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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2012 The Best Political Analysis You'll Read All Day

Posted by Paul Constant on Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Jonathan Chait at The Vulture explains the Romney campaign's strategy for the remaining two weeks leading up till election day:

In recent days, the vibe emanating from Mitt Romney’s campaign has grown downright giddy. Despite a lack of any evident positive momentum over the last week — indeed, in the face of a slight decline from its post-Denver high — the Romney camp is suddenly bursting with talk that it will not only win but win handily. (“We’re going to win,” said one of the former Massachusetts governor’s closest advisers. “Seriously, 305 electoral votes.”)

This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It's reminiscent of how George W. Bush acted more presidential while the outcome of the 2000 election was in doubt. It's not the best strategy, but then the media has never been very smart about getting played by presidential candidates. Go read the whole thing.

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I noticed this during the debates as well, especially the last two , when Romney would always say "when" as opposed to "if" he's elected. If he squeaked out an "if," he would go back and correct himself.

I thought it was off-putting myself, but I generally detest the man.

Posted by pfffter on October 23, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Nothing like Rmoney's insane compulsive lying, sneering, and mocking the poor and (formerly) middle class combined with his huge jump in poll numbers to restore faith in our fellow citizens. He'd put Joseph Goebbels to shame.

Kee-rist people are such fooking slackjawed, gullible, glassy-eyed, mouth-breathing, hateful, sadistic, white trash submorons. Can't half this gawdam KKKuntree just forget to breath already???

Posted by Original Andrew on October 23, 2012 at 3:51 PM

I've noticed the rightwing media keep saying how presidential Romney looked/acted in the debates, as if they have to keep telling us or we'd never know. Whoever has the most presidential hair is not a factor for me when I vote.

Posted by originalcinner on October 23, 2012 at 4:00 PM

If Romney wins, it will demonstrate there are no consequences for blatant lies, deceit, etc in campaigns. That would not be a good place for democracy to be.

Posted by wxPDX on October 23, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Bush wasn't facing an incumbent in 2000. Both he and Gore were vying for a vacant seat. Romney's got more to prove than either Bush or Gore did in 2000. He can act as presidential as he wants, but his stammering platitudes and Obama's confidence in the face of that nonsense and knowing it's his seat to lose (not to mention zinging Romney several times during the debate) indicates that Romney's got no chance.

Posted by Gomez

on October 23, 2012 at 4:14 PM

@4,

Not to mention his refusal to offer even the barest hint of transparency. Say goodbye to any presidential candidate releasing tax returns in the future if Romney gets away with it.

Posted by keshmeshi on October 23, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Good article but shouldn't you be crediting NY Magazine's Daily Intel Blog? That's where your link leads.

Posted by danindowntown on October 23, 2012 at 4:49 PM

They're just trying to build a false history of momentum so that when they rig the vote and steal the election, they can point to the old news reports and say "See, everything was headed this way! You just didn't believe us! Well, now don't you just feel so dumb."

Posted by rubus on October 23, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Obama has been falling like a rock on Intrade all day. Romney's momentum doesn't seem to be fading at all. He is at 48% at RCP right now. That is higher than he has ever been. I check out 538, the blog that predicted the outcome of 2008 almost exactly correctly, all the time to calm my jitters about this election but if I were in Romney's camp (which I, most assuredly, am NOT) I would be giddy too.

Posted by Loushka on October 23, 2012 at 5:29 PM

well, he is up 4 points today according to rasmussen. i hope to non existent christ they're wrong.

Posted by tainte on October 23, 2012 at 5:29 PM

My mother, who didn't watch a moment of the debate, said that she heard on the news that Willard came across as very presidential. Knowing that she watches Fox news, I took that to mean that he looked very white.

Posted by catballou on October 23, 2012 at 5:50 PM

@10, etc: Rasmussen and Gallup (and others) have a long history of spotting GOP candidates points. How does one determine this? Compare their polling numbers with actual vote counts.
And even so, polls use samples, which are assumed to have variability around whatever the true value is. If any one polling firm took 5 simultaneous samples from the population using whatever their house methodology is, you'd expect to see those samples produce five different answers, distributed around the mean of that firm. That mean would also vary between polling firms, depending on methodology.
To look at it another way, even if there was no change in who was actually voting for whom, there would be poll-to-poll variability in the same poll -- which would no doubt be causing brown-trouser incidents to one side or the other -- and that variability would be entirely the result of the sampling process. This is why outlier polls shouldn't be given too much weight.
So calm the fuck down. Also: Pay more attention to the overall trend in polls, and to state polls, which better describe what's going on with the Electoral College. That's what Nate Silver is doing, and that's why you're better served paying attention to him than worrying about individual, sometimes willfully skewed, polls

Posted by aureolaborealis on October 23, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Obama Halloween masks are outselling Romney masks 60 to 40. Mask sales have successfully predicted the election result since 1996.

When are they going to start giving watermelons etc to zoo animals, so they can predict the result? There's only two weeks left, we need to get on with that in case it sways the remaining 6% of undecided voters.

Posted by originalcinner on October 23, 2012 at 6:21 PM