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News & ArtsFriday, March 2, 2012
2012 Who's Going to Win Tomorrow's Washington State Republican Caucuses?
Posted by Eli Sanders on Fri, Mar 2, 2012 at 6:00 AM
- Everett Collection / Shutterstock
- Caucusing with conservatives is fun!
A clairvoyant, legally binding, and absolutely non-refundable Slog poll:
1
Regardless of who will win, what it needs is definitely more of what is depicted above. This campaign needs more Republican punch ups!
2
Regardless of the caucus results, I still see Gingrich as the corpulent heart and hypocritical soul of the GOP. Deceptive, Unable to control his appetites, Rich and Delusional, he's the real nominee for sure.
6
@ 3, I believe Washington was more conservative in 1988. Didn't the state GOP nominate some real whackos? I recall hearing that some crazy woman actually was nominated for governor around then, or maybe in the 90s.
@ 4, we're screwed only if any GOP nominee has a real shot at the White House. I think all of these people are too vulnerable to win the independent vote, and R-money is going to have problems convincing the base to turn out for him.
In general - Santorum has peaked, and I bet he gets less than 45%.
@ 4, we're screwed only if any GOP nominee has a real shot at the White House. I think all of these people are too vulnerable to win the independent vote, and R-money is going to have problems convincing the base to turn out for him.
In general - Santorum has peaked, and I bet he gets less than 45%.
8
the Washington GOP has been...underwhelming. And their election of their current Chair shows they have no desire to be a governing Party, but rather an ideological Party.
That said, without polling, it's impossible to say. Mitt has some advantages (I'm pretty sure we have a decent size Mormon population), Ron Paul has the crazy kids in Seattle, and Rick Santorum should do well in places like Skagit, Island and Eastern Snohomish Counties, where people are more concerned with where I put my dick than I am.
But again, a poll would be helpful...
That said, without polling, it's impossible to say. Mitt has some advantages (I'm pretty sure we have a decent size Mormon population), Ron Paul has the crazy kids in Seattle, and Rick Santorum should do well in places like Skagit, Island and Eastern Snohomish Counties, where people are more concerned with where I put my dick than I am.
But again, a poll would be helpful...
9
And I just read Paul's post.
I don't remember how the caucus system for Republicans works in WA (for Dems - we come in, say who we want, whittle down, give speeches, offer a chance to switch votes, then elect delegates and take care of other business...except at my caucus...mine better be the first one done), but with that polling, I'm saying it's basically a tie between Santorum and Romney (without seeing the cross tabs or where the responses are best for each candidate). Santorum and Paul will do well on getting actual delegates elected (if they just elect delegates, regardless of who they're supporting), only if the Paul supporters behave themselves.
If they're smart, Santorum and Gingirich supporters will work together to deny Romney supporters delegates (ie: elect mostly Santorum delegates, and then Gingrich delegates, by voting for an agreed upon amount). In theory, Romney can be denied delegates something fierce at the next level.
I don't remember how the caucus system for Republicans works in WA (for Dems - we come in, say who we want, whittle down, give speeches, offer a chance to switch votes, then elect delegates and take care of other business...except at my caucus...mine better be the first one done), but with that polling, I'm saying it's basically a tie between Santorum and Romney (without seeing the cross tabs or where the responses are best for each candidate). Santorum and Paul will do well on getting actual delegates elected (if they just elect delegates, regardless of who they're supporting), only if the Paul supporters behave themselves.
If they're smart, Santorum and Gingirich supporters will work together to deny Romney supporters delegates (ie: elect mostly Santorum delegates, and then Gingrich delegates, by voting for an agreed upon amount). In theory, Romney can be denied delegates something fierce at the next level.
10
@6 (Matt from Denver): You're probably thinking of Ellen Craswell, an anti-tax evangelical who ran for governor in 1996. She beat her closest Republican competitor, moderate Dale Foreman, in the open primary -- probably with the help of a lot of tactically minded Democratic cross-voters -- and went on to get trounced by Gary Locke in the general. After that defeat, she quit the Republicans and joined the American Heritage Party. I can't say if Washington is more or less conservative than it was back then, but it seems to me that Craswell would find a comfortable home in today's Republican Party.
11
The 47th District Republicans say they are charging $3 to attend their caucus. I can't even see myself paying trivial amounts of money, even if it would allow me to scream "Get on the Cain train!" at people who might actually consider it.
12
@10 That's pretty much the story, though the cross voting that got Craswell on the ballot caused a shotstorm. The state GOP was so embarrassed by the Craswell defeat to Empty Suit Gary, they started the legal process that fucked up our primaries for the next decade (with the complicity of the state Dem party). Now we have caucuses instead of ballots.
13
@ 10, thanks. I couldn't remember her name - that was the year before I moved to Seattle, so I only got to read about her in the past tense. But I did note that the next few GOP candidates (Carlson, Rossi, Rossi again) were more moderate. (Or at least less crazy.)
14
It's obvious Ron Paul will win and then the delegates will be awarded to Mittens after "adjustments".
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