Slog
News & ArtsFriday, January 20, 2012
2012 / Election Obama Wins! (With a 77.5 Percent Probability)
Posted by Goldy on Fri, Jan 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM
- HorsesAss.org
Over at HA, Darryl is running his election year meta polling analysis again, and with a few more state polls published, President Barack Obama continues to hold a 77.5 percent probability of defeating likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a head to head contest.
Of course, you know, if the election were held today (which it's not), and the data out is only as good as the data in, and all those other caveats. But Darryl was freakishly accurate in projecting the final delegate count in 2008 (he failed to account for Nebraska splitting its delegates), so it's a useful snapshot that will help us track voter sentiment over time. Dis it all you want in the comment thread, but you might want to read the methodology FAQ before presuming he's an idiot or a liar.
(Oh... and in case you're wondering about bias, Darryl's latest analysis of the Washington governor's race shows Republican Rob McKenna with a 71.5 percent probability of winning.)
3
Swear-engine: Yes, yes we do. It's gratifying to see in so many ways how progressives will absolutely tromp the clown-car of idiocy that is the current conservative party of 2012.
It is gratifying to remind the wingnuts over and over just how stupid and irrational their party has become. One hopes they will get it someday and return to a rational course. But until then, we keep reminding them.
It is gratifying to remind the wingnuts over and over just how stupid and irrational their party has become. One hopes they will get it someday and return to a rational course. But until then, we keep reminding them.
4
Even Romney's supporters don't like the man, so it all comes down to how much antipathy will President Obama be engendering come November.
Thanks to Roger Ailes, Limbaugh, Hannity, and the rest of the right-wing propaganda machine, there's quite a lot of animus in the general electorate towards Obama now. My only hope is that they peaked too soon.
This may be one of the lowest-turnout elections in history. The most important thing any of us can do is try to get people registered to vote and resigned to voting for Obama, even if they're disappointed in him. Fascism is just around the corner otherwise. Just look at the traction anti-Judiciary rhetoric is getting at the Republican debates.
Thanks to Roger Ailes, Limbaugh, Hannity, and the rest of the right-wing propaganda machine, there's quite a lot of animus in the general electorate towards Obama now. My only hope is that they peaked too soon.
This may be one of the lowest-turnout elections in history. The most important thing any of us can do is try to get people registered to vote and resigned to voting for Obama, even if they're disappointed in him. Fascism is just around the corner otherwise. Just look at the traction anti-Judiciary rhetoric is getting at the Republican debates.
7
The South Carolina projection is based on a single poll, and is probably wrong, but given the known data it's the only way to call it. South Carolina isn't just the scary people at the GOP debates. Obama could win there, the odds are just a bit high.
10
@8 Slog is just a blog. Even so, it has far more journalistic integrity than anything that comes out of Newscorp or Clear Channel.
12
Just poking around wikipedia, I see that Premiere Networks, the rado programming/talent arm of Clear Channel, and the home of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, is owned in part by none other than Bain Capital.
14
@3, actually, it's in our interests to actively encourage their idiocy and de-evolution. The more lunatic they become, the more likely it will become that every election cycle they will be more and more strident, and increasingly likely to piss off independents and mainstream Americans. Let's let them overdose on pure ideological crystal meth. It's good for America in the long run, as it will destroy their brand and public acceptance of their ideas for a generation or more.
Go Tea Party! Go Tea Party! Go Tea Party!
Go Tea Party! Go Tea Party! Go Tea Party!
15
Um, wasn’t the previous outlook a 98% probability and over 300 electoral votes? This doesn’t look that great for Obama heading into the summer and fall. Florida has to be in contention for Obama, with a couple states like North Carolina and maybe even Indiana in contention, to see a good outlook..
I see this more that Romney is more in striking distance, and even with the probability, Ohio can switch to Romney and give him the election...
I see this more that Romney is more in striking distance, and even with the probability, Ohio can switch to Romney and give him the election...
16
There is so much wrong with this map. Romney is projected to win Michigan? He abandoned Detroit during the auto-bail out, actively working against it, and that's not going to help there at all. Ohio and Pennsylvania are more likely to swing than Michigan. And Obama wins the Carolinas? Really? I highly doubt that.
17
Yeah, I'll believe Romney takes Michigan -favorite son thing- but don't believe Obama will win SC. I think he has a greater chance of winning FL than SC (unless Rubio is the VP). Otherwise interesting projections.
18
I'm sorry, I just don't buy a scenario in which Obama loses new Hampshire, Michigan and Florida, but wins the Carolinas. This is not a knock on Darryl, but at this point in the cycle I can only imagine that the available data sources must be crappy.
19
While I want Inslee to win and think McKenna is a conservative he is not a tea partiers and not going to be Walker. First of all no Republican legislator and 2nd of all Walker is getting recalled right now. No way McKenna is dumb enough to see that and try to be the same way.
20
@10 & 13, Jesus effing slip-sliding Christ....ease the fuk up. Are you really that daft and devoid of a sense of humor?
Take a bong hit.
Take a bong hit.
21
Don't vote unless there is someone to vote for. Obomba the Droner is not an option on principle of his willingness to assassinate & make it possible to warehouse human beings without due process with a flick of his pen.
Only way to send them a message. Stay home!
Only way to send them a message. Stay home!
22
The methodology may be flawless and unparalleled but (I say this every fucking time Goldy and SLOG publishes an estimate of something) if you don't publish a confidence interval or standard error or some measure of variance your point estimate is just a lying sack of shit. I'm guessing that with MCMC the estimated standard error is quite small but that doesn't mean you get away without publishing it. The reason it matters is that it's prophylactic against me polling a single individual and publishing my poll stating 100% in favor of...
24
@ 21 There is someone to vote for Obama has been a pretty good President. And there is a difference between assassination and targeted killings I suggest you learn the difference.
25
Thank God, Obama wins!
@Goldy,: I mean, look at the major differences between Romney & Obama.
Romney is for cutting all taxes on corporations (are there any corps. who still pay taxes???) and removing all regulations (what regulations???) remaining on corporations.
Romney is against gay marriage.
Obama is for cutting all taxes on corporations (are there any corps. who still pay taxes???) and removing all regulations (what regulations???) remaining on corporations.
Obama is against gay marriage.
Geez, like there's so much difference between the two, golly whillikers!!!!
@Goldy,: I mean, look at the major differences between Romney & Obama.
Romney is for cutting all taxes on corporations (are there any corps. who still pay taxes???) and removing all regulations (what regulations???) remaining on corporations.
Romney is against gay marriage.
Obama is for cutting all taxes on corporations (are there any corps. who still pay taxes???) and removing all regulations (what regulations???) remaining on corporations.
Obama is against gay marriage.
Geez, like there's so much difference between the two, golly whillikers!!!!
26
Idiot @25,
Obama has appointed 2 liberal supreme court justices, thus assuring women of the continuing right to choose to have an abortion for the forseeable future. So you're correct and Obama hasn't done anything worthwhile & all. I'm just glad abortion isn't really a contentious issue, so that we can continue to espouse your position.
Obama has appointed 2 liberal supreme court justices, thus assuring women of the continuing right to choose to have an abortion for the forseeable future. So you're correct and Obama hasn't done anything worthwhile & all. I'm just glad abortion isn't really a contentious issue, so that we can continue to espouse your position.
27
@21 That's just retarded. I understand your reasons for not supporting Obama and I echo them, but you still need to vote. There's Rocky Anderson, you could write in Colbert, whatever the fuck you want, but the more "principled voters" stay home and don't even vote, the more we're marginalized. If you actually want to show your dissatisfaction with the crop of candidates fielded by our two party duopoly, then you vote 3rd party. It's a long term strategy, but we need you there voting, especially so we can try and vote progressives into lower levels of office where we actually have a chance.
@24 No, tell me the fucking difference betwixt assassinations and targeted killings, you pathetic, brainless Obamabot sheep. Please, tell me what the actually difference is in the real world betwixt targeting a specific person for murder and... targeting a specific person for murder.
@24 No, tell me the fucking difference betwixt assassinations and targeted killings, you pathetic, brainless Obamabot sheep. Please, tell me what the actually difference is in the real world betwixt targeting a specific person for murder and... targeting a specific person for murder.
29
YAY! 4 more years of the same shit over and over again just because no one ever considers voting for any other party. Way to win US.
30
@26, mikethehammer,
"Obama has appointed 2 liberal supreme court justices..."
@26, mikey, would you please refrain from mindlessly repeating something you heard or read, and first try reflecting upon the facts?
Fact: While Kagan was at Harvard law everyone she appointed belonged to the most neocon of neocon outfits, the Federalist Society.
Fact: Kagan, in turn, was appointed to her position at Harvard by Larry Summers, the very same Summers who : "suggested that the under-representation of women in science and engineering could be due to a "different availability of aptitude at the high end," and less to patterns of discrimination and socialization."
Summers also said: "..that unemployment insurance and welfare payments are a major contributor to unemployment, and therefore should be scaled back."
When Summers was the Chief Economist for the World Bank(ster), he said: "There are no... limits to the carrying capacity of the earth that are likely to bind any time in the foreseeable future. There isn't a risk of an apocalypse due to global warming or anything else."
From Wikipedia: Summers was a leading voice within the Clinton Administration arguing against American leadership in greenhouse gas reductions and against US participation in the Kyoto Protocol, according to internal documents made public in 2009.
And also, Summers hailed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which lifted more than six decades of restrictions against banks offering commercial banking, insurance, and investment services (by repealing key provisions in the 1933 Glass–Steagall Act): "Today Congress voted to update the rules that have governed financial services since the Great Depression and replace them with a system for the 21st century," Summers said.
Fact: Kagan's immediate relatives belong to quite a variety of ultra-neocon organizations, past and present. Ever heard of PNAC, per chance?
While it no longer exists, dig up their old membership list and look under "Kagan" (father and brother).
Her first cousin belongs to the ultra-neocon successor to PNAC (PNAC, Version 2.0), the Foundation in Defense of Democracies.
Feel free to offer any counterfacts which might lead one to believe she actually is a "liberal" -- but please don't sully that wonderful word by tossing it around like a urine stain on an alley wall!
Regarding Sotomayor, your second claim.
Fact: When her nomination to SCOTUS was announced, she received a favorable rating from the insurance industry.
Does that sound "liberal" to your, @mikethe hammer????
Sotomayor delivered judgments overwhelmingly in favor of the insurance companies, but with only several exceptions. With each of those exceptions, she was the junior member on a three-judge panel, where she deferred, or followed the lead, of the senior judge, and in each case the finding was extremely limited as to the financial settlements.
@mikethehammer, are you one of those blithely low information voter types who believes Hillary Clinton to also be a "liberal"?
You might try familiarizing yourself with Clinton's rightwing voting record when she was in the senate.
Also, do you know who Marc Grossman is, by any remote chance? Hillary recently appointed him as her chief of staff. Odd, given that Grossman was part of George W. Bush's inner circle, and appointed by Bush to be the third top guy at State.
Grossman was also implicated in a shadowy ring or organization which stole and sold nuclear secrets and weapons technology to foreign nations and the black market, or shadow arms market. (See Sibel Edmonds sworn -- and unchallenged -- testimony before the Ohio Election Commission on behalf of David Krikorian.)
Marc Grossman was also the specific individual who "outed" Valerie Plame (Wilson), and by doing so shut down Brewster Jennings and Associates, the CIA's WMD counterproliferation operations, thereby halting their investigation into Grossman's gang of treasonous thieves.
(This wasn't a simple corporate shutdown, sonny, people died, both agents, and their informants!)
All this sound "liberal" to you, @mikethehammer???? You might further wish to check into the connections between Grossman's activities, the Clintons and Mena Airport. Also, what private equity firm and lobbyist firms Bill Clinton joined after he left the White House. Also, those people whose lives were destroyed by the Clintons' actions.
The only qualitative difference between Romney and Obama is that while Romney is a private bankster, Obama only appoints private banksters.
More...
"Obama has appointed 2 liberal supreme court justices..."
@26, mikey, would you please refrain from mindlessly repeating something you heard or read, and first try reflecting upon the facts?
Fact: While Kagan was at Harvard law everyone she appointed belonged to the most neocon of neocon outfits, the Federalist Society.
Fact: Kagan, in turn, was appointed to her position at Harvard by Larry Summers, the very same Summers who : "suggested that the under-representation of women in science and engineering could be due to a "different availability of aptitude at the high end," and less to patterns of discrimination and socialization."
Summers also said: "..that unemployment insurance and welfare payments are a major contributor to unemployment, and therefore should be scaled back."
When Summers was the Chief Economist for the World Bank(ster), he said: "There are no... limits to the carrying capacity of the earth that are likely to bind any time in the foreseeable future. There isn't a risk of an apocalypse due to global warming or anything else."
From Wikipedia: Summers was a leading voice within the Clinton Administration arguing against American leadership in greenhouse gas reductions and against US participation in the Kyoto Protocol, according to internal documents made public in 2009.
And also, Summers hailed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which lifted more than six decades of restrictions against banks offering commercial banking, insurance, and investment services (by repealing key provisions in the 1933 Glass–Steagall Act): "Today Congress voted to update the rules that have governed financial services since the Great Depression and replace them with a system for the 21st century," Summers said.
Fact: Kagan's immediate relatives belong to quite a variety of ultra-neocon organizations, past and present. Ever heard of PNAC, per chance?
While it no longer exists, dig up their old membership list and look under "Kagan" (father and brother).
Her first cousin belongs to the ultra-neocon successor to PNAC (PNAC, Version 2.0), the Foundation in Defense of Democracies.
Feel free to offer any counterfacts which might lead one to believe she actually is a "liberal" -- but please don't sully that wonderful word by tossing it around like a urine stain on an alley wall!
Regarding Sotomayor, your second claim.
Fact: When her nomination to SCOTUS was announced, she received a favorable rating from the insurance industry.
Does that sound "liberal" to your, @mikethe hammer????
Sotomayor delivered judgments overwhelmingly in favor of the insurance companies, but with only several exceptions. With each of those exceptions, she was the junior member on a three-judge panel, where she deferred, or followed the lead, of the senior judge, and in each case the finding was extremely limited as to the financial settlements.
@mikethehammer, are you one of those blithely low information voter types who believes Hillary Clinton to also be a "liberal"?
You might try familiarizing yourself with Clinton's rightwing voting record when she was in the senate.
Also, do you know who Marc Grossman is, by any remote chance? Hillary recently appointed him as her chief of staff. Odd, given that Grossman was part of George W. Bush's inner circle, and appointed by Bush to be the third top guy at State.
Grossman was also implicated in a shadowy ring or organization which stole and sold nuclear secrets and weapons technology to foreign nations and the black market, or shadow arms market. (See Sibel Edmonds sworn -- and unchallenged -- testimony before the Ohio Election Commission on behalf of David Krikorian.)
Marc Grossman was also the specific individual who "outed" Valerie Plame (Wilson), and by doing so shut down Brewster Jennings and Associates, the CIA's WMD counterproliferation operations, thereby halting their investigation into Grossman's gang of treasonous thieves.
(This wasn't a simple corporate shutdown, sonny, people died, both agents, and their informants!)
All this sound "liberal" to you, @mikethehammer???? You might further wish to check into the connections between Grossman's activities, the Clintons and Mena Airport. Also, what private equity firm and lobbyist firms Bill Clinton joined after he left the White House. Also, those people whose lives were destroyed by the Clintons' actions.
The only qualitative difference between Romney and Obama is that while Romney is a private bankster, Obama only appoints private banksters.
31
@mikethehammer,
Ya know, mikey, that Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report was handed some time ago to Obama and his DOJ, yet President Obama continues to dishonestly and publicly proclaim that the banksters broke no laws.
Ever hear of Clayton Holdings and Vicki Beal? Ever hear about a multitude of felonies and crimes????
Try reading that report and for once in your life acting like a real citizen, for a change!
Ya know, mikey, that Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report was handed some time ago to Obama and his DOJ, yet President Obama continues to dishonestly and publicly proclaim that the banksters broke no laws.
Ever hear of Clayton Holdings and Vicki Beal? Ever hear about a multitude of felonies and crimes????
Try reading that report and for once in your life acting like a real citizen, for a change!
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