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News & ArtsTuesday, February 7, 2012
2012 / Election Obama Kicking Romney's Ass in State Polls
Posted by Goldy on Tue, Feb 7, 2012 at 9:20 AM
- horsesass.org
Mitt Romney may be consolidating his lead in the Republican presidential primary, but according to Darryl's meta-polling analysis over at HA, that hasn't translated into a leg-up in the head-to-head contest with President Barack Obama. With the latest state polls averaged in, Obama now has 99.6 percent chance of winning, with a mean of 335 electoral votes.
You know, assuming the polling data is accurate, and the election were held today.
As always, you should read the full post, and the methodology FAQ before automatically dismissing these results.
3
That looks about right although I think Obama has a good shot at taking IN due to saving the auto industry and Gov Daniel's unpopularity and AZ due to Latino backlash and Gov Brewer's unpopularity.
I also doubt Obama takes SC, although it could happen if there's a huge black turnout and a low evangelical turnout.
I also doubt Obama takes SC, although it could happen if there's a huge black turnout and a low evangelical turnout.
5
So put your money down, folks. Looks like you have a sure thing.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?event…
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?event…
7
The only way I see Team Blue winning SC is if the present spat between conservative factions within the state depresses turnout - which it could do, but....
MO, IN, VA are going to be close. NH maybe as well... Thanks to the wonderful Governor of FL and a Republican statehouse that can't seem to stop him from repeatedly shooting the state and their party in the foot, I think we might just take this state.
Given a number of knife-edge possibilities going pear-shaped, I still see a minimum likely Electoral College result of 274 for Obama.
My two bits....
MO, IN, VA are going to be close. NH maybe as well... Thanks to the wonderful Governor of FL and a Republican statehouse that can't seem to stop him from repeatedly shooting the state and their party in the foot, I think we might just take this state.
Given a number of knife-edge possibilities going pear-shaped, I still see a minimum likely Electoral College result of 274 for Obama.
My two bits....
9
SOUTH CAROLINA? That's frigging huge. I always thought Obama stood a chance in NC -- he won there in '08, by a hair -- but never in a million years SC. Please make it so.
12
I'm skeptical that Obama takes SC, *BUT*...the state is roughly 1/3 African American, and less than 1% of the participants in the GOP primary were. Between that and the Mormon thing...if a Democrat was going to win in SC any time soon, this would be the year.
13
OK, Goldy, I take it to mean that you support the legislation Obama is about to sign, which supports a domestic drone program in the hands of local police, and also the anti-union sections of this bill?
So you are therefore pro-neocon, pro-fascist and anti-union?
Do I have that right, Goldy, or are you seriously suffering from an extreme bout of cognitive dissonance?
http://www.businessinsider.com/congress-…
A bill to speed the nation’s switch from radar to an air traffic control system based on GPS technology, and to open U.S. skies to unmanned drone flights within four years, received final congressional approval Monday.
The bill passed the Senate 75-20, despite labor opposition to a deal cut between the Democratic-controlled Senate and the Republican-controlled House on rules governing union organizing elections at airlines and railroads. The House had passed the bill last week, and it now goes to President Barack Obama for his signature.
......
The FAA is also required under the bill to provide military, commercial and privately-owned drones with expanded access to U.S. airspace currently reserved for manned aircraft by Sept. 30, 2015. That means permitting unmanned drones controlled by remote operators on the ground to fly in the same airspace as airliners, cargo planes, business jets and private aircraft.
Currently, the FAA restricts drone use primarily to segregated blocks of military airspace, border patrols and about 300 public agencies and their private partners. Those public agencies are mainly restricted to flying small unmanned aircraft at low altitudes away from airports and urban centers.
Within nine months of the bill’s passage, the FAA is required to submit a plan on how to safely provide drones with expanded access.
More...
So you are therefore pro-neocon, pro-fascist and anti-union?
Do I have that right, Goldy, or are you seriously suffering from an extreme bout of cognitive dissonance?
http://www.businessinsider.com/congress-…
A bill to speed the nation’s switch from radar to an air traffic control system based on GPS technology, and to open U.S. skies to unmanned drone flights within four years, received final congressional approval Monday.
The bill passed the Senate 75-20, despite labor opposition to a deal cut between the Democratic-controlled Senate and the Republican-controlled House on rules governing union organizing elections at airlines and railroads. The House had passed the bill last week, and it now goes to President Barack Obama for his signature.
......
The FAA is also required under the bill to provide military, commercial and privately-owned drones with expanded access to U.S. airspace currently reserved for manned aircraft by Sept. 30, 2015. That means permitting unmanned drones controlled by remote operators on the ground to fly in the same airspace as airliners, cargo planes, business jets and private aircraft.
Currently, the FAA restricts drone use primarily to segregated blocks of military airspace, border patrols and about 300 public agencies and their private partners. Those public agencies are mainly restricted to flying small unmanned aircraft at low altitudes away from airports and urban centers.
Within nine months of the bill’s passage, the FAA is required to submit a plan on how to safely provide drones with expanded access.
14
@13, don't be an ass. This is merely a map of polling data. One data point at one point in time. In no way is Goldy claiming to support every single policy issued by the White House. Duh.
15
Never assume that Mittens will play fair.
If you look at the actual turnout and votes in the primary and caucus states so far, you'll see Mittens is trying to turn OFF voters.
That is his eventual nationwide strategery.
If you look at the actual turnout and votes in the primary and caucus states so far, you'll see Mittens is trying to turn OFF voters.
That is his eventual nationwide strategery.
17
Proof that Indiana is the Alabama of the midwest. I hate living there. Got room for me in Seattle?
18
@16 - Yeah guys, at least with Ronnie Paul we can all be slaves to corporations instead and we can let the states do whatever they want (like ban everything the majority doesn't like - including pot). Woo!
Maybe all the racist bigots can come out of the closet too when Ronnie takes over! I know that's what Spindles really cares about! And no vaccines for everyone ever (until Pfizer strikes a deal with the corporate schools)! What a paradise!
Maybe all the racist bigots can come out of the closet too when Ronnie takes over! I know that's what Spindles really cares about! And no vaccines for everyone ever (until Pfizer strikes a deal with the corporate schools)! What a paradise!
19
@13, Are you suggesting that if someone prefers Obama over Romney that they must be excited about everything Obama's ever done? I think Obama's done a pretty good job but I'm far from supporting everything he's done. Still, given a choice between him and ANY of the current Republican field I am definitely behind Obama
@ EVERYONE ELSE,
Let us not forget what everyone was saying after Obama was elected last time. I heard countless people say how the Republican party was a dying brand and that Republicans wouldn't recover for a generation and there's a permanent Democratic majority. I lost count of how many times I heard shit like this. All I can say is DON"T BE COMPLACENT! He only wins if we all go out and vote. More importantly if he wins he can only accomplish anything if we take back the House and take a large majority in the Senate.
To those who think he's compromised too much, give him a large majority in Congress and he won't have to compromise so much.
@ EVERYONE ELSE,
Let us not forget what everyone was saying after Obama was elected last time. I heard countless people say how the Republican party was a dying brand and that Republicans wouldn't recover for a generation and there's a permanent Democratic majority. I lost count of how many times I heard shit like this. All I can say is DON"T BE COMPLACENT! He only wins if we all go out and vote. More importantly if he wins he can only accomplish anything if we take back the House and take a large majority in the Senate.
To those who think he's compromised too much, give him a large majority in Congress and he won't have to compromise so much.
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