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Monday, October 15, 2012

2012 New Polls Show Obama Has Weathered the Worst

Posted by Charles Mudede on Mon, Oct 15, 2012 at 7:53 AM

New Washington Post-ABC News poll. Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views.

Politico:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters puts Obama ahead of Romney 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical tie and the same as the week before.

However, a look at the recent history of the POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll shows Obama only lost a single point after the debate.

As for Romney being more likable, my guess is that those gains were made among voters who are going to vote GOP no matter what but didn't like like the candidate—Paul Constant has written extensively about this.

The sad thing is this: Obama still has to be cautious. He still has the lead. He just can't "go rogue" during the debate or at any other part of the final stretch. Going rogue is something a black man must not do.

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Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment

Going rogue is something nobody should do, regardless of race. Just ask Sarah Palin.

Posted by floater on October 15, 2012 at 8:32 AM

Good Morning Charles,
Indeed, I agree with @1. Going rogue helps no one (black or white woman). I want a civilized informed debate between two gentlemen. Which is what I believe will happen.

These polls if anything, indicate that the race is closer than ever:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/20…

Posted by lark on October 15, 2012 at 8:39 AM

@2
Whoops! Meant to "black man or white woman"

Posted by lark on October 15, 2012 at 8:40 AM

Romney can only win any of these debates through Obama's failure to show up. If Obama is not half dead, the best Romney can hope for is a tie.

Because Romney can never win on substance, because he has none. He can not talk about his policies, because if he does, they repulse people.

Unfortunately, the only way to stop a Gish Gallop, which is Ryan/Romney's only way to win, is to do what Joe Biden did: interrupt the bullshit parade and show how ludicrous it all is.

Of course, the voter loses because they get no real handle on the candidates, but with one side willing to simply lie throughout, there is nothing else that can be done.

It takes a second to tell a lie, a minute to refute it. The truth loses in a two minute debate format.

Posted by Theodore Gorath on October 15, 2012 at 8:52 AM

going rogue is something president urkel is incapable of doing. that's why he's the better choice.

Posted by Max Solomon on October 15, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I'm not so sure that things are so great for Obama. Turns out Romney is ahead among women, according to USA Today/Gallup.

Posted by Mister G on October 15, 2012 at 2:11 PM

@6, you have mischaracterized the story you linked to.

Posted by minderbender on October 15, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Oh, sorry. Romney's leading among women in the swing states. Much better, isn't it?

Posted by Mister G on October 15, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Weathered the worst? Now Romney's outside the margin of error in the Gallup tracking poll. The Stranger has been doing nothing but telling it's stupid, Kool-Aid drinking lefties what they want to hear. Just like Fox and the wingnuts.

Posted by Mister G on October 16, 2012 at 12:33 PM