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Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Election 2011: Winners and Losers

Posted by on Wed, Nov 9, 2011 at 1:24 PM

***THE WINNERS***

Cathy Allen: The successful political consultant behind Republican Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign in Alaska managed to deliver another win for city council incumbent Jean Godden. Godden's up by eight points. While the money helped—Godden outspent Bobby Forch nearly two to one—Allen's willingness to run a deceptive, last minute hit piece on Forch all while going on TV and condemning sleazy ads like the one she ran was good move. So Allen may be unscrupulous, but she's a winner.

Light Rail: It's not so much that Tim Eyman's anti-tolling, anti-light rail initiative appears to be failing. (As of last night's returns, it was behind by only three points; however, massive King County is lagging in returns, has reported only about half the votes of its expected turnout, and is rejecting Eyman's measure by a 20-point margin. That is to say, I-1125's loss will likely continue to grow as King County becomes a larger share of the state's vote totals.) No, what's great was the rallying of local elected officials, Microsoft, Bill Gates, and other big-money backers who raised $2.5 million and refused to let Eyman surreptitiously kill public transit.

Schools: The city's Families and Education Levy passed with an 18-point spread, both a win for Mayor Mike McGinn and mayoral rival Council Member Tim Burgess. Only right-wing nutters and John Carlson were opposed.

Marty McLaren: Money doesn't always steal the day. McLaren, who is running for Seattle School Board in district 6, was outspent but was leading incumbent Steve Sundquist in last night's first batch of returns. McLaren campaigned hard and articulated her platform well. The sliver lining: A solid candidate with Cliff Mass backing a well-defined message can trump incumbent cash (assuming her lead holds). Which brings us to...

Big Money: It's such an old trope that to point it out again seems banal—and some insidery insiders love to blame election outcomes largely on other factors (the consultant, the advertising, the message, the debate performance). You know, they blame it on the things that insidery insiders have some control over. But last night's election was won, by and large, by large money. Costco's $22 million to privatize liquor retail sales did something that almost never happens: It turned an initiative that was slowly tanking, slipping from 50 percent in August to 46 percent by September, and delivering 59 percent support in last night's first batch of returns (only six weeks later).

That shift wasn't just messaging or smart consultants. A drunk teenager could commission basic message polling and hire consultants to built TV spots based on the results of those polls. That pendulum shift coincided with a deluge of expensive TV ads. It didn't help that the dishonest shills for the liquor industry called Protect Our Communities were caught being such dishonest shills for the liquor industry. But, again, that's not why the shills lost: With only $11 million from the liquor industry, they were just out gunned in the arm-wrestling match with Costco. Meanwhile: In the clashes of Initiatives 1125 (apparently defeated as of last night's returns) and 1163 (easily passing), again, the winning sides were the sides with more cash. In Seattle City Council races, all the incumbents won—with bank accounts stuffed with contributions from people affiliated with the companies and downtown interests that do business in front of the council. Most council members had enough money to deter any solid opposition. To be fair, money didn't always prevail, exactly. For example, the proposition to fund transportation improvements with $60 car tabs went down 60-40, even though the pro-campaign had more than four times more money ($112,000 to $25,000). In that case, the messaging in favor of Prop 1 was either inscrutably complicated or dubiously vague; and here's where money comes back into play: It's hard to imagine any campaign convincing voters to pass a regressive, expensive fee for a package so nebulous.

TV Stations and Cable: A huge chunk of that dough went into television, according to records at the Washington State Public Disclosure Commission. Altogether, the six statewide campaigns—for and against three initiatives—spent a total of $33 million. Of that, at least $23 million was spent on TV or other media (some media are specified, mostly as TV, and some is ambiguous). The liquor campaigns alone spent $27 million on their campaigns, largely on media buys. Think of Washington's elections as a Comcast charity event.

***THE LOSERS***

Kemper Freeman: Mr. Bellevue Square, if I understand his long-range motive, wants to sever Seattle from the growing suburban eastdside so that he will own the new central business district of the region. That means endowing the driving that clogs the two cross-lake freeway corridors and killing the light rail line that may some day glide through congestion. He failed last night, hard. His attempts to oust two-pro-light-rail incumbents from the Bellevue City Council failed. His $1 million backing Eyman's initiative to block rail from crossing the bridge also failed. (At least this time. I fear this man is like a hornet's nest in defeat.)

Most of the School Board Challengers: Despite public discontent with a $1.8 million dollar alleged fraud scandal and the impractical shuttering of public schools—all under the tenure of the existing school board—three challengers never managed to forge their scattered messages into barbs. As mentioned above, McLaren is the only challenger leading, and Sharon Peaslee—who is trailing incumbent Peter Maier by four points—could potentially rely on the progressive leanings of later voters to pull her through. But that's unlikely.

City Council Member Tom Rasmussen: No incumbent had more money than Rasmussen, with $310,000 raised to deter serious challengers. And nobody had a less serious challenger than Rasmussen: Dale Pusey, a man with a criminal record and zero qualifications for office—and outspent roughly 300-to-one. Still, Pusey managed to earn 26 percent of the vote. Even real campaigns—such as challenges by Dian Ferguson and Brad Meacham—only got nine to eleven more points than Pusey. Rasmussen may have had enough money to scare off a real challenger, but he still managed to scare off quarter of voters willing to vote for anyone but him.

Richard Mitchell: Yes, he was running in an Eastside District; and yes, he's a die-hard Democrat up against a Republican incumbent; and yes, politics is about creative messaging. But Mitchell's attacks on incumbent Jane Hague—who he had a good shot of beating, if primary results were an indicator—bordered on the absurd. Of note: a mailer that claimed Hague didn't represent conservative values? Sent by the Democrat? He's losing by an insurmountable eight points.

 

Comments (9) RSS

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Will in Seattle 1
I will wait for the Saturday numbers, thanks.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 9, 2011 at 1:32 PM
2
If you are just twigging to the fact that Cathy Allen will resort to almost anything to win, you haven't been paying attention for the past 20 years. It's kind of her style dating back to a notorious hit piece against Sam Smith in his last election that he lost to Sherry Harris.

The man was sick in the hospital and didn't make a single public appearance between the September primary and the November election. Just before election day, Allen put out a very harsh piece that had 4-5 quotes about Smith, each next to a smaller and smaller headshot of the old man. The "Vanishing Sam" hit piece got a lot of negative reactions, but Harris won and became the first one-term African-American lesbian to hold and lose office.

...Kee-rist I've been involved too long in Seattle politics.
Posted by Smartypants on November 9, 2011 at 1:39 PM
SchmuckyTheCat 3
The pro-side of the liquor initiative spent $13Mil of the $22Mil Costco gave them. They have plenty left over. If the anti-side spent $11Mil, that is not an uneven match you can blame on money. I, personally, was more bombarded with anti-ads.

I voted against Prop 1 because I don't want a $60 fee every year just to posses the POS I drive around. I'd be all for a local city gas tax though. I'd gladly pay a 10¢ per gallon gas tax, and ironically on a yearly basis my POS gas guzzler would probably have me paying more than $60. It's not about the money, it's about the annoyance of a huge fee just for owning a car. Actually, the entire state should just tax gas at the sales tax rate and give it to cities.
Posted by SchmuckyTheCat on November 9, 2011 at 2:05 PM
4
So money was clearly the winner (1183) except when it wasn't (1125).

That's political insight you can't get anywhere else.

Posted by bigyaz on November 9, 2011 at 2:12 PM
Joe Szilagyi 5
Suggestion for a big (not Slog, but actual article article) follow up on Kemper and I-1125:

Spell out in plain language exactly what his remaining legal and legislative options are for keeping light rail away from his mall. As far as I understand it, the Bellevue council has no power to stop it at this point, and is just finalizing specifics. The plan is already approved by voters outright, and the financing plan is now approved by voters (again). So, with Balducci turning her back on him, there isn't much that can happen from the local city level.

Kemper appears to have no clout with Dow and the County council, so that's out. The state already is/has to allow link on the I-90 corridor because of the various voting we've already done.

By the time the 2012 election cycle and another possible million-dollar outlay comes up, Kemper would be having to craft an initiative or referendum against ever more specific and precise areas of attack--sort of how the anti-abortion crowd in Roe V Wade can only really do unlikely broad strokes maneuvers (the now-failed Mississippi ballot measure) or bizarre little procedural tricks (sanitation policy changes or whatever they tried in Kansas this year). What could he initiative against? Anything that overtly or indirectly says "NO LIGHT RAIL" will fail hard.

Lawsuits over the light rail now? Where and how?

Anyway, could be a good article for a current state-of-the-I90-war.
Posted by Joe Szilagyi http://www.joeszilagyi.com on November 9, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Will in Seattle 6
@2 was correct.

I vote we name the Light Rail line to Bellevue the Kemper line.

Just to stick it to him.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 9, 2011 at 2:57 PM
Lurleen 7
Another loser: Anti-gay Rep Mike Hope (R-Lake Stevens) lost his bid to unseat Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon (D). This is a blow to Rob McKenna, who made a flourish on his own campaign sites about endorsing Hope. Now McKena has no power broker in Sno. Co. to help him wrangle votes in 2012. Heh. ;)
Posted by Lurleen on November 9, 2011 at 3:26 PM
8
I keep reading about the evils of "big money" and how "big money" has bought our election process. But, it's always in reference to Costco and I-1183.
No one is talking about how one of the largest Unions in the State - SEIU - basically bought the passage of I-1163. Even The Stranger fell for it's feel-good wording and encouraged their readers to vote for it. 1163 is bad legistlation. The families of the disabled (myself included) will suffer, finding a caregiver will be more complicated and cumbersome (isn't parenting a disabled child complicated and cumbersome enough?) and the SEIU will rake in the dough so they can provide unnecessary training that caregivers have said doesn't help them. And, how did it happen? The SEIU poured lots of money into the campaign. Big money is big money no matter where it comes from.
Posted by tacomagirl on November 9, 2011 at 4:31 PM
9
SEIU sponsored1163 is a terrible trick that the Stranger fell for indeed, as well as the rest of ignorant voters. Unions are just as bad as corporation if not even worse. Haven't we learned for the police union?! The last time SEIU sponsored an initiative and it passed, all family caregivers were forced to join this union, which meant accepting pay cuts, union dues deduction, and changing to a crappy health insurance. Some were even disqualified to take care of their family members... Now it will be even more torture for families. I feel bad for all of the disabled folks, especially children and elderly who will lose their care from a loved one.
Posted by mikey on November 9, 2011 at 7:38 PM

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