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Thursday, September 6, 2012

2012 Romney Employs the Pull-Out Method

Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, Sep 6, 2012 at 8:59 AM

The good news is that Romney and the Republican Party have pulled their advertising from Michigan and Pennsylvania:

The Romney campaign and conservative groups like Crossroads GPS have pulled TV ads in Michigan, Romney’s home state, according to the Detroit News.

Nor are the campaign and super PACs running advertising in Pennsylvania, after unleashing a barrage there over the past five months.

This means that Republican internal polling is probably worse than the polling we've seen so far for those two states and Republicans think they're hopeless. But this isn't the out-and-out good news that McCain pulling out of Michigan was in October of 2008. In fact, the bad news is pretty bad: It means they're just going to spend that much more in Ohio and Florida.

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It's important to note that Obama can lose Florida and Ohio (and Nevada and Iowa and North Carolina) and still win:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_pr…

Posted by IStillDream on September 6, 2012 at 9:08 AM

So, they either think the voter suppression law in PA will be so successful that they don't need to advertise or else they know that even that law can't counter the fact that Romney is so unlikable that he can't get people to vote for him.

Posted by Root on September 6, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Kind of sounds like they're not going all out in Ohio at this point, either. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-…

Posted by pablissima on September 6, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Damn! For outside groups which are forbidden to coordinate their campaigns with the candidates, the Republicans sure do have a lot of coincidences!

On a related note, Nate Silver has been publishing a very salient metric for some time now -- a projected return-on-investment map which reflects the tipping-point status of each state, number of electoral votes, etc. In other words, where campaign money would be best spent. (For the record, no, there hasn't been any recent change in the status of Michigan and Pennsylvania, so that can't be why the R's pulled out just now.)

Posted by Brooklyn Reader on September 6, 2012 at 11:00 AM

@2 - Community organizations in the big cities (most Democratic leaning) are being really aggressive in PA with helping people to get the proper ID to vote. One of my former teachers is working with the local Democratic party in Pittsburgh to specifically target the college campuses and the churches and community centers in the majority African-American neighborhoods are really putting forth the effort. In addition, organizations like the JCC, senior centers, and veterans organizations are working with the populations they serve.

From everything I've seen, PA is leaning pretty solidly toward Obama at this point.

Posted by Sheryl on September 6, 2012 at 11:54 AM

If they don't think even mass disenfranchisement can get them PA, that's saying a lot.

Posted by I have always been... east coaster on September 9, 2012 at 10:16 AM