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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

What Went Wrong with Republican Predictions

Posted by on Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 4:19 PM

That Unskewed Polls Guy:

Chambers' method of "unskewing" polls involved re-weighting the sample to match what he believed the electorate would look like, in terms of party identification. He thought the electorate would lean more Republican when mainstream pollsters routinely found samples that leaned Democratic.

But as it turned out, the pollsters were right — self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6% in election exit polls.

"I think it was much more in the Democratic direction than most people predicted," Chambers said. "But those assumptions — my assumptions — were wrong."

Dick Morris:

The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.

Glad to see these schmucks owning up to their errors. Has Karl Rove pulled his thumb out of his mouth long enough to apologize for his election night snit-fit yet?

 

Comments (24) RSS

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Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 1
The worse of it was the University of Colorado study which had an iron clad logic of economics only going back to 1980. Pretty much something was way wrong with their model that predicted a landslide...for Romney!

However, my model holds up...which says that the principle division in the country is based on population density.

According to USA Today, Romney won the suburbs, where 47.4% of all Americans live, by 50.2% to 47.6%.

However, he got crushed in cities larger 500,000...69.4% to 28.5%!

Romney won suburbs, towns, rural areas.
Obama won small and large cities...but by very big margins (even though only 31.6% of people live in these dense centers).

http://www.usatoday.com/interactives/new…
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 4:34 PM · Report this
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn 2
A simple "derp" would have sufficed.
Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn http://youtu.be/zu-akdyxpUc on November 7, 2012 at 4:52 PM · Report this
Fnarf 3
Dick Morris should be walled up in a cellar somewhere and left to rot. The whole punditocracy (some on the left included) should be fired.
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on November 7, 2012 at 4:54 PM · Report this
emma's bee 4
As has been stated again and again, reality has a well-known liberal bias.
Posted by emma's bee on November 7, 2012 at 5:18 PM · Report this
5
What went wrong? They probably didn't think that pissing off women would cause them to vote in greater numbers to partially offset lower tum-out than in 2008 among Democratic voters. Morons.
Posted by anon1256 on November 7, 2012 at 6:06 PM · Report this
rob! 6
@1, the Stranger brain trust beat you by 8 years, and The Nation by 7½.
Posted by rob! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZBdUceCL5U on November 7, 2012 at 6:42 PM · Report this
biffp 7
They weren't wrong. They and the media were bullshitting to get more money out of campaigns and PACs.
Posted by biffp on November 7, 2012 at 6:50 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 8
#2, #6

Derp then. Or something you said yourselves.

In either case, Romney won the suburbs.

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 7:10 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 9

Here's another:

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2004

POPULATION DENSITY AS A PREDICTOR OF VOTING
GLENN linked to an article at TECHCENTRALSTATION by Patrick Cox titled "A Tale of Two Maps."

Cox - and others who have been commenting on the various RED STATE/BLUE STATE maps - generally look for sociological explanations for the glaringly obvious correlation between population density and party affiliation, as if everyday aspects of urbaneness and urban civil, class and tax structures might explain why a clear majority of people who choose to live in more densely populated areas tend to be Democrats. (In fact, Kerry and the Democrats carried only cities with a population of over 500,000, while Bush carried a majority in all cities with a population of less than 500,000. So what we might ask is: "what is so different about these 500,000+ cities that makes them so blue?")


http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2004/1…

Guess all are playing the same card.
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 7:17 PM · Report this
Urgutha Forka 10
I wish they wouldn't own up to it. I wish they'd keep their heads buried in the sand permanently. This country would be better off if the republican party dissolved completely and was replaced by sane people.
Posted by Urgutha Forka on November 7, 2012 at 7:20 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 11

Or perhaps "essays & effluvia" has primacy:

Thursday, November 04, 2004

Popular Vote, Population Density

These two maps reveal that this is actually quite an evenly split nation -- coastal urbanites versus heartland rural/suburbanites:


Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 7:20 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 12
That blog again.

essays and effluvia:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/writing/20…
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 7:23 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 13

Then there's also this from Feb 28, 2003 (according to Google):

Because the areas are unequal but the long-term vote results are approximately equal, we can assume that areas with higher population density tend to vote for Democrats, and lower for the Republicans.


http://www.poppyware.com/bowditch/maps/e…

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 7:28 PM · Report this
14
Congratulations to Dick Morris, who apparently just today realized that decisions in America are no longer controlled by white men.
Posted by catballou on November 7, 2012 at 7:30 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 15
#10

This country would be better off if the republican party dissolved completely and was replaced by sane people.


Sounds like a job for Bain.

But I agree with you.

In fact, I just changed my party affiliation on Facebook to "Technocrat".

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 7:34 PM · Report this
Christampa 16
God Bailo, we get it. You're unable to think of your own opinions, so you have to digest well written commentaries and regurgitate them claiming it as your own creation.

And then cry about it when people don't lap it up. When are you going to admit YOU were wrong in your prediction of the electoral map?
Posted by Christampa on November 7, 2012 at 7:54 PM · Report this
17
The difference between Morris and Chambers and Karl Rove is that Morris and Chambers weren't the captains of $400MM SuperPAC ships that failed epically.
Posted by madcap on November 7, 2012 at 8:29 PM · Report this
18
I, for one, are impressed they admitted they were wrong; and did it quickly. This has not been a thing seen often of late on the right.

Acknowledging reality might get the Republican Party on a sane track eventually and having two sane parties is the minimum we need.
Posted by david on November 7, 2012 at 10:29 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 19
#16

Paraphrasing what Bill Gates said to Steve Jobs regarding the Xerox Parc GUI, we both stole it from the same place.
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com on November 7, 2012 at 11:35 PM · Report this
20
@18, all they admitted was that they didn't pursue the right strategy, and that in order to survive, they must develop a better strategy. That's typically Republican: we'll do anything to win -- anything -- and we're going to find something that works next time.
Posted by sarah70 on November 7, 2012 at 11:53 PM · Report this
21
What went wrong? Republicans openly flaunted their stupidity by declaring war on the one group that represents 53% of voters in the United States----WOMEN!!!
They didn't believe that enough women would actually VOTE!!
They tried to run their campaign----100 years backward!
They pushed their agenda so far to the right, they alienated their own PARTY!!
They nominated a cocky, arrogant, unlikable, out-of-touch Bush-clone for the Repig ticket---AGAIN!
Somehow, the GOP got the brilliant idea to combine Church and State, also deciding that 'corporations (as well as rapists and unborn fetuses) are people, too'!!
By deregulating banks and promoting high credit risks, they created the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression!!
They did everything possible to block any additional progress President Obama COULD have made during his first of two terms in cleaning up one of the biggest Republican created messes in U.S. history, left by Dubya, by repeatedly saying NO!!
They desperately tried to implement an additional group of political morons called the Tea Party, and build them up politically, only to use them as puppets!!
They believed that money could buy and suppress votes!!
Their idea of "solutions" to national and global problems? Send our jobs overseas, scoff at global warming and climate change by destroying our last remaining open spaces for the wealth of so few, crying, 'Drill, baby, drill!', cut off healthcare and higher education to everybody but the richest 1%, while cutting critically needed government programs established by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, such as Medicare and Social Security---THEN have the audacity to label the people relying on these government benefits---retirees, disabled veterans, etc., as PARASITES!!

Quickly admitting they were wrong seems to be the only thing the Republican Party has gotten RIGHT over the last 3 decades. Anybody remember General-turned U.S. President Dwight D. "Ike" Eisenhower (who succeeded President Harry S. Truman)? Ike WARNED us not to get involved with foreign militaries. HE actually had some common sense. Did we listen? Fuck, NO! Eisenhower must be rolling over in his grave.
More...
Posted by auntie grizelda on November 8, 2012 at 12:03 AM · Report this
22
@20 Good luck with that one, sarah70!
Do you ever wonder why elephants are so near extinction?
Do you see a parallel here?
Posted by auntie grizelda on November 8, 2012 at 12:09 AM · Report this
Theodore Gorath 23
Bailo goes into day two of his epic explanation that he was not actually dead wrong about how he called the election.

My god man, get over it. You were wrong.
Posted by Theodore Gorath on November 8, 2012 at 5:49 AM · Report this
24
This is just further proof that these clowns really, truly, are incapable of seeing anyone who isn't a straight white male as a person.

Or that anyone could stay interested or be passionate about anything that isn't important to a conservative straight white man.

It's inconceivable (pun intended) to them that women would actually care about contraception or women's health care.

It's inconceivable that black people might be politically aware or interested in the economy, or that Latinos might just listen, and care about the anti-latino policies of the GOP.

Or that gay people even exist, and have families and friends who care about our rights.

Amazing.
Posted by Lymis on November 8, 2012 at 6:02 AM · Report this

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