Richard Socarides thinks he should and thinks he will. Andrew Sullivan says, "It won't happen."

I'm going to go an inch farther (further?) than Andrew and say that not only don't I think it will happen, I don't think it should happen.

While national polls show a slim majority of Americans now support marriage equality, supporters of marriage equality aren't evenly distributed throughout all 50 states. They're over-represented in populous blue states that Obama is going to carry, under-represented in purple states that he needs to carry, and thin in the ground in red states that he has no hope of carrying. Electoral College Goddam. And maybe I'm a pessimist... but... I don't think Obama endorsing marriage equality would convince any Republicans who support marriage equality (all six of them) to vote for him, I don't think it by itself would convince independents to vote for him, and I think it would convince some conservative Democrats to vote against him.

Don't get me wrong: I want to see Obama evolve devolve on marriage equality. I want see him to return to his circa-1996 position on marriage equality. And I want to see a pro-marriage-equality president in the White House. But I think our best chance of seeing a pro-marriage-equality president in the White House is to re-elect the president we've got now.

Then we start raising holy evolutionary hell on January 21, 2013.