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Thursday, February 2, 2012

The Politics of the Possible

Posted by on Thu, Feb 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

If you had asked the conventionally wise a decade ago to put odds on legislative approval of full marriage equality a mere ten years hence, last night's remarkable senate vote would have appeared an unlikely long-shot.

Democrats had been trying and failing for years, simply to add sexual orientation to our state's anti-discrimination laws. Gay marriage? It was a distraction. In fact, more than that, gay marriage was the bogeyman at the bottom of the slippery slope that opponents hyperbolically used to squash public support for civil rights legislation.

And yet, last night, marriage equality leapt over its biggest hurdle, passing the state senate not in a squeaker, but by a decisive 28-21 margin that included four of 22 Republicans. That's about as close to bipartisanship as we get in this state when it comes to social issues.

A lot of activists and politicians played a role in last night's victory, and I don't mean to dis any of their contributions, but a big chunk of the credit goes to Senator Ed Murray, whose disciplined, gradualist strategy—even in the face of harsh criticism from others in the LGBT community who complained that he was moving too slowly—appears flawless in light of the final results. Sure, opponents will still likely gather enough signatures to put the issue before voters as a referendum, but given the way senate fence-sitters toppled over on the side of equality (not to mention the favorable public opinion polls), the odds are that this time next year, our local wedding industry will be booming with new customers.

Happy days, and all that.

But there's another issue that, ten years ago, establishment Dems would've said you were smoking crack if you thought you could move it, and one that honestly, has a helluva a lot more impact on most Washingtonians than whether that nice gay couple next door can legally tie the knot. Of course, I'm talking about tax restructuring: Moving Washington from the most regressive and most sales-tax dependent state in the nation, towards one that begins to tax income and/or wealth in a fair and sustainable manner.

Without tax restructuring, not only will Washington's lowest income households continue to shoulder a disproportionate share of our state and local taxes (currently 17.3 percent of income for those earning less than $20,000 a year, compared to only 2.6 percent for those earning over $537,000), state tax revenues—and thus its ability to provide services—will continue to shrink as a portion of the total economy. That means lower quality K-12 schools and public universities, fewer services for the poor, the old, and the sick, not mention less money for prisons, police, roads, ferries, parks, and a host of other essential state services.

Elect all the Dems you want, but without tax restructuring, we will gradually get the Republican drown-government-in-a-bathtub agenda by default.

By nearly every metric (except perhaps the fantastical math Republican Rob McKenna uses in his gubernatorial stump speeches), Washington's state government is shrinking, because we have a tax structure that simply cannot produce revenue that keeps pace with either growth in the economy or growth in demand for government services. Hell, with inflation-adjusted revenue shrinking per capita, we can't even keep pace with the economically bogus right-wing target of population plus inflation.

And yet, the political elite will tell you that the only long term solution to our structural revenue deficit—substantive tax restructuring— is politically impossible. You know, just like gay marriage was a decade ago.

But of course, nothing's impossible. If we can overcome seemingly insurmountable political odds to become only the seventh state to recognize gay marriage, surely we can do the same to become the 44th state to levy some sort of income tax. All that's missing in Olympia is the leadership and the plan. And, unfortunately, the will.

 

Comments (17) RSS

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Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 1
One of the cutting edge elements to the story is Republican Joe Fain voting by generation rather than by expectation.

Republicans emphasize getting the government off the people's backs, but often side with social legislation to hamper, rather than hinder expression.

That has started to change. Will it bubble up to a McKenna, or a Romney. It probably depends on whether LGBTs are willing to play quid-pro-quo and provide reciprocal support to candidates who courageously make the correct decision.

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://yrihf.com on February 2, 2012 at 10:56 AM
2
"Sure, opponents will still likely gather enough signatures to put the issue before voters as a referendum..."

Speaking of which, is there any reason I can't simply write "Fuck you, bigots!" on any of these that are presented to me?
Posted by Because, really, fuck them on February 2, 2012 at 10:57 AM
3
@2, As long as you don't write it on top of existing signatures, in a way that obscures them, so as to infringe on their right to sign it, I don't see any legal reason why you couldn't write "Fuck you, bigots!" on a petition sheet put before you. The signature gatherer can always move on to a new petition shit.

More effective though would be to stand near the the signature gatherer, and politely ask people not to sign it. Decline to sign campaigns can be very effective.
Posted by Goldy on February 2, 2012 at 11:05 AM
ItsAllOverNow 4
Wall of text.
Posted by ItsAllOverNow http://nowaybro.blogspot.com/ on February 2, 2012 at 11:17 AM
5
I'm looking forward to employing 2's tactics in the coming months.
Posted by emor on February 2, 2012 at 11:22 AM
MacCrocodile 6
@3 - When this happens, could you guys please let us know when and where such efforts are being organized? I'd love to be part of the effort.

I'll sign the petition with "Mr. MacCrocodile, The Merry Old Land of Oz, WA" and then stand next to the signature gatherer informing folks what's going on.
Posted by MacCrocodile on February 2, 2012 at 11:37 AM
7
"...but a big chunk of the credit goes to Senator Ed Murray, whose disciplined, gradualist strategy..." "If we can overcome seemingly insurmountable political odds to become only the seventh state to recognize gay marriage, surely we can do the same to become the 44th state to levy some sort of income tax."

The problem with your parallel is where are we going to find an openly-income-taxed legislator?

@3 "More effective though would be to stand near the the signature gatherer, and politely ask people not to sign it."

I agree, but tend to have enough time to scrawl something on a petition a lot more often than I have time to try to better influence this. I might go with the somewhat more persuasive, "Let's vote on your rights next!", although there's a lot to be said for my more cathartic original wording.
Posted by Because, really, fuck them on February 2, 2012 at 11:42 AM
8
i still think that things will have to get a lot worse before we can head left on any tax issue. there is an ocean of difference between making progressive headway on a social issue and making progressive headway on an economic issue. the economic issue will have an endless supply of money fighting against it.
Posted by philosophy school dropout on February 2, 2012 at 11:42 AM
9
Re @3 and @6:

So, this would be a total asshole thing to do, but they deserve it: Wouldn't it be best to sign the petition with a fake but plausible name and address? Then, when the "signature checkers" are doing their checks, the more fake ones there are, the more likely they are to kick the whole mess out?

I just remember reading in a recent article about some other signature gathering, maybe the recall petitions in Wisconsin, that they sample and check a certain percentage of the signatures, and get a fake/not fake percentage from that, then extrapolate it to the whole list to determine if the total number of assumed legitimate signatures is sufficient.

So slipping as many phony and unverifiable names and addresses (but plausible enough looking that the signature gatherer wouldn't just cross it out when they see it) on such a list might actually help.
Posted by MLM on February 2, 2012 at 11:48 AM
MacCrocodile 10
@9 - Yeah, that sounds good, but I still think there should be people stationed next to the gatherers to dissuade potential legitimate signatures.

Okay, how about this for a plan: Before you go stand next to your assigned petitioner with accurate information, make a circuit of all nearby petitioners and sign with a fake (but plausible) name and address, then report in for reverse propaganda duty.
Posted by MacCrocodile on February 2, 2012 at 11:55 AM
11
@10: Agreed.
Posted by MLM on February 2, 2012 at 12:01 PM
Teslick 12
Goldy, please remember Murray's approach next time you feel the need to write a diatribe on the red counties and how the State should screw their kids over because the parents don't vote correctly.
Posted by Teslick on February 2, 2012 at 1:20 PM
13
@9,10 "Wouldn't it be best to sign the petition with a fake but plausible name and address?"

I believe that is actually considered a fraud by the Secretary of State's Office, and providing fake entries has been turned over to the State Patrol for investigation in the past.
Posted by Because, really, fuck them on February 2, 2012 at 1:49 PM
14
actually, the political elite here includes seattle liberals proposing ultra regressive VLF and saying it's not regressive, and state liberals proposing adding to the sales tax, and there being a dearth of grass roots movement for tax reform. But yes, fair taxes would be a good idea. If only democrats were for it.
Posted by the difference being.... on February 2, 2012 at 2:17 PM
MacCrocodile 15
@13 - What are you, the legal police?
Posted by MacCrocodile on February 2, 2012 at 4:05 PM
16
Reversing Washington's hyper-regressive tax structure is the state's single most important issue. Keep pounding away at it, Goldy. And while you're at it, keep at sharp eye on our legislators' major supporters. Marriage equality doesn't hit big players in the pocketbook very directly or significantly; fair taxation does.
Posted by PCM on February 2, 2012 at 5:08 PM
17
@15 "What are you, the legal police?"

Not hardly.

I just think there is a significant difference between being unwilling to return the gift the signature gatherer gave you, and stealing some stupid tool of evil's pen, even in the name of justice.
Posted by Because, really, fuck them on February 2, 2012 at 5:33 PM

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