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Thursday, November 1, 2012

After Sandy

Posted by on Thu, Nov 1, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Romney should have...

“The Romney campaign was gaining a little momentum. Superstorm Sandy hit and you feel all the momentum gone,” he said. “I think Gov. Romney has diminished himself in the last couple days. It’s important to do what Chris Christie did. Mitt Romney would have got much further to say, ‘I’m 100 percent behind the president. We are Americans right now, his leadership is important for the country.’”


How is he responding? Reuters:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney returned to campaign attacks against President Barack Obama on Thursday after a pause for the storm Sandy, hitting the Democrat for proposing more government bureaucracy.

But what did big government just achieve?

FEMA's success so far may be particularly important for Obama in a way that it wouldn't have been for other presidents. One of the overarching themes of the presidential race has been the role of the federal government. Mitt Romney's campaign has run largely on getting it out of our lives, while Obama has championed the good that federal government can do. (That was the forgotten point of his "you didn't build that" speech.) In these waning days of the campaign, a big, splashy demonstration of efficient federal governance just might help Obama win that argument with whatever decision-impaired voters still remain in the American electorate. And having Chris Christie vouch for him doesn't hurt one bit: Obama couldn't have asked for a better closing image for his re-election campaign than a tarmac handshake with the rock star of the Republican party.

So, who is going to win? Rove says...

“Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president,” Rove wrote on Wednesday night. “Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”
He argued that Romney has a “small but persistent polling edge,” leading in 19 of the 31 national surveys released in the last week, he said, and the GOP candidate “was at or above 50 percent in 10 polls, Obama in none.” President Barack Obama was ahead in seven of the polls, Rove said, and five were tied.

Nate Silver...

Mr. Obama had one more terrible day in the polls, on Friday, Oct. 12, when Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to almost 40 percent in the forecast. But that was when Mr. Romney’s momentum stopped.

Since then, Mr. Obama’s standing has rebounded slightly. His position in the national polls has stabilized; although the national polls continue to tell a different story about the race than the state polls do; it can no longer be said that they have Mr. Obama behind. (More about that in a moment.)

Meanwhile, Mr. Obama continues to hold the lead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, the states that represent his path of least resistance toward winning the Electoral College. This was particularly apparent on Wednesday, a day when there were a remarkable number of polls, 27, released in the battleground states.

At the moment, Silver gives Obama a 79 percent chance of winning. His numbers are based on information provided by polls. So, as WaPo made very clear in this post, if he is wrong, the polls are wrong.

The fact is this race is really about Obama or not Obama. It has never been about Obama or Romney. This is why Romney has had the freedom to let anything come out of his mouth, change his views, even outright lie. There are no consequences for him because he is not even in the race. Only Obama is in the race. As a consequence, the only thing that matters is his performance, his words, his ups and downs. If Obama loses it is because Obama lost.

 

Comments (10) RSS

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Keister Button 1
Charles meant to point to Politico in his first link.
Posted by Keister Button on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM
DOUG. 2
"You didn't rebuild that..."
Posted by DOUG. http://www.dougsvotersguide.com on November 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM
Pope Peabrain 3
Obama vanquishes his enemies.
Posted by Pope Peabrain on November 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Knat 4
I'm having to say this more and more lately: Mudede is absolutely right. That last paragraph sums up the 2012 election nicely.
Posted by Knat on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM
5
@4: I have a few Republican friends on FB. Most of them are okay as long as you don't get politics into things, and most of them (being in MA) are pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, etc. But despite the fact they're planning on voting for Romney, I haven't heard a one say anything good about the man. The only news stories they link to are the ones who say something bad about our President; not anything good about his opponent. Although the words 'Mudede is right' leave a foul odor about my keyboard, Mudede is right. Romney isn't a candidate or leader; he's merely an alternative, even to his supporters.
Posted by NateMan on November 1, 2012 at 12:07 PM
Gay Dude for Romney 6
So is Nate Silver is out of the doghouse as far as The Stranger is concerned now?
Posted by Gay Dude for Romney http://mittromney.com on November 1, 2012 at 12:11 PM
7
Bu.sh ..L .ite (insert for proper perspective)
Posted by neoanderthal on November 1, 2012 at 12:24 PM
8
@6 LOL.

You have nothing. You never have.

I can't wait to watch you whither away as you scream/cry "I'M MELTING...melting...oh, what a world."
Posted by Sam O. on November 1, 2012 at 12:24 PM
Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In 9
The R's have, basically, only one policy, one issue, and they've been hammering that issue constantly for the past four years: Obama is a big poo-poo head.

Outside of that, they have nothing to offer. And like all fanatics, they are impervious to reason. They're true believers that have drunk the kool-aid. That's why the "solution" offered above is a ludicrous wish, just like the R's pretending that the polls don't say what they say.
Posted by Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In on November 1, 2012 at 1:24 PM
threnody 10
Last week, I finally worked up the nerve to facebook-stalk some of my Mormon relatives in a red state. These are the ones I am not actually "friends" with on fb because their views are too right-wing and extreme for me to read regularly without getting ill. I steeled myself for all the pro-Romney, anti-Obama vitriol that I could take for a few seconds...just to see how the other half lives.

Guess what? They aren't voting, or are voting third party. Blew my goddamned mind. They don't like Obama, and are depressed about the direction the country is taking...but do NOT like Romney and feel he's dishonest and only out to benefit the very rich. Middle-class, white, 100% Republican, extremely socially conservative MORMONS! Nothing could have prepared me for this.

I know this is purely anecdotal, but it cheered me up considerably and I had to share. If Mitt can't count on their support...I really don't know that he can do this.
Posted by threnody on November 1, 2012 at 4:55 PM

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