Slog
News & ArtsTuesday, September 18, 2012
2012 "Forget Romney"
Posted by Paul Constant on Tue, Sep 18, 2012 at 10:15 AM
The Miami Herald says that the Florida Republican Party might be worrying about containing the damage from the latest Romney implosion:
Florida Republicans, already nervous about how Romney has performed in the nation's biggest battleground state, are starting to sound despondent. "Forget Romney," one GOP strategist said this morning, "we need to worry about the rest of the ticket."
I wonder how many times this conversation is happening among Republicans today around the country. At some point, local Republicans are going to have to try to protect their House, Senate, and local seats from the disaster at the top of the ticket. I think we're about one major mistake away from that happening, if it isn't happening already.
3
Too bad the local races are often being contested by GOP nitwits that make Mitt look great in comparison. They manage to hurt their own campaigns enough by themselves. Many of them are doubling down on their anti-women, anti-gay, pro-war rhetoric, so it will probably get worse up & down the ticket.
4
This is delicious.
What sucks is Big Media right now. NBC Nightly News last night tried to play off Romney's remarks by invoking the "God and Guns" Obama gaffe. Like it even compares. And CNN keeps saying "It's going to be a close race" over and over again. How many times does he have to fuck up before someone actually says they don't have a fucking chance?
I'm starting to think they have a vested interest in the race being close for the sake of ratings. Reality be damned.
What sucks is Big Media right now. NBC Nightly News last night tried to play off Romney's remarks by invoking the "God and Guns" Obama gaffe. Like it even compares. And CNN keeps saying "It's going to be a close race" over and over again. How many times does he have to fuck up before someone actually says they don't have a fucking chance?
I'm starting to think they have a vested interest in the race being close for the sake of ratings. Reality be damned.
5
There are a series of these videos, and then there are the debates. I was worried that they could make it through an entire campaign without being honest.
7
I was thinking of the Palestine video. It's posted today. Guy doesn't want the job, just the title. Talk about a lazy victim who feels they are entitled to things without working for them. Mitt is the poster child.
8
It is still a close race. Things could still change the polling of the two top candidates.
Signs of "Forget Romney" are his fundraising numbers take a big hit, GOP candidates don't want to share the stage with him, and the GOP House and Senate Campaign committees are going on the Sunday talk shows stating it is important not to give President Obama a blank check.
The Romney campaign and the candidate can rebound from this, but they just made their job much more difficult to win the general election than before the GOP convention. They can't win if they continue these types of gaffes in the campaign, or make very impulsive decisions.
Signs of "Forget Romney" are his fundraising numbers take a big hit, GOP candidates don't want to share the stage with him, and the GOP House and Senate Campaign committees are going on the Sunday talk shows stating it is important not to give President Obama a blank check.
The Romney campaign and the candidate can rebound from this, but they just made their job much more difficult to win the general election than before the GOP convention. They can't win if they continue these types of gaffes in the campaign, or make very impulsive decisions.
9
Seeing all of this through the Slogster prism is not fair. This doubling- and tripling-down in the douchebaggery may not be hurting the Returdlicans that much. Might even help rally the fuckwit troops. Yes, they suck. But as someone said here a few days ago, never underestimate the power of mass stupidity which is stoked by creepy billionaires.
10
@4:
This is playing out exactly like the 2008 election. The media says it is neck and neck all the way to the wire, and then one candidate wins in what is essentially a landslide (relatively speaking with our current electoral realities).
Close races sell, blowouts do not.
This is playing out exactly like the 2008 election. The media says it is neck and neck all the way to the wire, and then one candidate wins in what is essentially a landslide (relatively speaking with our current electoral realities).
Close races sell, blowouts do not.
11
It's all going to come down to about seven states. They're all within the margin of error in the polls right now. Yes, Obama has the momentum, but don't get all excited yet. It's still anybody's game.
12
I've been wondering for a couple weeks now about the feasibility of a political party throwing away their shot at the presidency loudly enough that they're able to sneak in more wins down-ticket.
16
I'm not voting for Romney under any circumstances, but what he needs to do is ignore the political commandment that states a pol can't make a mistake. Please stop explaining that what you meant to say could have been stated "more elegantly." How elegant can you be when you are saying, "Die, dumbasses, die!"
He needs to apologize. He needs to say that what he said sounded heartless, but that he is not a heartless man. Admit to it. Admit that if he had been processing more clearly, he would have never said it. He needs to say he's really sorry to the disabled, to the people who have been looking for work for three years, to people who have been displaced through no fault of their own, to people who have lost their homes and/or gone bankrupt due to medical bills, to people who work 12-16 hours a day at two or more part time jobs just to get by...while he builds an elevator for his cars in his multi-level garage.
I won't make the mistake of calling Romney stupid, but he sure is out of touch with what's it like for many, many people in this country.
He needs to apologize. He needs to say that what he said sounded heartless, but that he is not a heartless man. Admit to it. Admit that if he had been processing more clearly, he would have never said it. He needs to say he's really sorry to the disabled, to the people who have been looking for work for three years, to people who have been displaced through no fault of their own, to people who have lost their homes and/or gone bankrupt due to medical bills, to people who work 12-16 hours a day at two or more part time jobs just to get by...while he builds an elevator for his cars in his multi-level garage.
I won't make the mistake of calling Romney stupid, but he sure is out of touch with what's it like for many, many people in this country.
17
#10, this will NOT be anything like 2008. In the spring of 2008, unemployment rose at the highest rate since World War II, and in the fall the financial crisis hit full force. This spring, unemployment was unchanged, which historically is a very reliable indicator that the incumbent is doomed.
The direction of unemployment in the second quarter of a presidential election year, as measured by those official numbers that are highly inaccurate now but have always been just as inaccurate, has predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1948, except for 1956, which was a special case.
The numbers this year pointed toward a very close election, with Obama losing. And the polls, now that Obama's bounce has totally disappeared, are pointing toward a very close race.
Were Romney's comments about Libya, and about "the 47%," obnoxious and offensive and untrue? Yep. Same goes for the Republican smears about Boston Harbor in 1988, the media's jihad against Gore in '00, and the Swiftboating of Kerry in '04.
You can drink as many gallons of Kool-Aid as you want, but this is not going to be 2008. This is going to be a goddamned fucking close election, and if Obama pulls it out it's going to be even more of an anomaly than when Eisenhower was re-elected in '56 in spite of an uptick in unemployment that spring.
Gloat if you want, but I've got too many dents in the doors from prior youthful false hopes. Obama better get his shit in gear and send his pit bulls out there to rip out Romney's lungs. And not just on MSNBC fer chrissakes.
The direction of unemployment in the second quarter of a presidential election year, as measured by those official numbers that are highly inaccurate now but have always been just as inaccurate, has predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1948, except for 1956, which was a special case.
The numbers this year pointed toward a very close election, with Obama losing. And the polls, now that Obama's bounce has totally disappeared, are pointing toward a very close race.
Were Romney's comments about Libya, and about "the 47%," obnoxious and offensive and untrue? Yep. Same goes for the Republican smears about Boston Harbor in 1988, the media's jihad against Gore in '00, and the Swiftboating of Kerry in '04.
You can drink as many gallons of Kool-Aid as you want, but this is not going to be 2008. This is going to be a goddamned fucking close election, and if Obama pulls it out it's going to be even more of an anomaly than when Eisenhower was re-elected in '56 in spite of an uptick in unemployment that spring.
Gloat if you want, but I've got too many dents in the doors from prior youthful false hopes. Obama better get his shit in gear and send his pit bulls out there to rip out Romney's lungs. And not just on MSNBC fer chrissakes.
18
Mister G, do you want to bet? I'll bet Obama wins with a margin of at least 2% of the popular vote, and at least 50 electoral votes. We don't have to be for money: if I win, all you have to is apologize for being such an obnoxious twat. You can name my forfeit. I'll agree to whatever.
19
Nah, 2% is within the margin of error, even in a close race. I think it'll be a lot closer, but even that would be close. I'd take it at 3% though. If I win, you have to admit to be a typical self-deluded, Kool-Aid drinking Seattle "progressive" without a clue. Hell, as far as being an obnoxious twat goes, I'll plead guilty to that one right now. You really ought to reach higher.
20
I'll agree to 3%, on the condition that you then stop being an obnoxious twat. I'm afraid I won't be able to agree to your terms, though, as I'm not from Seattle, and have never ever set foot within 300 miles of it.
The fact that you're wrong about the election Mister Not-Nate-Silver-And-Therefore-Has-No-Reason-To-Pretend-To-Be-A-Brilliant-Statistician/Politico is not nearly as annoying as you misreading the intention of these posts, and everyone commenting on them, and assuming that anyone who is even slightly optimistic as a deluded progressive. The election can still flip, but it is not close. You cannot honestly believe that the Gallup poll is an exact predictor of what the election results would be if held today. So stop fucking saying that. Moreover, nobody here is letting up the pressure. We're all just amazed that like in 2008, the Republican candidate continually makes poor decision after poor decision. I was not convinced of near certain Obama victory in 2008 until the end of October, but that doesn't mean I wasn't frequently assured of it's likelihood when Sarah Palin couldn't name a single fucking Supreme Court case that she disagreed with. The same thing is happening this year. Nobody is taking anything for granted. But just look at how fucking awful Mitt Romney is, and how terrific Obama looks in comparison. What dead girl is going to suddenly pop up now to break this months long trend?
You are not as savvy as you think you are. Read more, and talk less.
The fact that you're wrong about the election Mister Not-Nate-Silver-And-Therefore-Has-No-Reason-To-Pretend-To-Be-A-Brilliant-Statistician/Politico is not nearly as annoying as you misreading the intention of these posts, and everyone commenting on them, and assuming that anyone who is even slightly optimistic as a deluded progressive. The election can still flip, but it is not close. You cannot honestly believe that the Gallup poll is an exact predictor of what the election results would be if held today. So stop fucking saying that. Moreover, nobody here is letting up the pressure. We're all just amazed that like in 2008, the Republican candidate continually makes poor decision after poor decision. I was not convinced of near certain Obama victory in 2008 until the end of October, but that doesn't mean I wasn't frequently assured of it's likelihood when Sarah Palin couldn't name a single fucking Supreme Court case that she disagreed with. The same thing is happening this year. Nobody is taking anything for granted. But just look at how fucking awful Mitt Romney is, and how terrific Obama looks in comparison. What dead girl is going to suddenly pop up now to break this months long trend?
You are not as savvy as you think you are. Read more, and talk less.
21
Fuck you, #20. I will never stop being an obnoxious twat to the Kool-Aid drinking, fake "progressive" morons in Seattle.
Hey, tell me: How old are you? 19? And what's your I.Q.? 90? I never wrote that the Gallup poll is "an exact predictor" of anything, you grade-school dropout. You have to look at the trend of the numbers, fuckwit. Obama's convention bounce is history. He's back to where he was, and it has happened while Moroni's campaign has supposedly been imploding.
Now, I have no respect for any Kool-Aid drinker, but I have less than zero respect for a stupid one like you. Pull up your pants and get back to the fourth grade.
Hey, tell me: How old are you? 19? And what's your I.Q.? 90? I never wrote that the Gallup poll is "an exact predictor" of anything, you grade-school dropout. You have to look at the trend of the numbers, fuckwit. Obama's convention bounce is history. He's back to where he was, and it has happened while Moroni's campaign has supposedly been imploding.
Now, I have no respect for any Kool-Aid drinker, but I have less than zero respect for a stupid one like you. Pull up your pants and get back to the fourth grade.
22
p.s.: Or, I should say, the Kool-Aid drinking, fake "progressive" morons who live 300 miles away but, for some reason, feel a personal compulsion to post their idiocy on a Seattle blog.
23
You have posted on at least four threads the exact same line linking to the Gallup poll as though that was the only polling information available, and declared that Obama's lead has vanished entirely. Yes, you did say that the Gallup is an exact predictor of the election. It's not my fault you don't know how to say what you mean, or mean what you say.
So, you want to look at the trend of the numbers? Great! Here you go: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com…
If you can provide a cogent argument disproving one thing Nate Silver says, then maybe you'll have some ground to stand on. But that's the motherfucker of all trendspotters right there, and you're wrong. Entirely.
I also didn't say I lived 300 miles away. Now, one might make a reasonable assumption as to my location based on my username here. It would be wrong, but it would be reasonable. No reasonable reading of my post would indicate what you inferred, but I guess that just means that you're as bad at reading as you are at maths.
Again, you should really read more. You might get better at it.
So, you want to look at the trend of the numbers? Great! Here you go: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com…
If you can provide a cogent argument disproving one thing Nate Silver says, then maybe you'll have some ground to stand on. But that's the motherfucker of all trendspotters right there, and you're wrong. Entirely.
I also didn't say I lived 300 miles away. Now, one might make a reasonable assumption as to my location based on my username here. It would be wrong, but it would be reasonable. No reasonable reading of my post would indicate what you inferred, but I guess that just means that you're as bad at reading as you are at maths.
Again, you should really read more. You might get better at it.
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