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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown: "We will balance the budget without revenue."

Posted by on Thu, Feb 23, 2012 at 3:34 PM

The budget sausage—now leaner than ever!—is currently being made in Olympia, with house Democrats introducing their plan the other day and house Republicans doing the same.

There are important (and very predictable) differences between the two parties' proposals, of course, and there will be even more differences to come next week as the Democrats and Republicans in the state senate unveil—don't soil yourselves with excitement—their plans.

However. When you step back, the biggest budget news is best summed up in a statement Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown made today at a sit-down with reporters: "We will balance the budget without revenue."

Meaning: No new revenue. (Aka, another all cuts budget.)

This turn of events traces back to the recent not-as-terrible-as-usual state revenue forecast, which predicted $96 million more coming in during the current biennium than previously thought. Hooray!

Everyone's immediate reaction—including the governor's—was to flush plans for a half a penny sales tax increase right down the toilet and instead find ways to nip, tuck, and use tricky accounting if need be to deal with what's now a relatively small (compared to previous years) $1.1 billion shortfall.

The biggest message of Brown's chat with reporters is that this nipping and tucking should be easy, at least compared to previous sessions. “It doesn’t seem to me that any of the budget spending differences are that insurmountable," she said when asked to compare the various plans already floated or in the works. “Communication’s going well… Everybody’s talking.”

However, in the absence of a plan from the state senate (which will come on Tuesday), what most people are talking about is the house Dems' plan, which manages to preserve Basic Health and Disability Lifeline (though it does do away with some programs to help the developmentally disabled). It also saves money by temporarily delaying certain payments to schools—a tricky accounting maneuver that the Seattle Times dismissed as "akin to floating a check" and Representative Reuven Carlyle (D-36), a member of the house Ways and Means Committee, said was more like a very responsible family deciding to just make the minimum payment on a credit card for one month rather than paying the whole balance down every month.

In addition, the house Dems' plan deals with the inevitable cutbacks to social services that come with an all-cuts budget by allowing cities and counties more freedom to raise taxes to help cover those cuts. Brown noted that while this might be helpful to, say, King County, it doesn't do much to help smaller cities and poorer counties.

Carlyle called this critique "completely legitimate pushback," but then said: "At the same time, it’s also a legitimate pushback to question those who pretend like it’s possible to sustain what you could call King County-level services in places where there’s a dependency on a massive infusion of state dollars to accomplish that goal."

Carlyle didn't say this, but I translate his sentence as: Fuck 'em. If poor conservative areas of Washington State want to slash state services because they don't like Big Guvmint, then let them realize how much they actually depend on the services of Big Guvmint, and how much those services are actually subsidized by the wealthy areas of the state they claim to hate.

This—as always—will be one of the main areas of debate as the budget is made over the next two weeks: If we're not raising revenue because conservative areas of the state won't stand for new taxes, and we're slashing services because conservative areas of the state say they want that, then how much pain will Democrats let themselves inflict on those conservative areas of the state?

Brown's statements suggested: Not much.

 

Comments (11) RSS

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1
Gotta raise that revenue. Starting a new war don't come cheap.
Posted by Spindles on February 23, 2012 at 3:52 PM
treacle 2
Folks ought to read this highly cogent and sobering analysis of the greater financial situation, The Pending Currency War, and then fit Washington's troubles within that framework.
Posted by treacle on February 23, 2012 at 3:58 PM
3

"Starting a new war don't come cheap."

Who will we be attacking, Oregon?

But I'm sure you're crushed you can't saddle working families with yet another sales tax increase.
Posted by Taxaholic on February 23, 2012 at 4:26 PM
treacle 4
@3 - um, Iran? Do you not read the news or something?
Posted by treacle on February 23, 2012 at 6:30 PM
5
@4 um, the State of Washington is going to attack Iran? I believe this article is only talking about our state taxes.

Now, take a deep breath.

There, feel better?
Posted by Hyperventilating will get u no where on February 23, 2012 at 7:27 PM
6
They are a bit like Catholic priests - sigh - great - we can continue to fuck the children.
Posted by kinaidos on February 23, 2012 at 8:37 PM
7
Washington state vs Iran. Hmmm, we do have a lot of militias in Eastern Washington. Or maybe the feds can loan us troops from McChord/Ft Lewis.
Posted by randomitis on February 23, 2012 at 9:13 PM
8
As Eli notes, pushing costs down to local governments creates the only upside to this otherwise still-shitty-as-hell budget: cities and counties where the voters don't like to pay taxes will suffer worse than cities and counties where voters are willing to pay taxes. My biggest fear is that this will be the one issue on which the Democrats get soft.
Posted by Moag on February 24, 2012 at 8:39 AM
9
Well, actually, I was at that sit-down. And there's an important nuance here. All along, legislative leaders have been saying that they will pass a balanced budget without revenue. Since Day One. Actually, since Day One minus 60.

The game plan at the start was to pass an all-cuts budget, and THEN ask voters to buy back some of those cuts by passing a tax increase.

So what Lisa Brown actually said during her chat with reporters was that there was no change, the House and Senate will pass an all-cuts budget without new revenue. But you've got the rest of it right. There has been a big change in the last week or so. A couple of really dandy forecasts dumped about $400 million into the Legislature's hands, and suddenly the messy problem of convincing voters to vote for a big tax increase can be avoided. The House formally ditched the idea this week, and it seems a sure bet that the Senate will follow suit, even if Brown isn't formally ruling it out just yet.

Here's the really fun thing that's going on in Oly-town right now, though. That scheme the House came up with to balance the budget, by sticking next year's Legislature with a $400 million bill, is really sort of a repeat of a scheme that got the state in deep trouble 41 years ago. They called it the "25th month," for reasons too intricate to get into here. But it brought the state to the brink of default and cost taxpayers millions. The Legislature finally cleaned up the problem 25 years ago and vowed 'never again' -- but that was 25 years ago, and everyone has forgotten.

Naturally I couldn't resist writing about that one: http://bit.ly/zKChDR

Regards,

Erik Smith
Washington State Wire

Posted by Erik Smith on February 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM
10
Well, actually, I was at that sit-down. And there's an important nuance here. All along, legislative leaders have been saying that they will pass a balanced budget without revenue. Since Day One. Actually, since Day One minus 60.

The game plan at the start was to pass an all-cuts budget, and THEN ask voters to buy back some of those cuts by passing a tax increase.

So what Lisa Brown actually said during her chat with reporters was that there was no change, the House and Senate will pass an all-cuts budget without new revenue. But you've got the rest of it right. There has been a big change in the last week or so. A couple of really dandy forecasts dumped about $400 million into the Legislature's hands, and suddenly the messy problem of convincing voters to vote for a big tax increase can be avoided. The House formally ditched the idea this week, and it seems a sure bet that the Senate will follow suit, even if Brown isn't formally ruling it out just yet.

Here's the really fun thing that's going on in Oly-town right now, though. That scheme the House came up with to balance the budget, by sticking next year's Legislature with a $400 million bill, is really sort of a repeat of a scheme that got the state in deep trouble 41 years ago. They called it the "25th month," for reasons too intricate to get into here. But it brought the state to the brink of default and cost taxpayers millions. The Legislature finally cleaned up the problem 25 years ago and vowed 'never again' -- but that was 25 years ago, and everyone has forgotten.

Naturally I couldn't resist writing about that one: http://bit.ly/zKChDR

Regards,

Erik Smith
Washington State Wire

More...
Posted by Erik Smith on February 24, 2012 at 11:17 AM
11
Didn't WA State Dems learn anything from the failure of Congressional Dems to pass serious, progressive legislation when they were in power? Then they lost it. And these squishy Dems may eventually lose their power if they keep championing lameness.

Already this session they bailed on the Voting Rights Act, prohibition of E-Verify, several labor priorities, and other sensible bills. Even though they had the votes. Caving on revenue doesn't surprise anymore, but it sure shows lack of leadership.
Posted by sparkglobal on February 24, 2012 at 12:33 PM

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