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Monday, April 2, 2012

Inslee Leads McKenna in Latest Poll

Posted by on Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 1:38 PM

  • Grove Insight for SEIU and WFSE

Okay, the usual caveats: It's a partisan poll conducted seven months before the election, so giant salt lick and all that, but groups generally don't commission polls in order to deceive themselves, so it's not total bullshit.

This analysis is based on 500 interviews among Washington registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2012 general election. The survey was conducted March 26-28, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Inslee Has a Slim Four-Point Lead Over McKenna
While the race remains tight, Inslee now holds a slim four point lead lead over McKenna (Inslee 38%; McKenna 34%). Undecided voters make up 28% of the electorate. These numbers mark a four point drop in McKenna’s support since our last poll (February 21-23, 2012).

Both candidates continue to do a good job locking up their base. Inslee has tied up 74% of Democrats, while McKenna garners 71% of Republicans (a six point drop from February)—meaning that McKenna has more room to grow his support.

I can tell you that the conventional wisdom in the political press heading into this campaign was that this race was McKenna's to lose. All that stuff you hear about how Inslee isn't running a strong enough campaign? That's the sound of reporters and pundits feeding on their own preconceptions.

It sure does look like things may be moving in Inslee's direction at the moment, and one has to presume that at least some of that has to do with the renewed attention to health care reform and McKenna's campaign to repeal it. If true, that doesn't bode well for McKenna.


Comments (11) RSS

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Go McKenna!
Posted by AsherCapHill on April 2, 2012 at 1:59 PM · Report this
Reverse Polarity 2
This is still an early poll. As a practical matter, a significant part of the population just isn't paying any attention yet. The only people really paying attention this early are political junkies... like me.

Inslee's biggest advantage is that he is not that well known outside of his own district. He doesn't have nearly the name recognition that McKenna has. That means he has a lot of upside potential as the campaign heats up and more people hear about him and get to know him. I've met both Inslee and McKenna personally, and I can tell you without doubt that Inslee is far more personable. Policy issues aside, McKenna is a bit of a drip, and Inslee is more likable. This will help Inslee later as the election gets closer.

McKenna wins or loses largely based on the outcome of the Supreme Court case. He is widely known throughout the state. Most people have already decided whether they like him or not. He will have a difficult time improving his poll numbers much. If he wins the court case, and can convince voters that he was on the right side, that may help push him over the top in the election. If he loses the case, then Inslee will rightfully beat him with that fact all fall long, and he won't stand a chance.
Posted by Reverse Polarity on April 2, 2012 at 2:12 PM · Report this
I was actually called on this. It was an Inslee push-poll with questions along the lines of, "With McKenna having indicated that he will rape your daughters and sell your sons into slavery if he were governor, if the election were held today...." While I support Inslee, I don't do push polls: I told the pollster that I was no longer interested in participating and hung up.

So yeah, take ANY political poll with a huge salt lick.
Posted by TechBear on April 2, 2012 at 2:20 PM · Report this
Goldy 4
@3, Bullshit. This was not an Inslee "push poll". The question asked at the top of the poll was exactly the question in the snapshot above.
Posted by Goldy on April 2, 2012 at 2:32 PM · Report this

In a poll of people who would only vote for Jay Inslee, most strongly favored him.

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://_ on April 2, 2012 at 2:38 PM · Report this
@Gold #4 - Push-polls work by providing "background information" before asking their question; the intent is to steer answers in the desired direction. This is extremely well documented: polls about women's reproductive rights can vary by as much as 35% when asking the exact same question, differing only on what "background information" is provided before asking the question.

Yes, my preface to the question was hyperbole; as I recall, the pollster started talking about how McKenna acted unilaterally against the Affordable Care Act and has spoken against same-sex marriage... all true, but unmistakeably intended to shape the response before it was ever given. That is very dishonest, which is why I put an end to the call when I realized what is going on.

Don't get me wrong, I like Inslee, strongly. I have already contributed to his campaign and will continue to do so. But in the last 20 years, it has been very rare for any political poll for any candidate of any party to be anything but a push-poll. Thus, I am extremely skeptical of political poll results.
Posted by TechBear on April 2, 2012 at 3:10 PM · Report this
MarkyMark 7
The biggest determinant in these races will be to what extent Romney suppresses the normal turnout of the Christian religious right. Hopefully more than enough to balance all the voters who don't bother to vote for Obama a second time.
Posted by MarkyMark on April 2, 2012 at 3:12 PM · Report this
Dr_Awesome 8
Goldy: groups DO commission polls in order to deceive others. Duh. See any poll undertaken by anti-gay-marriage groups.
Posted by Dr_Awesome on April 2, 2012 at 3:40 PM · Report this
Kinison 9
Yes, I cant wait for the KING5 TV debate, you know, so we can watch that group of undecided people ..... continue to be undecided.
Posted by Kinison on April 2, 2012 at 3:46 PM · Report this
Goldy 10
@6: There is a difference between a "push poll"—which is deliberate misinformation in the guise of a poll (as in "If you knew Rob McKenna was transgender, would you be more or less likely to vote for him?")—and a messaging poll, intended to test out the effectiveness of certain messages.

But regardless, neither is what these results represent. These are the top line results of the initial question. In fact, I believe this question was prepended to some other poll on an entirely different issue.

So whatever poll you claim you answered, this was not it.
Posted by Goldy on April 2, 2012 at 4:13 PM · Report this
@Goldy #10 - Call them what you will, the results are very untrustworthy: they are done specifically to manipulate the response.
Posted by TechBear on April 2, 2012 at 6:37 PM · Report this

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