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Monday, December 5, 2011

The Next Frontier

Posted by on Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 8:21 AM

After capitalism came for its muscles, it's now coming for its stomachs.

Over the past decade six of the world’s ten fastest-growing countries were African. In eight of the past ten years, Africa has grown faster than East Asia, including Japan. Even allowing for the knock-on effect of the northern hemisphere’s slowdown, the IMF expects Africa to grow by 6% this year and nearly 6% in 2012, about the same as Asia.

The commodities boom is partly responsible.


By the way, the richest black person in the world is not Oprah Winfrey but Aliko Dangote, "the Nigerian cement king."

 

Comments (9) RSS

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lark 1
Good Morning Charles,
I, too am charmed that the continent of Africa is showing signs of modest economic growth:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1…

I am a fan of Zambien Dambisa Moyo, the Harvard-educated, London-based economic writer (she wrote & I read "Dead Aid"). I agree with her that foreign aid to the continent must be diminished and eventually be eliminated for it "grow". Africa has been shackled to Aid for too long. I believe another reason for its growth is China. It is filling a vacuum left by Europe and the USA.

There is much more to this and much more remains to be done (autocrats like Mugabe need to leave for starters). However, I am glad to read that there are signs of optimism in Africa.
Posted by lark on December 5, 2011 at 8:36 AM
Rotten666 2
@1 The opinion that aid to Africa needs to end is not a popular one. People get unhinged whenever it' suggested. Paul Theroux talked about this in Dark Star Safari and a lot of muckety mucks racked him over the coals for it.

The Amazon reviews for the book are pretty funny, or sad, depends on you point of view.
Posted by Rotten666 on December 5, 2011 at 8:46 AM
Fnarf 3
@2, what "mucky-mucks"? The consensus is growing that aid to Africa needs to be overhauled (not eliminated) so that it fosters growth instead of stifling it. Even Bono, who has been a lifelong cheerleader for the most damaging practices (chief among them his very celebrity), which have caused the deaths of countless people, is starting to sound chastened and realistic, talking about development instead of pure handouts (which are so easy to manipulate).

Anyone attacking Theroux for "Dark Star Safari" can't possibly have read it, unless perhaps they are Malawian (Malawi comes off pretty bad). I thought it was an intensely real and valuable book, not about aid entirely but very affectingly so in places. His point about aid encampments where rich white aid workers drive around in Range Rovers and hide behind the walls of their internet-and-electricity-fed compounds, has been echoed by many other writers (like Linda Polman).

The biggest challenge for Africa now is to reanimate the corpse of DR Congo. Elections are a start, but when the leader is named "Kabila" one suspects that nothing much has really changed. but keeping that war from starting up in earnest again is essential to the progress of the entire continent. Unfortunately America's biggest voice in the region now is lunatic Evangelical Christians, who are supporting madness like the Lord's Resistance Army and various anti-gay movements.
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on December 5, 2011 at 9:17 AM
Rotten666 4
@3 the consensus is growing, but this was not a popular opinion even a decade ago, when the book was first published.

And yes, I assume that most of the people that gave the book a shitty review on Amazon did not in fact read the book, because people are like that.
Posted by Rotten666 on December 5, 2011 at 9:24 AM
Tingleyfeeln 5
I wonder if Aliko Dangote is the father of that Nigerian prince I keep hearing about?
Posted by Tingleyfeeln on December 5, 2011 at 9:40 AM
Tingleyfeeln 6
But seriously, I don't think that aid needs to be cut off, but our aid needs to be worth it. There should be no more government aid for any nations (African or otherwise) that do not have sufficent respect for human rights. If birth control is illegal in a country, fuck 'em! Brutal dictator still ruling your country? Sorry to the general population, but our aid will only keep him oppressing the citizenry longer.
I favor putting strings on our aid more than I favor cutting them off completely. I also favor letting these nations (I'm looking at you, Somolia) figure their problems out on their own.
Posted by Tingleyfeeln on December 5, 2011 at 9:47 AM
Rotten666 7
@6 Yeah, it seems pretty simple, right?
Posted by Rotten666 on December 5, 2011 at 9:49 AM
Fnarf 8
@6, that's not the problem with aid. The problem with aid is when it is used by governments to move populations out of areas they want freed up and into holding areas. Governments do this all the time -- you allow the aid people in only to specified areas, where you want starving people to migrate so that you can have the land for yourself. The people of Ethiopia have been shuttled back and forth across the country this way several times.

The problem is aid that only comes to areas in spectacular crises, so that manufacturing a spectactular crisis is the only way to get it -- remember the epidemic of people having their arms hacked off in Sierra Leone a few years ago? That was done to bring aid. It worked -- aid came.

The problem with aid is that it is usually taken immediately by soldiers, who use it for themselves and sell the remainder in the market to the people who were supposed to be receiving it in the first place. Aid agencies go along with this because they measure themselves by how much they give out, not whether it was used for anything good.

The problem with aid is the aid agencies who isolate themselves from the countries they serve, and maintain a Western standard of living within their compounds while paternalistically doling out sacks of flour without.

The problem with aid is the devastation it brings to local economies, supplanting struggling businesses with free goods they can never compete with, thus converting local enterprise into dependency.

The problem with aid is that in more developed areas it is all immediately siphoned off by government officials, never to be seen again. Money is taxed ad hoc thirty different times until it disappears; projects never buy the equipment they need, or if they do it rusts in the rain; the rebar gets stolen and sold for scrap; offices are staffed until eternity, whether the project is still going or not.

The kind of thing you mention doesn't really have anything to do with aid. Human rights are cheap when your country is on the brink, or has fallen over it.
More...
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on December 5, 2011 at 10:13 AM
lark 9
This is a good discussion. All have points. I haven't read "Dark Star" but I've read Theroux regarding this issue. I shall read it. I've read Nicholas Eberstadt and others regarding the topic of foreign aid and Africa as well. So, there is a growing body of work of detractors on the benefit of aid to Africa.

Fnarf, you're spot on. The real test regarding whether aid or less aid will work is whether or not "dead" countries like Somalia & DRC can recover in a generation. We'll see.
Posted by lark on December 5, 2011 at 1:34 PM

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