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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Transportation / Politics / Money Social Engineering

Posted by Goldy on Tue, Jan 3, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The Washington Department of Transportation reports that traffic was down about 37 percent on the 520 floating bridge this morning, the first day of post-holiday tolling.

The decline is roughly in line with estimates on the impact tolling would have on the bridge, which costs drivers up to $3.50 — plus a $1.50 surcharge for those without the stickers — during rush hour. When the tolling began Dec. 29, traffic was down even more at nearly 50 percent, but that was during the holiday week between Christmas and New Years.

The decline was in line with estimates because people respond predictably to economic incentives by changing their behavior. That's the notion behind long term plans to implement congestion pricing in the region as a means of regulating traffic—tolling plans critics typically berate as "social engineering."

It's true. But you know what else is a form of social engineering? Freeways.

Providing toll-free roads on the taxpayers' dime also changes behavior, by incentivizing people to drive their cars more often and further distances. You can argue whether that's a good or a bad thing, but it's social engineering nonetheless, and it's the kind of social engineering that has built suburbs and strip malls, and has generally reshaped our nation over the past 75 years or so.

So while you could say that traffic on the 520 bridge is down 37 percent in response to the new tolls, it might be equally accurate to say that traffic had been inflated 37 percent due to the prior lack of tolling.

Comments (19) RSS

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I was so happy to pay the toll. Driving across during morning rush at full speed (or maybe a little more). The toll is only a burden if your time and gasoline are worthless when taking the alternatives. Don't tell people that though, I liked my quick commute. Prediction is that people will return and pay the toll once they discover the non-tolled routes have a huge cost in time/gas.

Posted by SchmuckyTheCat on January 3, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Actually it might be equally accurate to say that traffic had been INFLATED 58.7% due to the prior lack of tolling. Goldy Math strikes again

Posted by Reader01 on January 3, 2012 at 11:04 AM

My bad! it's actually 70.27%! Still at least I know what the hell I'm doing

Posted by Reader01 on January 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

The tolls will help resolve some living patterns, encouraging people to work closer to home.

Posted by MrBaker

on January 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

@3: Whatever. I was making rhetorical point, which still stands, regardless my mathematical carelessness.

Posted by Goldy on January 3, 2012 at 11:09 AM

you'll have plenty of time to practice your math sitting on I-90 with the other silly cheapskates

Posted by nobody does the math ever on January 3, 2012 at 11:14 AM

"So while you could say that traffic on the 520 bridge is down 37 percent in response to the new tolls, it might be equally accurate to say that traffic had been inflated 37 percent due to the prior lack of tolling."

Goldy, your lack of understanding basic statistics is only rivaled by your complete lack of understanding traffic and road design.

Really, you should stop writing anything about traffic. You have as much demonstrable understanding and authority in this area as Rick Santorum has in feminism.

Posted by AFB123 on January 3, 2012 at 11:14 AM

There are still a lot of people on holiday. The garage at my office building was only half full this morning, and normally it's packed.

I'm very interested in this experiment. It might foretell what will happen when the tolled tunnel opens right next to non-tolled routes. We'll have to wait at least a month, though, to see how this settles out.

Posted by Free Lunch on January 3, 2012 at 11:16 AM

@3. You were right the first time (@2). You *almost* know what you're doing. But you and I are both trolling. Goldy's point stands. :)

Posted by Reader100/63=1.587... on January 3, 2012 at 11:24 AM

If tolling increased traffic 37% then not tolling created a 59% increase. Let's say the normal un-tolled flow is 100 cars (per something). After tolling it drops 37% to 63 cars (per whatever). How much do you have to increase 63 to get back to 100 cars? 59% give or take a small decimal place.

Posted by Modern Classic on January 3, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I guess the viaduct tunnel is an experiment of social engineering. Maybe we'll see some inflated traffic numbers once its completed?

Kinda odd how SLOG will claim viaduct tunnel tolls will cause carmegeddon on surface streets downtown. But on the 520 bridge, its absolutely needed, just as long as the money is used to complete the Seattle side first , fuck the east side (who cares if a windstorm sinks it. I got mine).

And when it comes to voting down Tim Eyman initiatives, not being able to toll is going to kill babies!!!

Posted by Kinison

on January 3, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Goldy is the stupidest. His posts are even dumber than those by "Will in Seattle".

Posted by 'Will in Seattle' is LESS ANNOYING than 'Goldy' on January 3, 2012 at 11:35 AM

i'm with free lunch @8. i think next week's numbers will be more representative. people are still off routine today.

Posted by mr. herriman on January 3, 2012 at 11:36 AM

@8 Shit, I could have tolled you this was going to happen (har har!) The only way they could have avoided the shift in traffic over to I-90 would have been to toll both at the same time. Now they'll only equalize out when the cost of the toll is worth the reduced commute time and traffic- and sadly, as @1 pointed out, many commuters can't visualize the added gas costs of sitting in traffic versus the immediate cost of the toll.

Posted by UNPAID COMMENTER on January 3, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Anecdote wise, one of my colleagues says she couldn't find parking at her normal Eastside park and ride lot which was full and had to use this other backup park and ride lot that is usually virtually empty - but even that was about half full.

Transit for the win!

@8 has a point - Microsoft and the UW had holiday yesterday and some people extended it to the end of the week.

Check back with us next week on actual numbers.

@14 is correct that people take a while to realize what time and driving expense costs - that can take many months. In my case, I've found it can take 6-18 months before you clue in.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on January 3, 2012 at 12:11 PM

REAL NUMBERS AREN'T ACTUALLY IMPORTANT I'M TRYING TO MAKE A POINT HERE GUISE!!!!! - Goldy

Posted by Reader01 on January 3, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Remember, there's no toll if you take transit or ride in a tax-exempt Foundation limo to your tax-exempt Foundation ... And it's deductible from taxes too!

Posted by Will in Seattle

on January 3, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Where did that 37% go? If that amount went to I-90 or other routes, where's the upside?

Congestion pricing is a dumb idea, as it's yet another regressive tax on people least able to afford it. That SUV driver from the east side y'all hate will keep driving until gas gets to $10 a gallon. As you pointed out Goldy, freeways have been here for decades and the automobile is not going away.

Posted by Teslick on January 3, 2012 at 1:26 PM