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Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Thailand Flood Update

Posted by on Tue, Nov 15, 2011 at 12:20 PM

The economic effects are starting to show, as Japanese companies plan to pull up stakes and invest in factories in Indonesia and Vietnam instead.

“Executives recognize the concentration risk after the floods,” said Takahiro Sekido, chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Tokyo. “The recent trend of accelerating investment into Thailand will cool despite the fact that Thailand was such an ideal destination.”

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has proposed spending 130 billion baht ($4.2 billion) on reconstruction and steps to prevent future floods. She seeks to reassure investors that Thailand remains a safe place for business, as companies including Pioneer Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. scrapped profit forecasts after the floods shut factories.

The disaster has rippled through the supply chains of Japanese auto and electronics makers, as parts shortages affected operations across the globe.

Meanwhile, UNICEF and the World Health Organization are bracing for outbreaks of disease, as the streets and miles-long pools of water are full of garbage, rotting animal carcases, and feces.

And after the jump, an update from our friend in Bangkok.

* * *

Hi Brendan,

Thanks for passing the info on. It is too weird of a story to really get play. A slow-motion disaster does not fit in any news cycle.

As to your question about diseases, my sources in the WHO are freaked out, but everyone else is just trying to prevent the poor and middle-class neighborhoods from starving. We have hundreds of thousands of people trapped in the 2nd and 3rd stories of their houses, waiting for supply trucks which are often blocked by wreckage/garbage/parked cars from arriving.

It's hard to imagine any other country (Japan, maybe?) where people would really, mostly refrain from looting—although there has been some guerilla knocking-over of the 120 cm high and 15.5 km long wall, which is keeping Central Bangkok and ritzy neighborhoods dry.

Things are improving, but just not fast enough. A big worry is that the water will not recede appreciably when the February rains come.

 

Comments (8) RSS

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Posted by Vince on November 15, 2011 at 12:27 PM
sikandro 2
February rains? Isn't February when it's turning from cold to hot season?
Posted by sikandro on November 15, 2011 at 1:06 PM
Fifty-Two-Eighty 3
@2: It's Thailand. They only have two seasons: Wet and wetter.
Posted by Fifty-Two-Eighty http://www.nra.org on November 15, 2011 at 1:10 PM
SPG 4
Business clustering sounded awesome at first, as did "just in time" delivery with slashing warehousing costs. The only catch they soon found out with Just in Time was that the smallest disruption like a railroad line being shut down for a couple days after an accident could ripple through and shut down an entire industry.
BTW, Have you looked at prices for bare Hard Drives recently? 200% to 300% of what they cost this summer.
Posted by SPG on November 15, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Fnarf 5
@4, gee, when I pointed that out about the hard drives in an earlier thread I got jumped all over because I was "only concerned about my own computers" and "didn't care about poor farmers". Because, you know, no one in Thailand wants a modern life; they all want to be subsistence farmers forever, toting those buckets of shit across the rice paddies.

Now you. How insensitive!
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on November 15, 2011 at 2:57 PM
sikandro 6
@3, There are three seasons: hot, rainy, cold. Hot season is basically March-May/June, when rainy season picks up. It really doesn't rain that much March-May.
Posted by sikandro on November 15, 2011 at 3:28 PM
treacle 7
Oh, like Indonesia and Vietnam won't have some crazy, economy-debilitating weather within the next 5 years. ..Or for that matter, that America, or Europe, or Asia won't have some economy-debilitating weather within the next 5 years themselves. Or within the next 10 years. In either case, critically soon.

So, let's review real quick:

. Major environmental instabilities. ..
. Majority of populations in 1st & 2nd world industrial states getting old, and barely replacing themselves.. .
. Majority of populations in 3rd world states experiencing their baby boom 20s now. . .. .
. Communications technologies ( cell, twitter, media, day-trading, hacking, encryption ) changing the political playing field.. .
. Major global economic instabilities in many markets...

Hm.

And the lynchpin of it all... ..is the very mechanism of the economy itself... Hm.
Posted by treacle on November 15, 2011 at 7:20 PM
Prairie Dog 8
SPG @ # 4: Right on all fronts! This insane "Just In Time" business idea is theoretically a good idea but has't worked out in the real world. Any minor disruption in the supply chain leads to major issues for the businesses who decided to adopt this unsustainable idea. Unfortunately, that's pretty much all businesses these days. So, a strike by UPS workers, a flood in a tropical country that floods often, or any other serious weather event anywhere can cause industry world-wide to begin to have problems within days. The global economy has no saftey margin due to these very "efficient" processes. We are standing on the edge of a razor blade economically to insure efficiency.

As far as prices on hard drives, you are very correct as well. I was in the market for two 1-1.5 Terrabyte drives for my data backup solution. After looking at prices Monday, I'll be limping along with my currently crowded solution for the foreseeable future. Thanks to "efficiency" I can't even afford to upgrade the drives in my RAID.
Posted by Prairie Dog on November 16, 2011 at 12:30 AM

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