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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Little Drama in Today's Ballot Drop, as King County Heads Toward Record Turnout

Posted by on Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 6:51 PM

After a couple hour delay, King County finally reported an additional 52,000 or so ballots today that largely didn't change anything. Compared to last night's count, today's ballots appear to be trending slightly more Republican, though not all the counties that will report have reported, so I've yet to run the numbers through my spreadsheet. For the moment, Jay Inslee and R-74 still lead by similar margins as last night.

The bigger news though is the turnout. King County Elections estimates that it has received about 985,000 ballots so far, about an 84 percent turnout. If past experience is any guide, there are still about another 25,000 ballots in the mail. That could push turnout up over 86 percent. No idea yet on how this compares to the rest of the state.

UPDATE: All the counties that will report today have reported today, and today's batch did trend slightly toward Rob McKenna. Inslee now leads with 51.16 percent of the vote and 48,766 vote margin, down from 51.32 percent and a 50,209 vote margin last night. A caveat, though: Due to King County's lower than expected ballot report today, King County makes up a significantly smaller percentage of today's new ballots statewide: Only 24.7 percent today of the ballots counted today compared to 28.6 percent of those reported last night. King County has 30 percent of registered voters statewide, so today's trend isn't enough to suggest a late McKenna surge.

On the other hand, Referendum 74 actually expanded its lead, from 51.79 percent and a 68,111 vote margin last night to 51.96 percent and a 82,698 vote margin today. So R-74's sponsor should remain perfectly comfortable in declaring victory.

More analysis later.


Comments (21) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment
Actually looks like R-74 has about another 10k in the lead vs where it was last night.

But yeah, I was worried that it supporters called it too soon but after today's drops I'm getting ready to call it myself.
Posted by zzyzx on November 7, 2012 at 6:54 PM · Report this
This race is over. Why isn't it being called yet? McKenna would have needed a dramatic break his way in order to indicate a possibility that he'd overtake Inslee.

I'll go ahead and call it. Inslee wins.
Posted by Timothy on November 7, 2012 at 7:07 PM · Report this
Can we expect a post later tonight once you've run the data through your spreadsheet? It would do much to ease my mind.
Posted by Still nervous on November 7, 2012 at 7:14 PM · Report this
While I was knocking on doors and canvassing for Jay Inslee I stopped and asked 30 complete strangers in Seattle whether they had voted on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. I asked people of all races, ages, and socio-economic backgrounds on Capitol Hill, Beacon Hill, Hillman City, the Central District and Madison Valley. Out of the 30 strangers that I asked only one person told me that he didn't vote because he wasn't registered. It's not perfect but 29 out of 30 isn't bad.
Posted by historyteacher on November 7, 2012 at 7:19 PM · Report this
Tiffany 5
Umm... am I missing something here? The Secretary of State already provides a spreadsheet for you:…
Posted by Tiffany on November 7, 2012 at 7:22 PM · Report this
The new drop has improved King county's approval rate of R74, from 65.48% to 65.66%. That means today's ballots were about two percent better (in King) than the earlier ones. Ref-74 is a shoe-in.

Island County also switched from "no" to "Pro" with later ballot drops, and -- just for fun -- San Juan County is not only the most "pro-" county (70% !), but it even supported R74 at higher rates than it supported Obama ("only" 67%).
Posted by G g on November 7, 2012 at 7:29 PM · Report this
Goldy 7
@5 The Secretary of State's spreadsheet doesn't do what my spreadsheet does. He's providing a running total. I'm collecting daily data so that I can compare day to day trends.

So while I grab data from the SOS spreadsheet, there's a bit of massaging required.
Posted by Goldy on November 7, 2012 at 7:29 PM · Report this
Can you please do an analysis on the trend in the Secretary of State race?
Posted by rzn2be on November 7, 2012 at 7:59 PM · Report this
@8 - I second your request, and I'm also wondering if I-1240 might still lose, despite all the $$$ spent to pass the lousy piece of garbage
Posted by Ebenezer on November 7, 2012 at 8:40 PM · Report this
I figure 1240 at 51.14% yes if the ballots continue on the same yes/no/novote in each county and the remaining to count figure in each county is close.
Posted by DJSauvage on November 7, 2012 at 9:34 PM · Report this
Occupy Seattle 11
Argggghhhh! The Secretary of State NOT going our way YET. Kathleen Drew losing by 1% - a little less than 25 thousand votes. But a whole lot of King County votes still need to be counted, so when all is said and done, Kathleen might end up beating her Tea Party Republican opponent by the length of Goldy's dress. I'm just fucking pissed at the Dems that didn't vote all the way down the ballot. P.S. Still recovering the party...
Posted by Occupy Seattle on November 7, 2012 at 9:51 PM · Report this
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 12

Pressure on to oust or reform Chu

Obama's Second Term Could Herald Renewed Push for EVs, Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles…
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe on November 7, 2012 at 11:41 PM · Report this
Why is the Secretary of State office important? (That's a serious question.)
Posted by sarah70 on November 7, 2012 at 11:45 PM · Report this
@4 - Yet, 84% of the registered vote is ~60% of the eligible pop of King County
Posted by anon1256 on November 8, 2012 at 12:02 AM · Report this
@13: They run elections!
Retiring GOP Secretary Sam Reed was very fair and moderate. But you can see in other states, some GOP Secs of State make ballot access complicated and unfair (e.g. Ohio's current and previous GOP Secretaries of State). Not saying the GOP candidate here is like those douchebags, but speaks to the importance of the office.

And the Sec does lots of other things too. But elections is probably the most important.
Posted by BelieveInNuances on November 8, 2012 at 12:02 AM · Report this
Cato the Younger Younger 16
On a side note send a letter to the White House to tell Obama he won the election, the GOP lost. He has no reason to cave on Social Security or Medicare.
Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on November 8, 2012 at 3:40 AM · Report this
@13 In short: Katherine Harris. She was Florida's secretary of state during the 2000 presidential election and was instrumental in helping him win.

Republicans often try to supress the vote so having a conservative Republican in charge of elections is a problem for those who believe in democracy.
Posted by Remember Katherine Harris on November 8, 2012 at 6:45 AM · Report this
Do the outstanding King County votes come from the entire county or by precincts?

If it is the latter and the outstanding precincts come from the eastside than McKenna still could have a shot. Yikes! If the outstanding ballots come from all over King County, than why hasn't he conceded?
Posted by Mrs. Dalloway on November 8, 2012 at 7:04 AM · Report this
@13 Because it can be a stepping stone to higher office (i.e. governor, senate). Wyman has said that's her intention.
Posted by rzn2be on November 8, 2012 at 7:18 AM · Report this
Goldy 20
@18 While ballots are sorted by precinct upon arrival, and then processed in batches, these batches are generally processed chronologically. So the only trend we can really see from the daily drops is whether late voters trended one way or another.

It's certainly possible that some precincts are underrepresented in the count thus far, but a precinct level analysis is beyond my scope.
Posted by Goldy on November 8, 2012 at 9:01 AM · Report this
Thanks Goldy for the info. You know your stuff.
Posted by Mrs. Dalloway on November 9, 2012 at 10:06 AM · Report this

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