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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Politics Dear Gays: A Little Fear Mongering on R-74

Posted by Dominic Holden on Wed, Oct 24, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Elway Research

The final Elway Research poll before the election hit the streets today, and it shows that approving Referendum 74, thereby legalizing gay marriage, has the support of only 49 percent of likely voters. Six percent of voters are undecided and 45 percent of voters are opposed. It also shows the GOP's Rob McKenna taking a narrow lead for governor, a close race for state attorney general, and several initiatives teetering between passage and defeat. The full report from Elway is here. But back to gay marriage.

"Opposition to Referendum 74 has grown over the past month," says the Elway Poll, "while support has stayed at virtually the same level since July."

This is not great news.

Before you freak out, though, a couple caveats: Elway's previous polls represented a sample of all registered voters; this poll was of likely voters. So it's a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison that could, possibly, be leaving out younger, newly registered, liberal-er-ish voters. The poll of 451 voters also has a margin of error of 5 percent.

All that said, THE POLL SHOWS THAT LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF VOTERS SUPPORT MARRIAGE EQUALITY. The group of undecided voters is shrinking, with those folks breaking toward "reject" votes. Everyone seems to think that approving R-74 is in the bag. It's not. Sure, some might say, Elway has low-balled initiatives in the past. And true, other recent polls show R-74 has slightly more support. And polls are only a snapshot and you have to look at trends and blah and babble and furthermore blah. Still, these numbers should be alarming.

This news should not make gays and their allies freak out. But it should make gays and their allies resolute about phone banking, talking to your family, door-belling, and doing all that stuff you intended to do between now and the election. And the Washington United for Marriage campaign needs to start hitting back hard against these bigoted attack ads. These last two weeks are when it really counts.

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Comments (23) RSS

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Lookit folks, even if civil equality is denied for those wanting to get married, there is still the Supreme Court and that whole chain of events. The war for freedom and equality is not over. I am fully prepared for R74 to go down in defeat because Str8 people now have a special right and they don't like to share all that much.

Mr Holden, if we wait for WAUnited to hit back hard we've got a long wait.

Posted by Sargon Bighorn on October 24, 2012 at 5:25 PM

I am worried if R74 passes all of those poor people in the south who will be killed by the hurricanes that god will make.

Posted by meanie

on October 24, 2012 at 5:47 PM

You are going to give credence to a poll presented by someone who thinks there is only one P in "approve"?

Posted by Keister Button on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

@2, reason enough to approve R74....

Did I type that out loud?

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on October 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM

This is a well-managed campaign that will be won or lost on GOTV. If we stay home (because polls say all is lost!!) or get raptured we lose. Polls are useless BS at this state, especially if the mean differs wildly from this result.

What counts is getting off your ass.

Or hype for the sake of page hits. Whichev.

Posted by Baconcat on October 24, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Unfortunately the "apples-to-oranges" comparison of likely voter polls to registered voter polls doesn't make the news look any better. Likely voter polls are far more accurate than registered voter polls so this just means that the previous large margins in favor of gay marriage were a mirage. Because even though a majority of the general populace IS in favor, some of us young 'uns are too lazy to get off our asses and vote! And now the poll is taking that into account.

Posted by Polls! How do they work? on October 24, 2012 at 5:56 PM

I'm glad to see you suggesting that folks do the same stuff this post suggests they do. You know, door-belling for "page hits," or whatevs.

Posted by Dominic Holden on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

The a reject R74 group has been holding signs on the overpasses walkway on 405. "Same sex couples already have equal rights in WA" That's probably the best message for the east-siders who are pro-gayish but territorial about the word marriage.

Posted by sisyphusgal on October 24, 2012 at 6:35 PM

@7: Zzzzzzz.

@8: which overpasses?

Posted by Baconcat on October 24, 2012 at 7:37 PM

I emailed Washington United for Marriage about 3 weeks ago and asked them if they were going to respond hard to the bigoted ads that were sure to come. They responded to me essentially saying that harsh ads in response were not effective, according to their research. And that was it. I had a bad feeling that they were going to do the same shit as the dumbasses in California and their email response confirmed my worst fear. At that point I stopped donating any money--I'm simply no longer going to throw my hard earned money away to an organization that has no interest in really fighting back. I will not be surprised if R-74 is rejected on Nov. 6.

Posted by Mark in Colorado on October 24, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Thanks for that poll link. A tidbit:

Top reason people select McKenna...Philosophy.
Top reason people select Inslee...he's a Democrat.

End of transmission.

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe

on October 24, 2012 at 7:54 PM

The poll says that it will pass unless least 5 out of 6 undecided voters have to break for Reject. If only 4 out of 6 go that way, it passes 51-49. If they split evenly, it's 52-48.

Five out of six is a tall order. My money says 98% of the undecideds are confused about whether they support Approve or Reject, and they'll split right down the middle.

Elway says clearly here "the sample frame was different" -- because voters and likely voters are not the same thing at all. Yet they still argue that support has declined? That can only be valid if last month's sample was also likely voters.

Otherwise, were just seeing the usual older, more conservative tilt of likely voters, not a real decrease in support or a real increase in opposition.

Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn

on October 24, 2012 at 7:59 PM

@12 and you know this because... oh, right, you're the useless twat that makes shit up or posts links to irrelevant YouTube videos.

I bet your last sentence is also a lie, and we unfortunately haven't heard the last from you.

Posted by Dr_Awesome on October 24, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Eek. Meant @11, not 12. Sorry, unpronounceable name.

P.s. to Bailo: go run away and hide now, like you always do as soon as anyone calls out your incessant stupidity.

Posted by Dr_Awesome on October 24, 2012 at 8:04 PM

@13

You're confused. YouTube videos? When? Ever?

Click on the link and read the PDF. If the undecided split any less than 5 out of 6 Reject, it has to get 50% + at least 1 vote for Approved. Win.

Elway's report says 4% of those committed are confused about whether they support Approve or Reject. Read it yourself. It's reasonable to assume that most of the dummies who can't make up their minds are a lot more confused. But even if they're not confused, simple math says it's going to pass unless this poll is utterly wrong. or unless a bizarrely high number of undecided break against it.

You really have me mixed up with somebody else. Links to YouTube. Really. Probably some other Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn you know. Lot of anger in you too.

Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn

on October 24, 2012 at 8:30 PM

If people were interested in hanging out on that ever-so-pleasant 405 walkway overpass holding signs in support, is there somewhere we can pick up signs? Or do we make our own? My art sucks. :|

Posted by zachd

on October 24, 2012 at 8:53 PM

@16, try the R74 office at 511 E Pike, they may have a big banner, but if not they definitely have yard signs.

Posted by happy renter on October 24, 2012 at 9:00 PM

I've been busting my ass down at the Tacoma office 3-4 nights a week for the past month, and all it gets me is a 2% loss?

Wow, you guys sure know how to demoralize somebody. Way to make me feel like all my hard work and donating every spare dollar to this thing has been a complete waste.

What are you going to do for an encore?

If this was intended to scare people into being motivated enough to work harder, have you stopped to think about all the people who have been busting our asses and what this little story says to us?

Posted by Tacoma Traveler on October 24, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Relax GirlFriends.....

Polls are just a SnapShot.

the Trend is what is important.

and the Trend is, like, diving into the Shitter at Mach 2......

UWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!....

.

we blame Mitt.

and his DEVASTATING dismantling of Obama in the first debate.

that is when the earth tipped on its axis........

Posted by This sux. Lets go get Stoned..... on October 25, 2012 at 12:28 AM

Scary scary shit for frickin' haloween...

Posted by Banned on The Seattle Times on October 25, 2012 at 1:55 AM

@21, don't be demoralized! There was never any question the polls would start to get close once the antis started their misleading scare ads - and the work you and other volunteers have been doing has helped keep us ahead. Now everyone who supports needs to step up and donate time or money.

Posted by VoteApprove74 on October 25, 2012 at 8:18 AM

I just gave $50, and emailed every one of my relatives in WA, begging them to vote "yes". My family are a pretty conservative bunch, and I may have just outed myself to a number of elderly relatives, but this is just too important for me to stay silent if there's any chance my words might sway them.

Posted by skjaere on October 25, 2012 at 12:59 PM

We HAVE to get voter turnout in King County. We HAVE to. King County has a history of apathetic, pitiful voter turnouts - 30%, 26% (in the primary), even 42% for presidential years. Whereas the red counties manage to get 70%, 75%, 80% of their 1200 voters to mail in their ballots. King County is the 500-lb. gorilla of Washington State politics. If we turn out the King County voters, this will win in a walk. If we don't, it WILL FAIL.

What have you done to encourage someone to get their ballot in today? I'm offering stamps to those of my friends who whine about poll taxes. I'm reminding people daily to get that ballot marked and get it sent in. We have GOT to turn out the King County voters this election. This one really, really matters.

Posted by Geni on October 25, 2012 at 1:40 PM