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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

There Might Be a Republican Enthusiasm Gap

Posted by on Tue, Jan 10, 2012 at 6:27 PM

FiveThirtyEight says that despite predictions of a record Republican turnout, it looks like the 2012 New Hampshire primary brought out far fewer voters than the 2008 primary. They're projecting 185,000 votes this time compared to 240,000 votes four years ago. And it gets worse:

The drop-off in turnout looks worse for Republicans since a higher fraction of voters - about half this year, compared to 37 percent in 2008 - are independents. That means that turnout among registered Republicans could alone be off by nearly 40 percent from 2008.


Comments (12) RSS

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Posted by the idiot formerly known as kk on January 10, 2012 at 6:38 PM · Report this
@1, I was about to say the exact same thing.
Posted by SPG on January 10, 2012 at 6:45 PM · Report this
Maybe loads of them have died off or have gone to jail for fraud...
Posted by yeehaw yanky my wanky on January 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 4
@3 for the win.
Posted by Will in Seattle on January 10, 2012 at 7:37 PM · Report this
Julie in Eugene 5
So, anecdotal, but my Christian aunt/uncle in Iowa stayed home from the caucuses this year because they didn't like any of the candidates. They have been harbingers in elections past (they seem to be a weird portal into the Republican zeitgeist), so, when they said that I immediate thought the Republicans are in trouble, enthusiasm gap wise...
Posted by Julie in Eugene on January 10, 2012 at 9:11 PM · Report this
Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In 6
Insanity is a lonely place.
Posted by Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In on January 10, 2012 at 10:03 PM · Report this
When the time comes, republicans will do their duty and vote for whoever they are told to vote for. And with all of the republican voter suppression efforts we will have a President Romney -- that is, if the young people don't vote. Again.
Posted by montex on January 10, 2012 at 10:54 PM · Report this
matt 8
Mr. Silver noticed that there was an uptick at the end:…
Posted by matt on January 10, 2012 at 11:37 PM · Report this
MarkyMark 9
This election is going to be All About Turnout, on both sides. Of course I'm praying :) that, nationwide, the religious right is going to be unwilling to get off their duffs to vote for a Mormon - and from Massachusetts, eeek! Unfortunately millions who turned out for the first time to vote for Obama also probably won't be motivated either this time around.
Posted by MarkyMark on January 11, 2012 at 12:31 AM · Report this
sadly, the numbers are about 240k so they hit the projection. A rare miss for Nate. Still I bet a lot of those are Independents who jumped in to vote for Paul. I don't see large numbers of them making the switch to Willard in November.
Posted by frankdawg on January 11, 2012 at 4:53 AM · Report this
geoz 11
I live in NH and it was strange at the voting area. Usually there are people there with signs supporting their respective candidates - usually they are spilling out into the street. This year.... not one. The signs were planted in the ground but not a sole all day.

At the same time, half of the voters did turn out to vote, which is a relatively high number.

Today I was most pleased to see that Santorum and Perry, the two big culture warriors, were at the bottom of the result for my town.
Posted by geoz on January 11, 2012 at 6:29 AM · Report this
You can't make too much of the percentage of independents. Independents can vote in either D or R primary. This year there wasn't a D primary so they all went to the R primary. Actually, if anything it would make me nervous if it meant that more independents are leaning Republican.
Posted by Root on January 11, 2012 at 6:44 AM · Report this

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