Slog
News & ArtsFriday, August 31, 2012
7
Marco Rubio can't be nominated by the GOP, since his narrative (a grandfather who immigrated to the US illegally) runs counter to one of the GOP's strongest support bases. This would be the equivalent of running a married gay man as the GOP Presidential candidate.
It won't be Ryan. Aside from Nixon, the general pattern is that if you've lost one general election contrast, you're not going to win the next one either. Nothing succeeds like success, and nothing fails like failure.
Palin and Paul are out because they're just too batty to appeal to non-Republicans. Satan might win in the primary, but would have a difficult time in the general since the majority of non-Republicans don't think he's real or consider him to be a non-factor even if he is. In other words, they feel the same about him as they do Romney.
That just leaves Jeb Bush. I think the Bush family would have a strong investment in seeing that happen, since the election would be a referendum on whether the voting public will ever forgive his brother.
It won't be Ryan. Aside from Nixon, the general pattern is that if you've lost one general election contrast, you're not going to win the next one either. Nothing succeeds like success, and nothing fails like failure.
Palin and Paul are out because they're just too batty to appeal to non-Republicans. Satan might win in the primary, but would have a difficult time in the general since the majority of non-Republicans don't think he's real or consider him to be a non-factor even if he is. In other words, they feel the same about him as they do Romney.
That just leaves Jeb Bush. I think the Bush family would have a strong investment in seeing that happen, since the election would be a referendum on whether the voting public will ever forgive his brother.
8
Actually it could be a gay married man, as long as he was happily married to a woman.
http://gawker.com/5917022/
http://gawker.com/5917022/
12
It'll be Huckabee. Loony and as completely out to lunch as Michele Bachmann, but slightly less crazy-seeming.
14
I (rather optimistically) think that this year might be the highwater point for the Tea Party strain of Republicanism. Demographics are going against them so that being the party of white people isn't going to do it for them anymore, shifting public opinion and the reduction in the overall white vote makes demonizing gays and women a losing proposition (they need to appeal to white women and people of all kinds who aren't bigots.)
Low taxes and beating up on the poor, and lies about "reforming entitlements" for the middle class, though, that's always a winner. So I'd expect them to shift toward a hate-the-poor and stab the middle class in the back stance that is moderated by less social conservatism and a more inclusive batch of spokespeople. Mark Rubio's less-than-reactionary views on immigration will be more in vogue for Republicans in four years. Jeb Bush, despite being a white guy, seems to have some appeal beyond that core. Even Chris Christie can be in a room with non-white people without seeming awkward. Really white guys who are uncomfortable when they're not surrounded by white guys, such as Paul Ryan and Rand Paul, are VP material at best. It'll probably be some governor with a currently low profile, though, rather than any of these jokers.
The more intereesting question is who the Democrats will run, whether or not they win this time. Elizabeth Warren, if she wins her Senate seat, is likely the great liberal hope next time, but can she appeal nationwide? Hillary Clinton would probably win over a lot of people, and it's her "turn," but she's a bit old and her claims that she's not running are convincing so far. Joe Biden? He might try, but he's not going anywhere. So who else is there?
Low taxes and beating up on the poor, and lies about "reforming entitlements" for the middle class, though, that's always a winner. So I'd expect them to shift toward a hate-the-poor and stab the middle class in the back stance that is moderated by less social conservatism and a more inclusive batch of spokespeople. Mark Rubio's less-than-reactionary views on immigration will be more in vogue for Republicans in four years. Jeb Bush, despite being a white guy, seems to have some appeal beyond that core. Even Chris Christie can be in a room with non-white people without seeming awkward. Really white guys who are uncomfortable when they're not surrounded by white guys, such as Paul Ryan and Rand Paul, are VP material at best. It'll probably be some governor with a currently low profile, though, rather than any of these jokers.
The more intereesting question is who the Democrats will run, whether or not they win this time. Elizabeth Warren, if she wins her Senate seat, is likely the great liberal hope next time, but can she appeal nationwide? Hillary Clinton would probably win over a lot of people, and it's her "turn," but she's a bit old and her claims that she's not running are convincing so far. Joe Biden? He might try, but he's not going anywhere. So who else is there?
19
@9, I up-voted the Big S because, whatever birth-body wins, Beelzebub will be buyin' out the franchise.
22
Rubio could have had an Obama moment last night, becoming a rising GOP star the way Obama's popularity surged after his speech at the Dem convention in '04. But the way the crowd cheered his Spanish phrases, like they were a parlor trick, leads me to believe they're not ready to embrace him.
24
@15 - Good point, but the Republicans are great at rationalizing things away. I'm sure they'll find a way to convince themselves that Huckabee was the "real" victim there.
Maybe they'll run Jon Voight with Victoria Jackson as his vp.
Maybe they'll run Jon Voight with Victoria Jackson as his vp.
25
@14, on the contrary, if Romney loses the teabag strain will be convinced it's because he's old money Wall Street and not a True Believer in the Gospel According to Tea. They'll double down. They'll openly campaign on a strict-creationist line, and they'll get SLAUGHTERED. Only then will semi-rational Republicans start coming out of the woodwork; whether to get the GOP back on track, or to form a new party, I dunno. Whether that heals the split, I dunno. On the one hand, the Stupid Party is numerous and powerful; on the other, they're easily led.
26
#7, #9 the reason why Satan isn't leading the 2016 polls is because he already won the 2012 nomination. Once he loses in November, the Republican pundits won't be so eager to run him again.
I vote for Clint Eastwood. The only Republican who actually articulated the RNC platform and strategy with total clarity.
I vote for Clint Eastwood. The only Republican who actually articulated the RNC platform and strategy with total clarity.
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