• Grove Insight for SEIU and WFSE

Okay, the usual caveats: It's a partisan poll conducted seven months before the election, so giant salt lick and all that, but groups generally don't commission polls in order to deceive themselves, so it's not total bullshit.

This analysis is based on 500 interviews among Washington registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2012 general election. The survey was conducted March 26-28, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Inslee Has a Slim Four-Point Lead Over McKenna
While the race remains tight, Inslee now holds a slim four point lead lead over McKenna (Inslee 38%; McKenna 34%). Undecided voters make up 28% of the electorate. These numbers mark a four point drop in McKenna’s support since our last poll (February 21-23, 2012).

Both candidates continue to do a good job locking up their base. Inslee has tied up 74% of Democrats, while McKenna garners 71% of Republicans (a six point drop from February)—meaning that McKenna has more room to grow his support.

I can tell you that the conventional wisdom in the political press heading into this campaign was that this race was McKenna's to lose. All that stuff you hear about how Inslee isn't running a strong enough campaign? That's the sound of reporters and pundits feeding on their own preconceptions.

It sure does look like things may be moving in Inslee's direction at the moment, and one has to presume that at least some of that has to do with the renewed attention to health care reform and McKenna's campaign to repeal it. If true, that doesn't bode well for McKenna.