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News & ArtsWednesday, January 4, 2012
2012 / 2008 Mitt Romney's 30,000-Something-Vote Ceiling
Posted by Goldy on Wed, Jan 4, 2012 at 12:18 AM
While most of the pundits focused on the virtual tie between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney in the Iowa Republican caucus, I was captivated by the possibility of an even less likely scenario: that Romney might exactly match his 2008 Iowa totals.
In 2008, Romney finished second behind Mike Huckabee, with 30,021 votes, or 25.19 percent. Four years and about $3.4 million later, Romney has apparently finished with 30,015 votes, or 24.55 percent, just 8 votes ahead of second place Santorum, and a mere six votes short of his 2008 totals. Of course these results aren't yet official, and Karl Rove hasn't necessarily finished marking all his ballots, so another 6 vote pickup isn't out of the question.
Kinda amazing.
Remember, Iowa was spun as a big loss for Romney back in 2008—a loss from which he never really recovered. But the only difference for Romney between 2008 and 2012, is that this time around, conservative caucus goers didn't coalesce behind a single candidate. Romney's numbers didn't budge at all. Compare that to Ron Paul, the only other holdover from the 2008 nomination fight: Paul more than doubled his Iowa numbers.
It's damn hard to see how anybody but Romney wins the GOP nomination, but if he does, his Iowa numbers suggest that his victory won't be the result of any surge of popularity within Republican ranks. Rather, it's the general weakness of the rest of the field that's proving to be the secret to Romney's success, a formula that doesn't bode well for November.
SIX ROMNEY SUPPORTERS DIE IN IOWA!
Or maybe they just moved away.
well- that guy has just soared over the past four years!
Goldy, remind us what Obama's approval rating are now compared to at the beginning of the term.....
5
Obviously, what we need here is Ron Paul and Donald Trump to run as independents.
of course Newt or Perry would give their nuts for a 30,000 vote ceiling.......
8
What's really more interesting is this: Will Santorum be the one that the hardcore cons rally behind and stick with? Too soon to say - we need to see what happens in New Hampshire and South Carolina. But if the frothy one wins or comes in a close second in those states, we'll be in for a great GOP nomination campaign.
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http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/c…
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