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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

2012 / Olympia Inslee Holds Six Point Lead in Latest KING-5/SurveyUSA Poll

Posted by Goldy on Tue, Oct 2, 2012 at 10:14 AM

A new KING-5/SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Jay Inslee maintaining a lead over Republican Rob McKenna in Washington's gubernatorial race. The survey of 540 likely voters finds Inslee leading 48 percent to 42 percent. Inslee led by a 49-44 margin in September.

I find this poll particularly significant because it shows no traction for McKenna despite a barrage of post-primary TV advertising. Both candidates' ads have been in pretty heavy rotation in recent weeks, and I was curious to see what sort of impact it might be having on voters. Apparently, not much.

What explains McKenna's woes?

Overall however, respondents said they see Inslee as the more “likeable” candidate by a 14-point margin.

Inslee is more likable, a natural advantage I think many observers underestimated earlier in the contest when the conventional wisdom was that this was McKenna's race to lose. But Dems shouldn't get overconfident. This is still going to be a close election—likely within 3 points—and there are still a lot of swing voters out there who labor under the delusion that McKenna is a different kind of Republican.

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McKenna should be encouraged to make more of those age-ist disgusting old-men around the table tableaus. Those things are even more off-putting that the earlier daughter "hey dad! you protected da womens!" ads.

Posted by theophrastus on October 2, 2012 at 10:25 AM

@1 The stunning thing about those ads is that he already has the cranky-old-white-guy vote. Why spend money playing to that base? It's women, hispanics and #asians he needs to win over.

Posted by Goldy on October 2, 2012 at 10:35 AM

In addition to being generically not-so-likeable, McKenna doesn't really come across as being very Washingtonian, whereas Inslee is so undeniably a pacific northwesterner in his mannerisms, dress, and speech. I mean, he's wearing an ugly fleece jacket in half his ads.

Posted by Asparagus! on October 2, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Are there crosstabs on this poll?

Posted by interested party on October 2, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Oh boy! I sure hope we have some drawn-out recount bullshit!

Posted by MacCrocodile

on October 2, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I hope that Inslee gets more of his ads on TV. I'm fucking sick of going to the gym and seeing nothing but McKenna ads on KOMO and KING. It's disgusting

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on October 2, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Hey, I was one of the luck 540 who received the robo-call poll from King 5 leading to these results. Glad to do my part for my neighbor and fellow attorney Jay Inslee....

McKenna is an idiot.

Posted by Jaymz on October 2, 2012 at 11:19 AM