I have lived in the DC area off and on for the better part of a decade, most of that in DC proper. There are so many things that reduce crime here that I don't think any type of statistical analysis can capture the truth of the situation. Consider this, in 2002, I called 911 to report teenagers walking down the street openly casing cars to break into. I sat on hold for a good 20 minutes before giving up, because by that point the kids were long gone from my street and I wasn't about to follow them to report their current location. The other week, I called 911 to report someone with a too-loud stereo on my block late at night (here you call 911 for any issue for which you need a police, fire, or EMS response, emergency or not), and my call was answered in seconds and the police rolled by within about 2 or 3 minutes.

Incomes and property values have also increased dramatically, bringing less crime-prone people into the city and pushing more crime-prone populations to neighboring suburban areas. The WaPo reported this week that decreases in the murder tally in far SE DC were nearly mirrored by INCREASES in the murder tally in the bordering areas of PG county. Add to this a couple of other factors: newcomers are less likely to tolerate crime and more likely to report it and actively fight it, this attitude empowers longer-term residents who were previously afraid to report for fear of retaliation (if you don't believe me, come talk to some of my neighbors), and the increased revenue from higher income and property taxes can fund services from police to street cleaning (yes, DC has taken a bit of the "fixing broken windows" strategy in the last decade).

DC has also invested in some crime-fighting technology. Not-so-successful have been the crime cameras, but the "shot-spotter" microphones seem to be super effective. Police know exactly where a gunshot goes off immediately, and respond promptly, even in the absence of a report. Laptops in cars, better radios and cell phones to coordinate responses, etc.

Finally, with the renewal of many neighborhoods in DC, there are simply more people on the street. In the first (bad) neighborhood I lived in here, I might have encountered the odd drunk or drug dealer or homeless person on my walk home...everyone else was locked up in their home as soon as the sun went down or they could get home from work. Most people who had to work odd shifts drove for fear of crime. And the neighborhood wasn't that dense anyway...no "highrises," many vacant homes and storefronts, etc. Now that area is home to thousands more residents, hundreds more stores, and lots of passers-by/shoppers/diners/etc. (like me) putting extra eyes on the street. Criminals don't generally like to commit crimes in well-populated areas.

As far as the nationwide reduction in violent crime...I'm not sure what the causes of that are. Surely gentrification and improved city services can be cited in many, if not most, urban areas, and these areas having higher crime rates, contribute disproportionately to the drop in crime. Otherwise, I think a bit more study is needed.

A few other observations that just occurred to me:

*Our homeless services are substantially better than they were even 10-12 years ago. Sure, we have work to do still, but the number of homeless people I see sleeping rough and hanging around throughout the city has dropped dramatically. Homeless people are often involved with crime, either as perpetrators or victims. Getting them to safe shelter, at least at night, provides an instant reduction in the crime-vulnerable population.

*I am 110% sure that Heller had little to nothing to do with it. Not only was the case too recent to be reflected, but it's still awfully hard to get a gun in DC and statistics show that most people have not availed themselves of the option. Even if you did manage to legally register a gun in DC, you still can't carry it, and very few people, before and now, get murdered in their homes (well, except for the DV and drug-deals gone bad and known-person incidents, which gun ownership would not impact appreciable as their both a small portion of crime and the circumstances say either everyone was armed to begin with or arming them wouldn't make a difference - I know I wouldn't think to pull a gun on a known neighbor who showed up at my door until they did, and by that point, it's probably too late for me to help myself).

*What we have seen an increase in are low-impact (to the criminal...even if they get caught the penalties for snatch a couple hundred dollar phone are pretty low) petty snatch and grabs by teenagers, mostly of electronics. This probably has to do with both the proliferation of such devices (nowadays, instead of wrestling some lady's purse that she's probably got a good grip on off of her, you can just grab someone's iPad out of their lap and run off the train) and their street value (cash is always good, but most people don't carry a lot of it around; credit cards are only valuable until their cancelled, and carry a not insignificant risk of getting caught; most teenage thieves aren't seasoned identity-theft pros, so a driver's license or passport isn't too valuable...compare that to hawking an iPad/Phone on craigslist or selling it on the street). For this, two pieces of advice: first, don't flash an Apple product (I have yet to hear of large numbers of Android and Blackberry devices being stolen, and have even seen reports of criminals ditching an Android they mistook for an iPhone, since the Androids simply don't have the street value); and see what happens as people start to fight back (there have been numerous reports - including one first-hand from a friend - of Metro passengers "recovering" the snatched electronics themselves... usually with a good bit of force (clotheslining the kid as he ran away, in my friend's story)...if that trend continues I expect to see the incidents decline).

So it's all too mixed for me to draw any conclusions. Criminal elements being pushed from the city by gentrification and citizen activism, better city services, better technology, more eyes on the street, etc. And still we have non-violent or minimally-violent (those snatches are "robberies" and are considered violent) crime at rates that cause one to pause.

So I looked up and read in full this very first article that one commenter posted (and that I see has been deleted repeatedly). This article is directly connected to the topic. Can someone please explain how it violates the comment policy?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/blac…

By Carol Morello and Dan Keating, Published: March 24, 2011

The number of African Americans residing in the District plummeted by more than 11 percent during the past decade, with blacks on the verge of losing their majority status in the city for the first time in half a century.

According to census statistics released Thursday, barely 50 percent of the District’s population was African American in 2010 — a remarkable shift in a place once nicknamed “Chocolate City.”
The black population dropped by more than 39,000 over the decade, down to 301,000 of the city’s 601,700 residents. At the same time, the non-Hispanic white population skyrocketed by more than 50,000 to 209,000 residents, almost a third higher than a decade earlier.

The census statistics showed a steeper change for both blacks and whites than had been estimated. With the city ‘s black population dropping by about 1 percent a year, African Americans might already be below the 50 percent mark in the city.

In a city that prides itself on being a hub of black culture and politics, a majority of residents have been black since whites began moving to the suburbs en masse at the end of World War II. By 1970, seven out of 10 Washingtonians were black.

The loss of blacks comes at a time when the city is experiencing a rebound, reversing a 60-year-long slide in population and adding almost 20,000 new residents between 2000 and 2010.

The demographic change is the result of almost 15 years of gentrification that has transformed large swaths of Washington, especially downtown. As housing prices soared, white professionals priced out of neighborhoods such as Dupont Circle began migrating to predominantly black areas such as Petworth and Brookland.

The city became a tougher place to live for working-class families, who had to contend with rising rents and soaring property taxes. Many of the new jobs created over the past decade have required higher education.

The phenomenon exposed the city’s fault lines along income, class and race.

“Clearly, D.C. is one of the most polarized cities, by income and education, in the country,” said Rodrick Harrison, a demographer at Howard University who spent 10 years with the Census Bureau.

“You have this unusually large college educated population. And then you have a population that is largely black, with high school degrees or less.”

Maurice Jackson, a professor of African American history at Georgetown University, said the black middle class has followed the white middle class before them, heading to the suburbs in search of more affordable housing and good schools.

“No opportunities are being created for low- and middle-income people in the city,” he said. “I drive to Georgetown ever day, and very rarely do I see African Americans on construction jobs.”

Some say the precipitous decline in the number of African Americans is alarming.

“We’re going to stop this trend — gentrification,” said D.C. Council member Marion Barry (D-Ward 8). “We can’t displace old-time Washingtonians.”

“The key to keeping this city black is jobs, jobs, jobs for black people so they can have a better quality of life in neighborhoods in the city,” he added. “I believe in integration, but I don’t believe in the apartheid we have in Ward 8. You don’t see corner stores in Ward 3. You don’t see the liquor stores.”

Barry, the four-term mayor who emerged from the civil rights movement, also faulted Congress for overturning a residency requirement for local government workers in 1988. That, he said, helped build up what he called “Ward 9,” referring to Prince George’s County.

“We can’t keep people from moving, but if we had a residency requirement, we could keep government workers from moving,” Barry said.

Anthony A. Williams said that, during his two terms as mayor, he made a concerted effort to attract new residents and businesses to pay taxes and generate revenue for a city in decline.

“When you’re the mayor, you’re not God,” Williams said. “It’s very frustrating. When you’re in public service, you’re there to promote diversity and harmony, but on the other hand, you want to help your city economically. Sometimes, they come at cross purposes.”

Williams said he believes African American culture will continue to be the dominant culture in the city. But others say they already see it slipping away.

“The Parliament song ‘Chocolate City’ pinned a label on the city,” said poet E. Ethelbert Miller, a leading figure in Washington’s African American arts community. “Well, chocolate melts.”

Miller laughed, then turned serious. “We’re seeing the eroding of a community. If you’re a black person accustomed to a way of life, that way of life is coming to an end. The city ain’t gonna be black no more. ... This is the Vincent Gray era, and that’s symbolic. The city is stuck in gray now. We’ll mourn that Chocolate City is gone, but that’s just the nature of it.”

Staff writers DeNeen Brown, Henri E. Cauvin, J. Freedom du Lac, Annie Gowen, Paul Schwartzman, Nikita Stewart and Ovetta Wiggins contributed to this report.

Seems the Washington Post is *full* of articles germane (and in refutation of) Mudede's argument:

As homicides fall in D.C., rise in Prince George’s, numbers meet in the middle
Published 4 days ago

Allison Klein
Matt Zapotosky
for The Washington Post

The District and Prince George’s County had nearly the same number of homicides in 2011, a major departure from a high 20 years ago, when the city saw 325 more slayings than the county.

It is a shift that reflects a double-digit drop in killings in the District from 2010 to 2011, with especially noticeable downward numbers in the most stubborn crime zones east of the Anacostia River. Just across the border, though, the homicide count in the neighboring communities of Prince George’s is surging, and the county as a whole saw a slight increase last year.

There were 97 slayings in Prince George’s in 2011, four more killings than in 2010. In the District, the year saw 109 homicides, down from 132 in 2010 and the lowest homicide total in the city since 1963.

“We share many of the same issues,” said D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier. “Quite a few of our victims come from Prince George’s County.”

The police department’s 7th District east of the Anacostia River — neighborhoods including Barry Farm and Congress Heights — saw its annual homicide count drop 55 percent, with 24 fewer killings in 2011. Neighborhoods across the border in Prince George’s 4th District — including Hillcrest Heights and Oxon Hill-Glassmanor — saw their count more than double, up by 21 slayings.

Law enforcement officials said the trend along Prince George’s border reflects problems that migrated along with those who left the District for inside-the Beltway county neighborhoods, including issues surrounding poverty and long-simmering neighborhood disputes.

Some D.C. residents who still see frequent violence in their neighborhoods are weary, and say there’s not much to celebrate in the city’s declining homicide numbers.

“I’m slow to get to excited,” said the Rev. Donald Isaac, executive director of the East of the River Clergy, Police, Community Partnership. “As soon as you begin to celebrate, it can reverse so quickly.”

Prince George’s Police Chief Mark Magaw said crime has long run “back and forth” between D.C. and Prince George’s, and he has pushed this year for increased cooperation between the two police departments.

“It’s one big community now,” he said. “No longer do we have the luxury of saying, ‘We only have to worry up to Southern Avenue,’ ” one of the borders between the city and county.

Though killings in both the District and Prince George’s averaged about two per week during 2011, overall violent crime in the city fell by 10 percent and in the county by 12 percent.

But the city had a 6 percent jump in property crime, largely due to a growing problem with thieves snatching smartphones, computer tablets and other electronic devices from people and cars.

“Snatching electronics is the battle of the century,” Lanier said. “It’s the single biggest problem I have in term of numbers.”

Aiming for under 100

Mayor Vincent C. Gray (D) said that the decline in homicides in D.C. is encouraging and that the city should work to try to get to fewer than 100 slayings in 2012.

“When people see crime going down like this, especially homicides, they are going to feel safer,” Gray said. “My sense is that people do feel safer. On the other hand, when you still see north of 100 homicides in the city, even though it’s a stark reduction, people are going to continue to be concerned about it. Some additional vigilance is going to serve you well, too.”

Killings in the District have fallen rapidly in recent years, with 2011 bringing the lowest number of slayings in nearly 50 years.

“When I started here in 1990, the two things that used to really bother me was that we were known as the murder capital of the world and the city of unsolved homicides,” Lanier said. “Our detectives and our police officers have done an amazing job turning that around. We are no longer either one of those things.”

Homicides in Prince George’s have been generally trending downward as well, though at a slower pace.

The rest of the region’s suburbs have far fewer homicides than D.C. and Prince George’s, with most counties recording 2011 homicide numbers roughly unchanged from the prior year. Fairfax County was an exception, with a decrease from 16 to 8.

Though Montgomery County had just 16 homicides in 2011, in March it saw one of the highest-profile murders in the region last year, when Brittany Norwood, an employee at a Bethesda Lululemon yoga store, fatally bludgeoned and stabbed her co-worker, Jayna Murray.

And the wealthier neighborhoods of Northwest D.C., where homicide are rare, three killings drew wide attention: a teen was shot on a busy street in Georgetown on Halloween night ; socialite Viola Drath was killed in her Georgetown rowhouse in August, allegedly by her husband; and in November a man was gunned down outside a nightclub in Dupont Circle.

The Northeast quadrant of the city, covered by the 4th and 5th Districts, ended the year with a combined eight more killings than in 2010.

Area crime watchers say they’ve seen violence steadily shift from D.C. into Prince George’s.

The migration of many of the District’s poorer residents to inside-the-Beltway communities in Prince George’s has been happening for years, fueled by the District tearing down some public housing, said former D.C. police chief Isaac Fulwood Jr., who led the department in the early 1990s, when the city had nearly 500 homicides a year.

That shift has had lasting effects, he said.

“People from D.C. that had to move tended to move to Prince George’s County, and they took with them the things that poverty brings: Lack of access to everything,” said Fulwood, who is now chairman of the U.S. Parole Commission.

The Prince George’s police department, which has more than 2,000 fewer officers than in D.C., were left to deal with neighborhood disputes many people brought with them, as well as new beefs created in the large apartment complexes in Prince George’s.

“Alabama Avenue, Stanton Road subsidized housing, all of that is gone,” Prince George’s Deputy Chief Craig Howard said. “Now when you ride through those areas, there are townhouses, single-family homes.”

Last year’s killings in Prince George’s did not seem to follow any common thread, officials said. Young men and women sometimes killed one another petty disputes.

The majority of the killings in Prince George’s happen inside the Beltway, a more urban setting than the rest of the county. Because Prince George’s has a larger overall population than the District, its homicide rate was lower than the city’s, with about 11 killings per 100,000 residents, compared with about 17 per 100,000 residents in D.C.

Closing cases

Across the nation during the first half of last year, the murder count increased by about 1 percent for cities the size of D.C, and remained the same for counties such as Prince George’s, according to FBI crime statistics.

Lanier, who hoped to have fewer than 100 homicides in the District in 2011, said she remains frustrated by the numbers. “We’re not where we need to be until we have less than 50,” she said.

The Washington Post’s homicide count includes criminal killings within the borders of the city or the county, but does not include killings that officials have ruled justified. Prince George’s homicide numbers last year included one killing investigated by Laurel police and one on the Bowie State University campus.

Lanier said the District had fewer gang-related homicides than in prior years. Most killings happened amid personal disputes, often stemming from squabbles at nightclubs where people had been drinking, she said.

She added that her department’s homicide closure rate is about 94 percent, which sends a message to the criminals.

“Word travels pretty quickly when a homicide happens and an arrest is made,” Lanier said. “Your risk of being caught is pretty high if you commit a homicide in D.C.”

Prince George’s police’s homicide closure rate was 63 percent last year, a slight increase over 2010.

In Prince George’s,16 people were killed in January, including a teenager who used to cook eggs for his 3-year-old brother, an ice cream truck driver and a University of Maryland student who tutored athletes. But by year’s end, overall crime had dropped compared with 2010, with violent crime down about 12 percent and property crime down about 10 percent.

Lanier’s biggest success is in the 7th District, which has regularly led the city in killings and some other crimes. In 1993, the 7th District alone had 133 homicides. Last year it had 20.

“A lot of it is the officers being out there, being visible,” 7th District Commander Joel Maupin said. He said officers continue to take guns off the streets, and often blanket neighborhoods with extra patrols when they get a tip that violence might be coming.

It is essential, he said, to make arrests in crimes such as robberies and burglaries because it prevents future violence.

“Removing these individuals from the streets and doing it quickly reduces crime,” Maupin said.

Isaac, the clergyman who works in the same neighborhoods as Maupin, said his group visits every family that loses someone to violence, offering burial support, grief counseling and other services.

“Even if you have one homicide a month, it’s impacting out there,” Isaac said.

Staff writer Mike DeBonis contributed to this report.