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News & ArtsFriday, September 7, 2012
2012 / Economy Some Perspective on Some Perspective on Those Jobs Numbers
Posted by Goldy on Fri, Sep 7, 2012 at 9:12 AM
Just two months before the November election, jobs growth remains anemic and unemployment is mired about 8 percent—economic markers that history tells us augur doom for the incumbent. And yet despite the weak economy and relentless Republican super PAC spending in swing states, President Obama remains steadily and comfortably ahead in the electoral college race.
Why? Partially it's the Republicans' message, and partially it's demographics. But most of all I think it's the poor quality of GOP bench. Obama could be defeated by a worthy opponent. But Mitt Romney isn't one. And I think many Republicans sense this, let alone the swing voters who will ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
1
Do they even have a worthy opponent? Is Marco Rubio all that? Because their superstars--Christie, Jindal, Ryan--definitely aren't.
2
I agree with Goldy. Obama has turned out to be a distinctly Jimmy Carterist president, but Mittens is no Ronald Reagan.
4
That's great @3, but meanwhile he's pulled out of both MI & PA, so, you know, don't stop believing...
6
HorsesAss shows South Carolina in the light blue category. Strange. Nobody else is showing that. Has Obama 302, Romeny 236
2070towin has Obama 201, Romney 191.
Real Clear Politics has Obama 221, Romney 191
Washington Post has (solid + leaning) Obama 237, Romney 206
NBC has (solid + leaning) Obama 237, Romney 191
I suggest you use resources in addition to your old stomping grounds Goldy.
2070towin has Obama 201, Romney 191.
Real Clear Politics has Obama 221, Romney 191
Washington Post has (solid + leaning) Obama 237, Romney 206
NBC has (solid + leaning) Obama 237, Romney 191
I suggest you use resources in addition to your old stomping grounds Goldy.
9
According to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight, it's economic change that matters more than economic status for incumbent reelection, and by the numbers he's been running, Obama would be expected to win in general and is leading by about the amount expected based on the economy. The economy still does have serious issues, but it has also improved a ~lot~ during Obama's time in office. Bush gave us a recession (with the help of Clinton, I admit. Clinton's big mistake was compromising with Republicans too much, and the bank deregulation he passed to be more centrist and less left-leaning helped create the conditions for the recession) and Obama prevented the double-dip recession (with the help of the first Bush bail-out and the Fed's actions) and put us on a path of recovery. It's not as drastic a recovery as would be nice, but FDR style new deal measures are pretty much impossible to pass these days.
10
@3&6,
Thank you. I've been mostly watching 538 because They're incredibly accurate but I'm aware they have a personal bias. It's nice to see that everyone else also shows Obama winning. Thanks for the confidence boost.
Thank you. I've been mostly watching 538 because They're incredibly accurate but I'm aware they have a personal bias. It's nice to see that everyone else also shows Obama winning. Thanks for the confidence boost.
12
@6:
Darryl has SC in pale blue because he uses only legitimate state-specific polls for his database. South Carolina hasn't been polled for well over a year, so he has no recent data on the state.
In his text, he often laments that nobody has polled the state.
Darryl has SC in pale blue because he uses only legitimate state-specific polls for his database. South Carolina hasn't been polled for well over a year, so he has no recent data on the state.
In his text, he often laments that nobody has polled the state.
13
Any comparison that uses the "since WW2" or "since the Great Depression" formulation is going to be inherently flawed.
So, yes, no president "since the Great Depression" has been re-elected with an 8% unemployment rate, but...
...the last time we had a comparable economic downturn was DURING the Great Depression!
And during the Great Depression remember, if we're looking for historical comparisons, Roosevelt was reelected --with over 14% unemployment rate-- TWICE!
So, yes, no president "since the Great Depression" has been re-elected with an 8% unemployment rate, but...
...the last time we had a comparable economic downturn was DURING the Great Depression!
And during the Great Depression remember, if we're looking for historical comparisons, Roosevelt was reelected --with over 14% unemployment rate-- TWICE!
14
DNC highlight reel ----
1- Clinton making the case that:
Obama hasn't gotten the job done-not even close- but, hey!- even a demigod like me couldn't have done it.....(plus reminding everyone how much they miss Bill and what a limp noodle Obama is)
2- The vicious snarling angry rank and file Democraps rejecting God and Jerusalem (with the yummy icing of the total fiasco hamfisted clumsy way in which it was handled, managing to Piss Off and Disgust, literally, every band on the ideological spectrum- the Godless Heathens know they had the votes to defeat the measure but were screwed over and ignored and humiliated and Godfearing Real America not at all fooled by the cosmetic repair to the platform.)
Priceless.........
3- Obama's limp speech, confirming the impression of inadequacy created by Bill's boffo performance and hinting at the job numbers to come....
4- the truly frighteningly GRIM job numbers that rushed in before the hangovers were even gone mocking the Democraps party.
damn. You couldn't make up stuff this good.......
1- Clinton making the case that:
Obama hasn't gotten the job done-not even close- but, hey!- even a demigod like me couldn't have done it.....(plus reminding everyone how much they miss Bill and what a limp noodle Obama is)
2- The vicious snarling angry rank and file Democraps rejecting God and Jerusalem (with the yummy icing of the total fiasco hamfisted clumsy way in which it was handled, managing to Piss Off and Disgust, literally, every band on the ideological spectrum- the Godless Heathens know they had the votes to defeat the measure but were screwed over and ignored and humiliated and Godfearing Real America not at all fooled by the cosmetic repair to the platform.)
Priceless.........
3- Obama's limp speech, confirming the impression of inadequacy created by Bill's boffo performance and hinting at the job numbers to come....
4- the truly frighteningly GRIM job numbers that rushed in before the hangovers were even gone mocking the Democraps party.
damn. You couldn't make up stuff this good.......
15
@10: In other words:
"Obama's got the lead, and Romney's not a good enough candidate to beat him. So my best hope is that Obama fucks up somewhere."
"Obama's got the lead, and Romney's not a good enough candidate to beat him. So my best hope is that Obama fucks up somewhere."
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