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News & ArtsMonday, February 6, 2012
2012 Romney Tries to Wipe Santorum Off the Map
Posted by Paul Constant on Mon, Feb 6, 2012 at 3:16 PM
Mitt Romney is attacking Rick Santorum with everything he's got today:
The Romney campaign released a barrage of opposition research on Santorum on Monday morning, the type of offensive tactic that had previously been reserved for Newt Gingrich and, before him, Texas Gov. Rick Perry. The former Massachusetts governor's campaign worked to link Santorum to pork barrel spending during his time in Congress, and touting his endorsement of Governor Romney in the last presidential race.
Why now? Because of the three races tomorrow—Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri—Romney only has a decisive lead in Colorado. And he demonstrates a serious weakness in the midwest. Out of all the races so far, Romney has dominated with wealthy voters and only managed to tie, at best, once the voters' annual income dibs below two hundred thousand dollars a year. Santorum does better with poor voters, and so the Romney campaign is preparing to do to Santorum what they did to Gingrich in Florida—open up the sewage pipes and hope to make the whole field so toxic that poor voters decide not to bother.
I have my doubts about whether this attack will work on Santorum—he doesn't have Gingrich's mile-high victim complex, so he won't inflate the attacks into a cosmic injustice—but this kind of all-out negative attack suggests that Romney is still a fundamentally weak candidate. Even though the media has fallen for this bullshit "momentum" story out of Nevada, the nomination is still in doubt, and Romney's people know it.
1
I recall that things got nasty between Obama and Clinton during 2008 so I guess despite all the nastiness now, Republicans will rally behind Romney by November.
2
Santorum has one thing going for him that Romney doesn't and that's a Christian base that won't vote for a Mormon.
3
With regard to Santorum's effect in Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty says: "I think you'll see a clumping result tomorrow."
4
Romney still hasn't won a primary in the south. If you look at Florida county-by-county (and know a little about the cultural geography of Florida), the counties that Gingrich won are essentially far southern Alabama/Georgia.
He'll still be the nominee in all likelihood, because most of the big southern primaries are awarding their delegates proportionally. If they were winner-take-all, he'd be in trouble. But he'll look a lot better going into the convention if he can win some of those states outright. And the only way he has a prayer to do that is by getting either Santorum or Gingrich to drop out before Super Tuesday.
He'll still be the nominee in all likelihood, because most of the big southern primaries are awarding their delegates proportionally. If they were winner-take-all, he'd be in trouble. But he'll look a lot better going into the convention if he can win some of those states outright. And the only way he has a prayer to do that is by getting either Santorum or Gingrich to drop out before Super Tuesday.
5
Um, no. Romney is going to be the nominee. There's really not any doubt about that at this point, internally or externally. Anyone who's saying otherwise is trying to sell you something to keep the primary "horse-race" narrative going (or is Newt Gingrich). What he's dying to do is seal the deal and start campaigning against Obama before the Republican internal war finishes the campaign for the general before it starts. All team Obama (or even better, the totally unrelated Grassroots for Obama SuperPAC) has to do is start reairing the ads from the primary to mortally wound Romney for the general.
And BTW, I don't think there's any way to make the numbers come out in Romney's favor in November no matter what he does. Barring Obama doing something egregiously stupid in the next few months (and early indicators are that he's wised up on trying to be the only adult in the room), the election is still his to lose (mostly due to the utterly unpalatable Republican field of candidates).
And BTW, I don't think there's any way to make the numbers come out in Romney's favor in November no matter what he does. Barring Obama doing something egregiously stupid in the next few months (and early indicators are that he's wised up on trying to be the only adult in the room), the election is still his to lose (mostly due to the utterly unpalatable Republican field of candidates).
6
So, basically, all he's doing is scaring away voters that aren't his. At least that's what the metrics show.
7
@5 is exactly right on all points.
@6, you don't know what "metrics" means either. He's not "scaring away voters that aren't his", which doesn't even make semantic sense; he's if anything convincing his own voters to stay home. Gingrich and Santorum don't HAVE voters; they are both extremely unpopular men.
The nomination is secure. The calendar is completely on Romney's side.
@6, you don't know what "metrics" means either. He's not "scaring away voters that aren't his", which doesn't even make semantic sense; he's if anything convincing his own voters to stay home. Gingrich and Santorum don't HAVE voters; they are both extremely unpopular men.
The nomination is secure. The calendar is completely on Romney's side.
8
Yeah, unfortunately, you can never really satisfactorily, completely wipe away santorum - you kinda have to just go all-in and hop in the shower. I think a thin, slimy film of Santorum just won't go away until the namby-pamby jockeying of the primaries is over and Mitt cleans himself up for the real election.
9
The media have "fallen for" the momentum story???
Hell, they wrote it. They're so lazy and self-involved that they'd rather get the decision out of the way than follow it for months on end. BTDT, four years ago.
That said, it would take an absolutely immense screwup by Romney to keep him from the nomination. Say, an affair or something.
Ain't gonna happen.
Hell, they wrote it. They're so lazy and self-involved that they'd rather get the decision out of the way than follow it for months on end. BTDT, four years ago.
That said, it would take an absolutely immense screwup by Romney to keep him from the nomination. Say, an affair or something.
Ain't gonna happen.
11
Can some intern or Nate Silver wanna-be keep a GoogleDocs spreadsheet comparing Republican turnouts for each state and who won that state? I'm trying (but not too hard obviously) not to pay attention, but it looks to me that heaps of South Carolina voters turned out just to give Gingrich a win, and that in the states Romney won, fewer voters than 2008 have turned out. Am I correct, or have I been misled by lame reporting?
12
How I long to play the eventual German board game version of this year's Republican primary season.
13
I tempted to go to my local Republican caucus site Tuesday evening. Is there some sort of "Operation Chaos" going on?
14
@1
Totally different circumstances. In 2008, Democrats were excited because they either LOVED Clinton or LOVED Obama. Democrats were excited because they knew they were going to either be electing the first woman president or the first black president.
No one loves these candidates; none of them are exciting. Also, non-Mormon Republicans are not excited about electing the first Mormon president.
2008 NV Democratic caucus - 116,000
2008 NV Republican caucus - 44,000
2012 NV Republican caucus - 32,894
2008 FL Democratic primary - 1,749,920
2008 FL Republican primary - 1,949,498
2012 FL Republican primary - 1,672,352
(keep in mind that the population of FL and NV have gone up between 2008-2012)
Totally different circumstances. In 2008, Democrats were excited because they either LOVED Clinton or LOVED Obama. Democrats were excited because they knew they were going to either be electing the first woman president or the first black president.
No one loves these candidates; none of them are exciting. Also, non-Mormon Republicans are not excited about electing the first Mormon president.
2008 NV Democratic caucus - 116,000
2008 NV Republican caucus - 44,000
2012 NV Republican caucus - 32,894
2008 FL Democratic primary - 1,749,920
2008 FL Republican primary - 1,949,498
2012 FL Republican primary - 1,672,352
(keep in mind that the population of FL and NV have gone up between 2008-2012)
15
@11: actually, Nate Silver has the answer to your question over at 538...your hunch is correct. South Carolina is the only state so far this cycle where participation was markedly up from 2008.
Silver points out that the higher the Republican turnout, the worse Romney does. He is doing best where the turnout is well below 2008.
Silver points out that the higher the Republican turnout, the worse Romney does. He is doing best where the turnout is well below 2008.
16
@11
IA and NH - turnout went up slightly
SC - turnout way up
FL and NV - turnout way down
THE #'s:
IA 2008 - 119,188
2012 - 121,503
NH 2008 - 234,851
2012 - 248,448
SC 2008 - 445,677
2012 - 603,856
FL 2008 - 1,949,498
2012 - 1,672,352
NV 2008 - 44,000
2012 - 32,894
IA and NH - turnout went up slightly
SC - turnout way up
FL and NV - turnout way down
THE #'s:
IA 2008 - 119,188
2012 - 121,503
NH 2008 - 234,851
2012 - 248,448
SC 2008 - 445,677
2012 - 603,856
FL 2008 - 1,949,498
2012 - 1,672,352
NV 2008 - 44,000
2012 - 32,894
17
Now if someone really wants to be a nerd, they should compare the 2012 DEMOCRATIC turnout with that of Bush Jr in 2004 and Clinton in 1996.
Have fun!
Have fun!
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