Slog
News & ArtsThursday, February 23, 2012
2012 / Economy More Bad News for Republicans
Posted by Goldy on Thu, Feb 23, 2012 at 8:32 AM
Debate all they want, but as the economy improves, Republican prospects fade.
The number of people seeking unemployment aid was unchanged last week and the four-week average of applications fell to its lowest point in four years, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The figures are the latest evidence that the job market is improving.
351,000 new laid-off workers sought unemployment benefits last week, while the four-week average fell for the sixth consecutive week to 359,000, its lowest level in four years. That bodes well for the February jobs report. 375,000 weekly claims is generally considered the mark beneath which hiring is strong enough to lower unemployment.
And remember how pundits kept reminding us how 8 percent was a magic number above which President Obama could kiss the White House goodbye? Unemployment now stands at 8.3 percent, following five consecutive monthly drops. At this pace Obama might be asking voters next fall that classic Reaganesque question: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
Meanwhile, Republicans keep campaigning as if it were 2010.
1
Are they better off if they are working but for fewer hours and/or less pay than they were before the economic crash in 2008?
2
Interesting. I watched some of the debate from the airport, and Im not american, but do you really think that most folks actually perform this kind of analysis when thinking about voting? Its a serious question.
4
@2, I think that as the economy gets better—and more importantly, it feels like it's getting better—the rhetoric of "Obama the Economy Destroyer" that Romney is relying upon stops resonating with voters.
So if the economy stops being such a potent issue, what does Romney (still the presumed nominee) run on? Foreign policy? Obama wound down the war in Iraq, is gradually winding down Afghanistan, and killed Osama bin Laden.
All that's left is "Obamacare," which is barely distinguishable from "Romneycare."
So if the economy stops being such a potent issue, what does Romney (still the presumed nominee) run on? Foreign policy? Obama wound down the war in Iraq, is gradually winding down Afghanistan, and killed Osama bin Laden.
All that's left is "Obamacare," which is barely distinguishable from "Romneycare."
5
@2 - individuals probably don't say "If the unemployment rate gets below 7.8% I'll vote Obama, but otherwise I'm throwing the bum out!". But it's pretty well-established that the state of the economy, and even more whether it's on an upward or downward trend, has a major impact on the incumbent's chances.
7
My cynical worry is that the change in the economy will force the Republicans to abandon their economic attacks on the president which aren't working and pull some whackadoodle attack out of their asses that does work.
There is also a sick and twisted part of me that is really, really curious just how bananas a Rick Santorum presidency would really be.
There is also a sick and twisted part of me that is really, really curious just how bananas a Rick Santorum presidency would really be.
8
After the way Republicans left the country four years ago, Obama deserves reelection and a congressional Medal of Honor and another Nobel Peace Prize.
9
For Santorum, it seems that he is campaigning as if it is 1010, and he wants to bring back burning witches, as there is scientific evidence that there isn’t enough witch burning... or women burning, same thing in his eyes..
10
Here's my anecdata. The housing bubble partially helped me get a good job in 2007 (thanks GW Bush, I guess?), then when it burst I got laid off in 2009. But it was the Republicans who consistently opposed any effort to help me out — unemployment benefit extensions, COBRA extensions, health care reform. It was Republicans who consistently cried about "reducing the deficit" (i.e. cutting back social programs during a recession so that they could lower the tax rate for their super-rich friends) and did nothing to improve the unemployment situation except try to pull the wool over my eyes with their "job creators" bullshit (which is just warmed-over "trickle-down" economic theory bullshit for a new generation). And then it was money from the Democrats' stimulus package (which would have been bigger if the R's hadn't fought against it) that kept me working in 2010 and 2011 when private companies weren't hiring.
I think Obama is too cozy with Wall Street and hasn't done enough to help working people struggling in the recession, which technically ended years ago (if you're a wealthy investor!) but is still causing a lot of pain for people who work for a living. I'm actually not better off now than I was in 2008. But considering the alternative, I know who will get my vote. I'm sure I'm not the only person who thinks this way.
I think Obama is too cozy with Wall Street and hasn't done enough to help working people struggling in the recession, which technically ended years ago (if you're a wealthy investor!) but is still causing a lot of pain for people who work for a living. I'm actually not better off now than I was in 2008. But considering the alternative, I know who will get my vote. I'm sure I'm not the only person who thinks this way.
11
I expect a Santorum presidency would look something like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WJXHY2OX…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WJXHY2OX…
16
Goldy,
If the election were held today Obama would win. But, between now, 2/23 & Election Day, 11/6 is a political eternity. 8.3 % is a very high UE Rate and I don't think it is including those that fall off the rolls. Things are still quite dire and anything can happen. While I appreciate your enthusiasm, an Obama victory is a long way.
@8 Vince,
I disagree strongly. Obama admitted he didn't deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. He received it after a mere 9 months in office. The Nobel Committee was way too eager to bestow it on him. Time will tell whether he earned it or not. And from my understanding, a Medal of Honor is only given to those in uniform who conduct themselves heroically in the field of combat. Obama simply hasn't done that. He's never been in the military.
If the election were held today Obama would win. But, between now, 2/23 & Election Day, 11/6 is a political eternity. 8.3 % is a very high UE Rate and I don't think it is including those that fall off the rolls. Things are still quite dire and anything can happen. While I appreciate your enthusiasm, an Obama victory is a long way.
@8 Vince,
I disagree strongly. Obama admitted he didn't deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. He received it after a mere 9 months in office. The Nobel Committee was way too eager to bestow it on him. Time will tell whether he earned it or not. And from my understanding, a Medal of Honor is only given to those in uniform who conduct themselves heroically in the field of combat. Obama simply hasn't done that. He's never been in the military.
18
I'd be far more interested to know how many people are like me: still unemployed, with their UE benefits long since used up so they don't appear on UE lists.
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