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News & ArtsFriday, July 6, 2012
Politics / Election First CD Race Turns Negative
Posted by Goldy on Fri, Jul 6, 2012 at 12:01 AM
I figured the crowded 1st Congressional District race was bound to turn negative eventually, because, you know, negative campaigning works. I just hadn't figured it would be a Super PAC independent expenditure targeting Suzan DelBene.
The mailer attacking DelBene's business record was sent out by a group called Progress for Washington, whose treasurer, Jeremy Pemble, is also a contributor to Laura Ruderman. According to a July 5 FEC filing, the PAC reported spending $21,328.38, enough to print and post about 40,000 to 50,000 mailers. I'd been told by a couple sources that Ruderman had been hinting to people that something big was coming. No idea if this is what she was allegedly talking about.
Interesting.
4
I got this in the mail, got to research this but leaning to DelBene
How do they decide who to mail these flyers to?
How do they decide who to mail these flyers to?
6
WTF is with repeat-faliure candidates running for office around here? DelBene, Burner, Koster, etc etc etc.
How about SOMEONE ELSE, SOMEONE ELSE!!!
How about SOMEONE ELSE, SOMEONE ELSE!!!
7
I would be interested to see what consulting firm they are using. That add looks a lot like the ones put up by Moxie Media during the 2010 debacle.
8
@4 the Washington dept of State sells data to anyone willing to buy. The data won't show voter history but a pretty simple data analysis will show their demographics. The campaign takes it from there. At this scale, they're just mailing to all registered voters within the precinct.
10
" because, you know, negative campaigning works"
Works for you, so well that you are occasionally prevented from entering a press conference. If they have an R by their name or a competitor to Apple, its worthy of your mud.
Works for you, so well that you are occasionally prevented from entering a press conference. If they have an R by their name or a competitor to Apple, its worthy of your mud.
12
@4 & 8 - It's actually a lot more refined than mailing to all registered voters. That would be pointless in the District because Koster has a strong lock on the most solid Rs.
Both of the political parties, and most consulting firms, have access to software that allows them to pull up records like how often a given person votes, whether they vote in primary elections or just general, or both, and their age, household size, and other data sometimes including past political activity... and then they come up with a likely political lean for that person. You can search based on any of those categories, or build a query that gives you every voter that meets those requirements.
These mailers would have gone out to solid democratic voters and probably swing voters, probably a middle aged set (avoiding the very liberal younger voters and the more conservative older voters), and they might have focused on women to capitalize on the fears about the economy.
Getting a list of middle aged women who have a solid voting record (3/4 general elections, and 3/4 primaries) who live in democrat leaning areas, would be easy using the software. Then you export that list to an excel sheet and send it to your printer who slaps it on the mailers and you're most of the way done.
Both of the political parties, and most consulting firms, have access to software that allows them to pull up records like how often a given person votes, whether they vote in primary elections or just general, or both, and their age, household size, and other data sometimes including past political activity... and then they come up with a likely political lean for that person. You can search based on any of those categories, or build a query that gives you every voter that meets those requirements.
These mailers would have gone out to solid democratic voters and probably swing voters, probably a middle aged set (avoiding the very liberal younger voters and the more conservative older voters), and they might have focused on women to capitalize on the fears about the economy.
Getting a list of middle aged women who have a solid voting record (3/4 general elections, and 3/4 primaries) who live in democrat leaning areas, would be easy using the software. Then you export that list to an excel sheet and send it to your printer who slaps it on the mailers and you're most of the way done.
13
I'm a little surprised that it's Delbene they're smearing, considering that Darcy has led the Democrats in every single poll published publicly. Ruderman is the most likely candidate for Delbene defectors to go to, I just don't think there'd be enough of them to make up Darcy's lead.
14
I applaud this aggressive move which is highly informative also. Obviously Ruderman has to knock off delbene; the contrast between the two is a class contrast; this is delbene's weakness; and ruderman smartly is talking class conflict, positioning herself to a general election message that's about jobs, the liemythsof the onepercenters, all useful to attack the republican. sure, some of the defectors don't go to ruderman. but what else is ruderman to do? ignore delbene? run on a goody two shoes platform, keep it vague? when you're in a four way fight, you need to seize attention and media interst by doing something. if it's a message about how the rich and the one percenters' job creation talk is a bunch of lies, this is actually far more important as a progressive step forward than darcy burner's speeches or her generic talk. why isn't she attacking delbene? ruderman has to make the case she'll fight more for the middle class. starting to do it by.....doing it....instead of just talking about it is a great move. I will send her $50 today.
17
@16: It's listed as a Super-PAC.
Also, Goldy, do you have the rights to reproduce that mail piece?
Or is it just your own form of going negative for Darcy in the guise of 'real reporting?' ;)
Seriously though, I think this mailer says a fair amount about who Laura is worried about. And as @14 sai, it's aggressive. Sounds exactly like her. I mean, no one likes to go negative. The only time someone goes negative is when they're feeling the pressure and are stuck in a corner with nowhere else to go.
I mean, did you see the ST piece? What's with her ethics violation? Does she have a response to that?
Also, Goldy, do you have the rights to reproduce that mail piece?
Or is it just your own form of going negative for Darcy in the guise of 'real reporting?' ;)
Seriously though, I think this mailer says a fair amount about who Laura is worried about. And as @14 sai, it's aggressive. Sounds exactly like her. I mean, no one likes to go negative. The only time someone goes negative is when they're feeling the pressure and are stuck in a corner with nowhere else to go.
I mean, did you see the ST piece? What's with her ethics violation? Does she have a response to that?
18
@ 8 ans 12 Thanks for the info, I'm a solid dem in my 20s so I guess some young voters got it, but I'm sure it probably did go to middle age voters mostly.
@ 6 Delbene only lost once.
@ 6 Delbene only lost once.
19
I'm wondering if John Koster or the Koch Brothers were secretly funding this attack, because they are the ones who gain from it.
21
@17 - Where is it "listed" as a Super PAC? Is it a PAC - of course, but unless its funders are corporations (or other groups that couldn't spend politically on Federal races prior to the odious Citizens United decision), I don't see how this is any different from independent expenditures we've seen in races like this in many elections previous.
22
@21: A Super-PAC doesn't refer to size. It's a term defined as an "Independent Expenditure-Only Political Committee," as opposed to a regular PAC which is allowed to give money directly to candidate or initiatives, etc.
As for where is it "listed;" I just saw it on Politico's website as Super PAC. http://bit.ly/OeXRYD
As for where is it "listed;" I just saw it on Politico's website as Super PAC. http://bit.ly/OeXRYD
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