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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

2012 / Election Burner Poll Shows Burner Leading Crowded Field in First Congressional District Race

Posted by Goldy on Tue, Jan 31, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Yes, it's an internal poll, and campaigns only release (or leak) their own polls when it serves their interests. But those caveats aside, this poll looks pretty good for Darcy Burner.

Among primary voters who vote for one of the Democratic candidates on the initial ballot, Darcy Burner currently leads the pack with a decisive lead. Burner leads with nearly half of the vote (45%), followed by Laura Ruderman (15%), Steve Hobbs (13%), Suzan DelBene (12%), Roger Goodman (10%), and Darshan Rauniyar (5%).

The poll, based on a random sample of 504 likely 1st CD primary voters, conducted by Lake Research Partners on behalf of the Burner campaign, between January 23-26, has a sampling error of +/- 4.4 percent. It also found that 54 percent of ~~respondents~~ "primary election voters who pick a Democratic candidate in the initial ballot" have a favorable opinion of Burner, while only 9 percent have an unfavorable opinion. So much for the "everybody hates Darcy" meme.

Again, campaigns tend to only release polling results when it's to their advantage. My understanding is that Suzan DelBene's campaign also had a poll in the field in January, and I've got a call in asking if they have different results. No word yet.

As I wrote following last week's candidate forum, it sure looked like the other Dems were running against Burner, as if she were the frontrunner, not DelBene, as has been widely presumed. So perhaps this polling data somewhat explains that dynamic?

Comments (10) RSS

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I'd be more interested in a poll showing Burner v. Koster.

Posted by michaelp on January 31, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Why did she leak it to you?

Posted by Because you're her cheerleader and waterboy. on January 31, 2012 at 1:26 PM

@2: Darcy "leaked" the poll to her entire email list in a fundraising blast.

Posted by junipero on January 31, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Of course if you run a poll that asks if you'd vote for Snow White, vs the Wicked Witch of the West, the Grinch, Cruella DeVille, Voldemort and Darth Vader, Snow White is going to win. Yellow journalism, and maybe Goldy should work on that impartiality that used to be a standard of his profession...

Posted by janedoe98502 on January 31, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Jay Inslee's district is so racially skewed (and he did nothing about it for 10 years).

I was hoping they'd be more inclusive with the redistricting there.

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe

on January 31, 2012 at 3:53 PM

What happens on the day after Election Day 2012 when the people of the WA-1 wake up to see ANOTHER Darcy Burner loss in what should have been a very winnable race in a competitive district? If this is the best Washington State Dems can do, we're all in trouble! My hunch is as the election draws near, someone with a proven track record of winning elections and passing legislation is going to win!!

Posted by DannyG on January 31, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Darcy Burner needs to LEAVE

Posted by pioneer on February 1, 2012 at 7:43 AM

Danny is quite correct - as much as WA Dems may line up with her positions on some issues, we've been "burnered" too many times in November when she is the candidate. We can't afford to be again. Track record and experience trump here, or they should.

Posted by JackB on February 1, 2012 at 7:48 AM

Wow!! Why the hate for Darcy? And if shes so bad, who is better? Do you really think corporate puppet Suzan DelBene is better?

Posted by Phil Perspective on February 1, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Phil - good questions. First, it's not "hate". I like a lot of Darcy's positions and have no issues with her as a person. It's not about that at all. But if we don't put together a rock-solid strategy for winning this district, the Republican who would get into office would be a disaster. Right now, among this field, Laura Ruderman appears to me, anyway, to far and away be the most qualified, not only from prior experience in the state legislature, but in the critical area of having a track record of winning a district at the state level almost identical, demographically, to this one. She is a savvy and smart campaigner while at the same time not compromising principles. She wrestled the 45th district away from being a long-held Repub stronghold, and then continued to get re-elected. I don't expect everyone to be supporting her, but I hope people will do the requisite research before deciding. I live in the 45th and 1st districts and have seen Ruderman in action. If she is our nominee, the opposition will have a hard fight on their hands. Its not about hate, it's about track record. There are no guarantees in politics, but there certainly are pros and cons to be weighed based on track records.

Posted by JackB on February 3, 2012 at 9:00 AM