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Friday, January 20, 2012

Will Newt Gingrich Win South Carolina?

Posted by on Fri, Jan 20, 2012 at 1:34 PM

A Clemson University Palmetto Poll has Newt Gingrich in the lead and outside the 5-point margin of error in South Carolina:

Gingrich 32
Romney 26
Paul 11
Santorum 9

The South Carolina polls close tomorrow at 4 pm Seattle time. We'll be Slogging the results, speeches, and other happenings all night long. Drop by and join us, you know, if you have nothing better to do on a Saturday night.


Comments (10) RSS

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ryanayr 1…

If that is any indication, somebody is very afraid that he will.
Posted by ryanayr on January 20, 2012 at 1:42 PM · Report this
Pretty sure that's not how MoE works, Paul. It's +/-. In other words, the maximum MoE is Gingrich 32-5=27% and Romney 26+5=31%. Someone smarter can correct me if I'm wrong.
Posted by Ben in Tacoma on January 20, 2012 at 1:42 PM · Report this
Cato the Younger Younger 3
South Carolina is cool with open marriages...who knew? Very top drawer..very top drawer! (I'm still trying to use old expressions in my postings for 2012!)
Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on January 20, 2012 at 1:45 PM · Report this
ryanayr 4
@2 - It's true, the probability that Romney will get greater than 30% of the vote and Gingrich less than 30% is not zero. Especially with a sample size of 429 respondents, the bell curve centered at each outcome is rather broad. But the headline "the probability of Romney beating Gingrich becomes vanishingly small, low sample-size survey says" doesn't have that news-ey kick, does it?
Posted by ryanayr on January 20, 2012 at 1:53 PM · Report this
As utterly vile and despicable as Gingrich is, I am only too happy to see all the Republican hypocrites in the most backward state of the union, SC, choose him as their champion in their primary. The more the Republican race can be strung along, the more damage is done to Romney in the long run.
Posted by tniel on January 20, 2012 at 2:00 PM · Report this
@2 The margin of error reported, generally, applies to each point estimate and NOT to the difference, so you are pretty much spot on. That said, there is a mean-variance relationship in multinomial data such as this and the actual estimate of the margin of error will be different for each candidate's point estimate (the closer to 50% the more variable the estimate, the closer to 1 or 0 the less variable the estimate).
Posted by BLUE on January 20, 2012 at 3:36 PM · Report this
Reverse Polarity 7
I hope Gingrich DOES win tomorrow. It would be even more entertaining if Ron Paul won, but that seems unlikely. In any case, if anyone but Romney wins, all the better. That just assures a longer, bloodier, more money wasting republican primary -- which only benefits the democrats.
Posted by Reverse Polarity on January 20, 2012 at 4:02 PM · Report this
OuterCow 8
What, no polling on Cain/Colbert?
Posted by OuterCow on January 20, 2012 at 4:43 PM · Report this
Newt does exhibit a broad spectrum of material for people to use against him. But I see someone I would hire to "Get the Job Done". Combine that prospect with a presidential backed congress and watch the business investment and jobs go off the chart. Repeal health care . Plus Iran does not want a older generation Conservative from the Reagan era .
Posted by Lizard Lounge on January 20, 2012 at 5:19 PM · Report this
zombie eyes 10
Santorum is bringing up the rear.
Posted by zombie eyes on January 21, 2012 at 8:44 AM · Report this

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