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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Inslee Closing the Gap in Governor's Race?

Posted by on Tue, Jan 17, 2012 at 10:32 AM

According to this King5 poll, yes:

In a poll of 617 registered voters statewide, conducted on landlines and cell phones, 46% told SurveyUSA they would vote for McKenna, while 43% said they would support Inslee. A couple months ago, McKenna’s lead over Inslee was six points. The poll has a margin of +/- 4%.

When asked about specific issues, voters in the poll expressed more confidence in McKenna on managing the state budget—44% say the attorney general would do a better job than 35% for Congressman Inslee. And on education, McKenna leads as well (40% to 35% for Inslee).

However, Inslee does better if voters make their decisions on social issues and the environment. In the poll, 43% say Inslee better reflects their position on social issues, compared to 40% for McKenna. And on the environment, a hallmark issue for Inslee, he has a double-digit advantage with 45% saying Inslee would be stronger than McKenna, whom 30% felt would be better for the environment.

Inslee hasn't laid out any specific budget platforms, so there's room for him to close the gap in that area, and his lead on social issues will only get stronger (in Seattle, at least, which is where he needs support) as the debate over gay marriage and the Reproductive Parity Act—which would require all health insurance policies sold in Washington that offer maternity coverage to also cover abortions—heats up. McKenna remains conspicuously silent on women's reproductive rights and nearly incoherent (but disapproving) when it comes to allowing lesbians and gays marry.

 

Comments (5) RSS

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1
Inslee is in a good position because he really does't yet have the name recognition and is already polling in a positive direction. McKenna on the other hand, is known state wide, so you might think he has reached his peak.

The biggest challenge is to erode McKenna's moderate image. He has never been a moderate just a very savvy politician. He has seen how Rossi's campaigns, as stealth as they were, still imploded over social issues. It will be very hard to pin him down on issues such as woman's rights and marriage equality because he knows it will cost him votes.

Budget wise, the current governor, house and senate have already slashed the budget very painfully without any tax increases. Does the GOP really want to make even more austere cuts key to their platform? Not all of the voters of Washington are that misinformed as to believe that line of crap.

McKenna has no need right now to pander to the far right. He is the GOP nominee and will breeze through the primary. Right now he has the time to tack hard to the middle and give the impression he has been there all along.
Posted by kmq1 on January 17, 2012 at 10:53 AM
Daddy Love 2
Yes, McKenna is at his ceiling, and it's well below 50%. Good news.
Posted by Daddy Love on January 17, 2012 at 11:45 AM
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 3
WA Repubs dug their own grave by letting the social conservatives run rampant. We Moderates need a bigger say.
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://yrihf.com on January 17, 2012 at 12:26 PM
michaelp 4
I'm reminded of the 2009 Governor's race, where Joe Mallahan, the frontrunner (and Greg Nickels int he primary) according to the press, reached a number that looked good, but then stalled.

I haven't really seen McKenna's numbers move in any significant way, while Inslee has seen more and more increases. While the Seattle Times may believe the CW is that McKenna wins the governor's mansion, all things considered, I'm pretty sure we're looking at an Inslee win.

And that's a good thing...even if he is inarticulate.
Posted by michaelp on January 17, 2012 at 3:51 PM
michaelp 5
And by "Governor" I mean "Seattle Mayor"
Posted by michaelp on January 17, 2012 at 3:52 PM

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