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Friday, February 3, 2012

The Bears Are Turning Bullish on Job Growth

Posted by on Fri, Feb 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Don't get me wrong, I'm as happy as Charles to rub each new positive jobs report in the nose of Mitt Romney and his fellow Republicans, whose sole electoral strategy seems to be to cross their fingers that the economy will stagnate or worsen, and then hope that voters forget whose policies got us into this mess in the first place. But when it comes to employment, I follow some awfully bearish economists who have tended to discount the upward trend we've seen in recent reports.

Well, not this month. Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, who has been about as gloom-and-doomy on jobs as they come, actually seems to crack a smile for the first time in forever:

The revisions actually improved the picture more than may be apparent, since a quirky 42,200 rise in courier jobs for December was completely eliminated in the revision. Instead, the revised data show a 63,000 increase in jobs in professional and technical services for December, instead of the 12,000 previously reported. This was largely due to more jobs in employment services, which reportedly rose by 21,800 in December and by 33,200 last month. This is the sort of healthy job growth in this sector that often precedes more permanent hires.

[...] The January report is undoubtedly one of the best reports that we have seen since the recession began.

Of course, the larger picture still sucks. This was not only the steepest post World War II recession in terms of job loss, as this chart dramatically shows, it's also been by far the slowest in terms of job recovery. But with jobs up strongly in key areas like manufacturing, and unemployment down sharply for blacks and hispanics (though still almost double the rate for whites), the latest data has at last convinced Baker and some other bearish economists that we may finally be on a "somewhat stronger job growth path."

And that, as Charles astutely gloats, would be bad news for Romney.

 

Comments (8) RSS

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Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 1
Sounds like the extension of the Bush tax cuts are driving this recovery in jobs.

As you know, you guys spent the last 3 years blaming Bush.

So the recovery is all his!

Go Republicans, claim the credit you deserve!
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://yrihf.com on February 3, 2012 at 10:11 AM
2
Now this is what democracy looks like!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kiss-forec…

A.G. SCHNEIDERMAN ANNOUNCES MAJOR LAWSUIT AGAINST NATION’S LARGEST BANKS FOR DECEPTIVE & FRAUDULENT USE OF ELECTRONIC MORTGAGE REGISTRY

Complaint Charges Use Of MERS By Bank Of America, J.P. Morgan Chase, And Wells Fargo Resulted In Fraudulent Foreclosure Filings
Servicers And MERS Filed Improper Foreclosure Actions Where Authority To Sue Was Questionable


That f**king Schneiderman, I knew he'd pull through brilliantly and not crap out like Spitzer and Cuomo, effing lamers and losers and faux crats!

Obama had best get his faux crat butt in gear if he's ever going to appear even remotely like a dem and not the neocon Wall Street stooge he really is......
Posted by sgt_doom on February 3, 2012 at 10:34 AM
Max Solomon 3
2 road blocks:

1. Eurozone debt crisis - the piper will have to be paid before november. The .01% will have to take a haircut, and they won't be happy.
2. The price of oil - speculators can, and will, drive up the cost to hurt Obama's chances. $5/gallon is going to hurt lots of folks, but not the .1%.
Posted by Max Solomon on February 3, 2012 at 10:45 AM
Vince 4
War with Iran is coming. At this point it is looking likely. And, frankly, I'm starting to like the idea. The threat they pose is unacceptable. I don't think Americans will switch presidents if we're at war.
Posted by Vince on February 3, 2012 at 11:01 AM
Will in Seattle 5
Damn but I wish Vince wasn't right. It's tough when we're fighting five wars. Iraq (training), Afghanistan (against Pakistan), Drone War vs al-Qaeda (official), Special Ops War vs al-Qaeda (black ops, you aren't allowed to know about it), and the Drug War.

Hey, let's start a Sixth War. Frickin morons.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on February 3, 2012 at 11:14 AM
Will in Seattle 6
@3 nah, pretty sure my peeps will kick Greece out of eurozone (common EU currency). Been working on them on five channels to do that.

Wouldn't want to hold bonds, is all I'm saying.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on February 3, 2012 at 11:16 AM
lark 7
Goldy,
I thought these pieces better examine the jobs' report:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/02/…

and this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2…

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad there was a dip in the UE rate but we still have an incredibly long way to go.
Posted by lark on February 3, 2012 at 1:26 PM
Max Solomon 8
@5: @4 isn't right. obama's not going to war with iran. he's too level headed.
Posted by Max Solomon on February 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

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