Slog
News & ArtsThursday, September 20, 2012
2012 What Would Happen if Mitt Romney Dropped Out Now?
Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, Sep 20, 2012 at 4:50 PM
I've been getting this question a whole lot. People have been stopping me on the street and asking me, people have been sending me e-mails, people have been social-networking it at me via twots and plus-tags and face-bots. The questions all pretty much run like this:
Can the Republicans dump Mitt Romney now? What happens if Romney decides enough is enough and he drops out? Can he even do that? Is it possible?
Let me first address the most important question in all this: This is not going to happen. Mitt Romney is staying in the race, and the fact that so many Democrats are asking this question is making me a little nervous. He could still win. This is a real outcome that could still happen in real life. He has not alienated his base, so he does have that 47% of, er, non-freeloaders on his side. Some polls still show him running neck-and-neck with Obama. If you want Obama to win, you still have to donate to the Obama campaign and volunteer to get out the vote and talk to your friends and enemies and even your family. This is important. It is nowhere near over.
But the truth is, I didn't know the procedure, so I sent an e-mail to Kirby Wilbur, the chairman of the Washington state GOP*, and asked him what would happen, hypothetically, if Romney dropped out. Wilbur's response:
Best of my knowledge, there would have to be a meeting of the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy. There would be no new convention. And Ryan would be the likely successor, IMHO.
So that settles that. Now go back and reread the third paragraph of this post, because that's the one thing you should take away from all this.
* Also in the e-mail, I thanked Wilbur for throwing me out of his Tampa Bay hotel during the RNC a couple weeks back, and he responded (emphasis mine):
I don't think I had you thrown out. I let the delegation know there was a reporter from the Stranger somewhere in the hotel, so beware of a nice young man and what questions he might be asking. I think we even had your picture. But we didn't do anything to remove you.
I believe Wilbur's account, but all I know is, I was kicked off the grounds of two hotels by police officers within twenty minutes. That's like Mötley Crüe levels of awesome.
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Sorry to say, that quote has been used so often on Slog that its lost relevance, at least for me.
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What the fuck is up with that adverb??? Tell us what you know about danger (feel free to outright school me).
I think you guys might be on to something here, it's like "Think Different" for a new decade.
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Unless Romney voluntarily withdraws or becomes incapacitated, it seems like they are stuck with him.
If it's of any consequence, there are many on the political Right asking the same question. Michael Savage hates Mittens. Hopefully, this will cause many Right wing voters to stay home on Election Day or not mail in their ballots
1) Poll (vote) manipulation.
2) And. There are HUGE swaths of lazy pseudo-liberals, butt-hurt lefties, and twenty somethings that won't or don't vote.
3) Rampant racism.
It will be just a narrow enough margin for Rmoney to squeak by.
I pray that I am wrong. But I don't think I am.
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It's almost as bad as "insanity is doing what you've always done and expecting different results" variously attributed to the above, plus Albert Einstein, Gandhi, Freud, and others I'm probably forgetting.
Don't ever "quote" that either, OK? Thanks.
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i don't care, I'm glad you brought up the insanity quote. Yeah, it's way overused but unlike Mencken's, there's a sting to it that does eat a bit of my core. So I have a proposal. I try to have an affect with my comments, and i usually keep getting the same results. Do I just stop? Say the word, only you, as to whether I shut my trap on Slog for good. If it's yes, I'm gone, scout's honor.
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I think we can expect:
1) Obama will win by several points. (NY Times currently gives him a 76% chance of winning.)
2) There will be a record number of votes for alternative presidential candidates (the latent power of Occupy).
I was actually impressed with some of Obama's comments in the '98 video interview that just surfaced. I guess we'll find out what's really in his heart in his second term. (I'm still voting Stein or Anderson.)
Is the entire SLOG editorial board OK with Constant soliciting contributions for the Obama campaign (while continuing to ignore Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Justice Party candidate Rocky Anderson)? Is such candidate favoritism kosher here?
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How can we identify a non-vote as an act of protest rather than simple apathy?
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Yes, yes, we get that you're a fan of alternative candidates. But don't delude yourself into thinking that any of them will get more than 1% of the vote this time around. None has enough name recognition or backing to make any difference whatsoever in this year's election. Most Occupyers will not bother to vote. Neither Stein nor Anderson will get anywhere near as many votes as Ross Perot or Ralph Nader did. They won't even get enough votes to be spoilers.
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When people organize themselves into groups and try to get others to not vote, they've moved among the ranks of the apathetic, but for different reasons. I don't know how you separate them but the effect is the same; political stagnation. Recall the last election of Apartheid South Africa, turnouts in the single digits, even among enfranchised white voters, at some point the entire thing just imploded when the elections just didn't translate to on the ground realities.
He is Retroactive Man, able to retire 3 yrs prior to when he retired, after retiring. Retroactive Man can drop out of an election before he enters it. Just as Retroactive man can change his position both before and after he makes it.
Never fear Retroactive Man is already back in the race having already dropped out.
Trust this clears this up for you.
Gay Dude for Retroactive Man
I think you're confusing "chance of winning" with "margin of support." 76% sounds huge, it sounds like a landslide number, but it's not a measure of Obama's support, it's a measure of how likely it is that things will flip one way or the other, given how razor-close the race is.
Let's say I'm going to flip a coin twice, and if it comes up tails twice I'm going to shoot you in the head. You have a 75% chance of not getting shot. How comfortable would you feel?
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But, he adds, the fifth coin toss will be the decider. The first four are just practice. He hasn't flipped coins since he was a kid, and wants to give you a fair chance. First flip is heads. So's the second. Third flip is tails. Fourth is heads.
Now comes the fifth flip. Until now, 75% of the flips have been in your favor. How confident are you in the fifth flip?
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