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Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Politics SurveyUSA: Leads Widen for Gay Marriage, Pot, Democratic Governor

Posted by Dominic Holden on Tue, Sep 11, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Here's a poll that should make liberals smile—mostly. SurveyUSA released the results of a KING 5-sponsored poll today that shows voters trending to the left on two huge Washington State ballot measures while increasingly backing the Democratic candidates for governor and attorney general.

1. Most dramatically: The measure to legalize same-sex marriage has taken a leap from only 50 percent support with a seven-point lead in July to a 56 percent support with an 18-point lead today. Today's poll is here and the July poll is here.

My TCW: Progressives would be stupid to take Referendum 74's lead for granted, or underestimate the fear-campaigning expected from religious conservatives to drive down that lead by November. But this poll may mark a gay-rights trend much larger than Washington State: This survey was conducted in the three days following the Democratic National Convention, an event marked by the country's political leaders delivering speeches embracing marriage equality as the keystone of progressive (even mainstream) ideology; the result may be a national climate shift that plays out to make 2012 the first year in US history that same-sex marriage is approved at the ballot. Maine is also voting on marriage equality this year.

2. In more stoned news, support for Initiative 502 to legalize marijuana possession, cultivation, and sales has bumped up to earn the support of 57 percent of voters, up from 55 percent in July. Meanwhile, undecided voters have shrunk from 13 to 9 percent. If anything, it shows the medical-marijuana industry's dishonest campaigning against I-502 appears to have been unnoticed—or proven counter effective—to the general electorate. This bodes well for national groups who may consider dumping more money into I-502 in an effort to make this the first state to legalize marijuana.

3. Hoo boy! Democrat Jay Inslee's lead is reportedly gaining ground in the governor's race against Rob McKenna. Inslee was leading by only 1 percent in July, 42 to 41 percent (after having trailed for months). But now he's got 49 percent support, five points ahead of McKenna. The poll has a 4.4 percent margin of error. Seven percent of voters still say they're undecided.

4. Bob Ferguson, who is running for state attorney general as a Democrat, has apparently broken out of the deadlock with Republican Reagan Dunn. While they were tied at 37 percent in July, now Ferguson leads 42 percent to 33 percent (after Dunn got creamed in the primary election).

But that's where the fun stops, pinkos. Charter schools have a 26-point lead, with the support of 52 percent of voters; that's up from 46 percent support two months ago. Meanwhile, Tim Eyman's appetizing-yet-poisonous biennial attempt to restrict the legislature's ability to raise taxes, this time called Initiative 1185, is leading by a hilariously wide 37 points, with a total of 58 percent of the vote.

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Comments (24) RSS

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R-74 is up 18, not 23. Great news either way...but no way full marriage will actually pass by 18 points only a few years after R-71 passed by 5. This issue just over-polls. We can take nothing for granted.

Posted by Bainbridger on September 11, 2012 at 12:07 PM

@1) Thank you and fixed. Math!

Posted by Dominic Holden on September 11, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Maryland is also voting on marriage equality. And Minnesota is voting on a constitutional amendment banning equality.

Posted by peldred on September 11, 2012 at 12:14 PM

1185: Decipmur Specie Recti.

Posted by Max Solomon on September 11, 2012 at 12:24 PM

A Democratic wave with victories down the ticket, feels like '96.

Posted by biffp on September 11, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Fantastic news - all around!

But I have a question for you more poll-savy types. The age composition of the people polled for "likely voters" is as follows:

18-34 = 24%
35-49 = 27%
50-64 = 31%
65+ = 18%

Now I keep reading how the greyhairs have nothing to do but sit on their porch, yell at the whippersnappers, and vote. While the hipster kids are too busy trying to put on they skinny jeans to vote.

But, this likely voter composition seems to go the opposite way. Can anyone comment?

Posted by troubletown71 on September 11, 2012 at 12:24 PM

The charter school polls are depressing. Remember, the charter school movement is, for all intents and purposes, a right wing campaign to privatize k-12 education into a profit making venture, with taxpayers footing the bill. Like most right wing policies, the real agenda is to distribute and concentrate taxpayer money into executive and investor bank accounts. Improving schools is, I do not think, a priority for the bankrollers of this campaign. Helping kids get an good education is not a goal of the charter school movement. Making profits from taxpayers is, among other reasons.

For all of you on the fence, here are some recent stories to consider:

http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/09/11/c…

http://dissenter.firedoglake.com/2012/09…

Posted by screed on September 11, 2012 at 12:39 PM

So...Washington voters don't want the state to tell them whom they may marry, what they may put in their body, to what kinds of schools they may not send their children, or how much of their money they get to keep.

Sounds reasonable to me.

Posted by bleedingheartlibertarian on September 11, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Yay WA! Y'all go! We're* all pullin' for you down here in Nikkiland!

*We're = Liberal Southerners who have to look outside their own borders for good state-specific political news.

Posted by The Max on September 11, 2012 at 12:51 PM

@6: Consider population distribution by age (2010 census data):

18-34: 31% (vs. 26% in poll)
35-49: 27% (vs. 27%)
50-64: 26% (vs. 31%)
65+: 16% (vs. 18%)

So the pollsters are considering that 50+ are more likely to vote than 18-34s. Are they skewing the distribution enough? I don't know.

Posted by digitalwitch on September 11, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Good point. I'd guess that some of the paranoid anti I-502 arguments (legal limits for drivers, etc.) are actually winning the measure support among those otherwise less inclined to support legalization.

Posted by Josh Bis

on September 11, 2012 at 12:56 PM

It is the anti-I502's histrionics which got me to switch sides. That and I actually did my research on the initiative.

Posted by Hawke

on September 11, 2012 at 1:23 PM

SUSA notoriously has shitty sample compositions so I wouldn't delve too deeply into the poll demos.

Posted by 01035 on September 11, 2012 at 1:30 PM

According to the poll, only 54% of likely voters in metro Seattle supported pot legalization, vs. 59% in the rest of Western WA and 63% in Eastern WA. Can this be?

Posted by I thought us Seattle liberals were the stoners on September 11, 2012 at 1:49 PM

@10

Makes sense. According to your figures, this is consistent with the notion that older folk vote more than the young folk, so I now feel better about this.

I wonder what the national polling surveys or Nate SIlver use for their age-group proportions for their likely voter groups.

Posted by troubletown71 on September 11, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Something rolling around in my head: Do we have Citizens United to thank for these numbers? It could be that the reason we're not getting carpet-bombed by out-of-state-funded anti-74 and anti-502 ads is that all that money can now go into SuperPACs to be spent on the national races, and they're busy going for broke, as it were, for Romney and the GOP Senate candidate in more competitive states.

Not that I'm a fan of CU. I just think this may be the silver lining of putting big issues in a presidential cycle.

Posted by 14limes on September 11, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Derp, didn't see @13.

Posted by @14 on September 11, 2012 at 2:12 PM

REFERENDUM 71
- September 2009 poll by the Approve 71 campaign and conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR): 51% approve and 44% reject [+7]
- October 2009 GQR poll (N = 500 likely voters): 53% approve and 36% reject [+17]
- October 2009 poll by Survey USA: 50% approve and 43% reject [+7]

Final results: 53.15% approve and 46.85% reject [+6.3]

REFERENDUM 74
- Jan 2012 poll by Survey USA: 47% approve and 46% reject [+1]
- May 2012 poll by Strategies 360: 54% approve and 33% reject [+12]
- June 2012 poll by PPP: 51% approve and 42% reject [+9]
- Sept 2012 poll by Survey USA: 56% approve and 38% reject [+18]

One could speculate, based on the Ref 71 data, that the “approve” numbers in these polls tend to accurate assess the level of support. By contrast, the “reject” figures are likely underestimated as people don’t want to appear bigoted and instead respond “unsure/dpn’t know” when they fully intend to reject the referendum.

Combined with the fact that this is a major election year and that we will hopefully have better turn-out when compared with 2009, I interpret this as meaning that we really have a decent shot at marriage equality in Washington State in less than 2 months. Just have muster everything we have for that last stretch and respond vigorously to the inevitable “they are coming for your children” ad campaign.

Posted by troubletown71 on September 11, 2012 at 2:19 PM

@7 I'm a bit confused, as I'd understood charter schools to still be administered by the public school administration, but merely to offer a wider range of options to parents based on their kids' interests and abilities (e.g. fine arts or science and engineering oriented schools, or gender segregated, etc. etc.) which always made them seem like a decent compromise with the voucher crowd trying to shove subsidies into religious schools and the like.

Posted by Corydon on September 11, 2012 at 2:22 PM

@19, so we should pander to a kids or parents abilities and interests? That is what college is for. Public education k to 12 is to develop a group of educated citizens who have a basic well rounded education to be fairly functional in society. And that is done by doing work that may not fit into the child's interests or abilities.

I think the idea of having more specialized programs in addition is a good idea to ADD to a basic k-12 education but it should never be the focus or be used to replace a core education.

Teaching a kid all about playing flute or engineering without teaching them how to think makes for floutists (?) and engineers who can't think beyond the boundries of their skill set.

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on September 11, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Breakdown of King5 poll: Men evenly split (47/47) on same-sex marriage referendum, Women approve (65% to 29%).

Posted by Keister Button on September 11, 2012 at 5:23 PM

I don't know why you're surprised by the charter school polling, given all of the Seattle School financial scandals the past year or so. Charter schools may not be ideal, but why should people keep supporting such a dysfunctional school board? Until they get their shit together, people will continue to jump on the charter school bandwagon.

Posted by Not a parent, not a fan of SSD on September 11, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Also, is it just me, or is the 18-34 age demographic polled in this SurveyUSA release fairly conservative ?

Posted by Keister Button on September 11, 2012 at 6:58 PM

"I'm a bit confused, as I'd understood charter schools to still be administered by the public school administration, but merely to offer a wider range of options to parents based on their kids' interests and abilities (e.g. fine arts or science and engineering oriented schools, or gender segregated, etc. etc.) "

Nope. Charters will NOT be administered by public school administration. That's the point.

They will be privately run by non-profits who can farm out management and educational services to for-profits. They may or may not be overseen by anyone elected as the only two authorizers are school boards or the new Charter Commission that has NO oversight, elected or otherwise.

Most charters do not offer mass arts or STEM and are not gender-selected. Most are segregated, most serve fewer ELL and Special Ed students (and the initiative totally ignored homeless students even as they have the federal law on their side).

If you think this is bone to toss to conservatives, you're wrong. First, do no harm. 1240 will harm far more students than it could ever help and there are ZERO guarantees that they will serve any at-risk kids.

It forces districts will buildings for sell or lease to give charters first right of refusal for them at or BELOW market value. You like selling public buildings for less than they are worth?

1240 allows an approved charter to take over ANY existing school, failing or not, with a majority of signatures from either parents OR teachers in the school. They take the school over, building and all (and rent-free, too).

So in an average elementary you have 18 teachers. Ten could sign a petition to flip an entire school community.

We've said no to charters three times for good reason.

According to the WA State Supreme Court, the Legislature underfunds our schools. We don't even fund to the national average. How will bringing on more underfunded charters help (while thinning the pot for money for already struggling schools)?

Hard to understand how anyone could support this initiative in its current form. Not the Washington State PTA. Not the League of Women Voters. Not the NAACP or El Centro de la Raza.

More...

Posted by westello on September 11, 2012 at 8:52 PM