a la Yes on R74) and they haven't declared victory,well, I think that means they are worried.
Cross your fingers. Stranger things have happened.
5
On 1240, there are no large counties with large negative margins in votes to date ... also no late news developments that might have moved late voters.
I'd assume it passes, and the new backgrounds will be district by district and school by school.
I'd assume it passes, and the new backgrounds will be district by district and school by school.
6
@1 We called the governor's race for Inslee and R74 on election night, but some folks are still nervous, so I'm plugging in the numbers.
I wish 1240 was in danger, but unlike Republicans, I put my faith in the data, not in my faith. SOS is the only statewide race that is truly in doubt, and Wyman is the odds on favorite to win it.
I wish 1240 was in danger, but unlike Republicans, I put my faith in the data, not in my faith. SOS is the only statewide race that is truly in doubt, and Wyman is the odds on favorite to win it.
7
It's quite interesting that there isn't the typical East/West divide on 1240 that we often see. KingCo is pretty evenly split, so is SpokaneCo, Wallax2Co same same, etc. I don't think that there is enough "strength" in any county to make up the difference. The SoS's map by county on this one is quite revealing.
8
@6 Goldy…I actually think this is becoming a story. The fact is, we don't have a media outlet of record in this State who can make the hard calls and be trusted by the voters.
The Seattle Times seriously eroded their authority with the stupid ad campaign.
Ohio was called for the President with a minuscule number separating the candidates, because by the numbers, we knew what vote was left. We know that same thing here. The numbers would have to be trending hard in McKenna's favor now and they just aren't doing so.
This is NOT a close race. We are nowhere near a recount. This race is o.v.e.r.
The Seattle Times seriously eroded their authority with the stupid ad campaign.
Ohio was called for the President with a minuscule number separating the candidates, because by the numbers, we knew what vote was left. We know that same thing here. The numbers would have to be trending hard in McKenna's favor now and they just aren't doing so.
This is NOT a close race. We are nowhere near a recount. This race is o.v.e.r.
9
According to the tracker I can report ballots dropped at the Ballard library box Monday have not yet been counted, if that's any indication/consolation.
10
I think that, much like Eyman's nonsense, the charter school thing will be subject to lawsuits. IANAL, but I think there are constitutional issues big enough to drive trucks through. The other side, of course, has unlimited money to spend defending it, so we'll see what happens.
13
I don't really mind the media being cautious with their calls. It's not like them calling it has any real significance.
If you look at the data and are convinced it really should not matter if a newspaper looking at the same data says the same thing.
If you look at the data and are convinced it really should not matter if a newspaper looking at the same data says the same thing.
14
I would rather they take a few days and be accurate with the voter count than magically have results. This was a huge voter turnout - we should be both proud and patient.
16
Why on earth is Spokane county, with 21,000 votes not counted, showing on the SOS site that their next update will be on 11/13? Almost all other counties, especially larger counties like it, will update tomorrow. Seriously? Is that a typo?
17
@14 There's no reason to be patient. We have math. Facts. Numbers. We can calculate trends, and those trends tell us plenty about the race. This is why we knew we have a President on election night. That same process should be used here.
But, apparently none of the media in this State feel like doing their job. And yes, this matters, for a whole host of reasons.
But, apparently none of the media in this State feel like doing their job. And yes, this matters, for a whole host of reasons.
18
Timothy, dear, I am talking about actual results, not trends. You are welcome to fuss with your spreadsheets and such.
19
Catalina…did Obama win the election? How do you know? There are MILLIONS of votes left to count!!!
20
Again, Timothy dear, you are welcome to fuss with your spreadsheets and such. They certainly have proven themselves before, haven't they? And the newspapers are more than welcome to make their projections. I just hope we won't end up with another Rossi/Gregoire farce. That is why I am happy to bide my time.
22
Your lips to God's ears, Timothy dearest. I come from a long line of cynical black Irish bastards. It's in my DNA to worry, so worry I will.
23
The referendum has already been called for gay marriage supporters -- it's over. Why do people keep reporting the results as if it's not a done deal?
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