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Monday, October 31, 2011

Politics New Washington Poll: Two Initiatives In Trouble, McKenna Still Beating Inslee, Obama Strong, Gay Marriage Approved... and More!

Posted by Eli Sanders on Mon, Oct 31, 2011 at 8:54 AM

There's a new Washington Poll out this morning. It surveyed 938 registered voters over the phone between Oct. 10 and Oct. 30, and offers a lot to chew on.

Let's look at the topline results first:

Initiative 1183, liquor privatization: Yes 50.3, No 42.8

(Quick takeaway: That's barely the 50 percent needed to pass, and over 9 percent of that "yes" vote is soft, meaning voters told pollsters their minds could change.)

Initiative 1125, new rules for tolling and no light rail across I-90: Yes 41.4, No 40.0

(Quick takeaway: That's nine points below the 50 percent needed to pass. But, 18.7 percent of voters are still undecided. It all comes down to how much information voters have about this sneaky measure—later poll respondents, who likely had more information, opposed it in greater numbers.)

2012 Governor: Inslee 38.4, McKenna 44.9

(Quick takeaway: Ouch.)

Obama vs. Perry: Obama 54, Perry 40.7

Obama vs. Romney: Obama 50.2, Romney 40.7

(Quick takeaway: We basically knew that already.)

If the state legislature votes to allow gay marriage next year, and the issue comes before you in a referendum, would you approve or reject this new law? Approve 55, Reject 38

(Quick takeaway: Time to get that bill passed.)

As I said, a lot to chew on in the details, but there's the topline results. We'll come back later this morning with more analysis of what this means for the upcoming election and beyond.

Comments (18) RSS

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50 percent needed to pass? Are you new?

Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 31, 2011 at 9:14 AM

@1: An initiative needs 50 percent to pass. That's not new.

Posted by Eli Sanders

on October 31, 2011 at 9:18 AM

@2

You're killing me here dude. Fifty percent of what?

Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 31, 2011 at 9:25 AM

@3: Uh... the vote.

Posted by Eli Sanders

on October 31, 2011 at 9:29 AM

Last 3 mails I've gotten from the Inslee campaign don't list his positions on anything (besides wanting to be Governor).

He might want to work on that.

Posted by sloegin on October 31, 2011 at 9:32 AM

It also needs 50% not to pass.

Posted by DOUG.

on October 31, 2011 at 9:32 AM

@4

"The vote"? What does "the vote" consist of? All ballots returned? Or all votes cast for that ballot line? Are you saying ballots returned with no vote cast for an initiative count towards the total votes needed to reach 50%? Since when?

Every election return I've ever seen just tallies up the yes and the no votes and declares the one with the larger number the winner. Approve votes just need to be greater than rejected votes.

Citation please.

Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 31, 2011 at 9:35 AM

@6

Thank you. This guy has been covering these elections for years and still doesn't get how they work.

Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 31, 2011 at 9:36 AM

@6: Yeah, ok, 50 percent plus one vote needed to pass.

Posted by Eli Sanders

on October 31, 2011 at 9:43 AM

@9

Eli.

If 100,000 votes are cast, and 49% are Approve and 41% are reject, and 8% are undecided -- they leave it blank and only vote for President or something -- then Approve gets 49,000 votes and reject gets 41,000. That means Approve got 54% of the votes that were cast for that measure. Even though it got less than 50% of the total ballots returned. But total ballots returned isn't counted against each ballot item. Just votes cast for that ballot line.

Of course, undecideds usually break for "no" and for incumbent candidates, but 50.3 vs 42.8 is a big margin to overcome. That undecided group would really have to firm up and go for reject. In reality, most of them will skip the question, and some of them will vote approve. So 50.3/42.8, if the election were held today and the undecideds don't skew too far from conventional wisdom, means it will pass.

Have you talked to Goldy about this? He took math.

Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn on October 31, 2011 at 9:55 AM

perhaps The Stranger should try to do something about Jay Inslee’s poor polling ...maybe interview him, maybe talk about him a bit?
4 years of McKenna as Gov will make the tunnel and tolling debacles look like nothing .. get it going Stranger folks, The Seattle Times isn’t going to do it

Posted by olive oyl on October 31, 2011 at 10:06 AM

"Son origine remonte au bintel brief (littéralement, "paquet de lettres") du Jewish Forward, un périodique new-yorkais en langue yiddish du début du XXe siècle. "
I'm really glad I learned "new-yorkais" along with the history of sex advice coming from the newspapers of "les juifs".

Posted by erin on October 31, 2011 at 10:14 AM

@10, your name sounds like the mutterings of paw rugg on 'hillbilly bears'.

Posted by scary tyler moore

on October 31, 2011 at 10:35 AM

I hate to admit it, but the approve/disapprove numbers for health care reform suggest McKenna's decision to join the lawsuit against it was good politics.

Posted by Orv on October 31, 2011 at 10:49 AM

I'm not sure why McKenna comes off as an appealing moderate to most people, but he does. It's a bit early to take him down as the typical Republican he is, but I agree with @11 that Democrats and liberals should be talking up Inslee. Though, I guess one upside of McKenna winning is that the Occupy crowds (or the protests in that vein we have a year or two from now) would get a lot more attendance.

Posted by Cascadian on October 31, 2011 at 11:04 AM

@11 and 15) We've been trying to sit down with Inslee--inviting him for an interview with our editorial board--but so far he's not coming to the table. It would be great to go in depth on state issues with him... the way McKenna actually has been available to sit down with reporters. It's hard to get behind a candidate you can't talk to.

Posted by Dominic Holden on October 31, 2011 at 11:10 AM

Eli@9: That's not exactly my point. Your observation of the 1183 numbers seems to imply that it may not pass because the YES's have barely over 50% of the vote, ignoring the fact the NO's have only 43%. NO has a long way to get to 50%... plus one.

Posted by DOUG.

on October 31, 2011 at 11:54 AM

I know math is hard, but shit, Eli, get it together.

In a poll, it is easy for both the yes and no side to have significantly below 50%, especially if you have a lot of undecideds. But when the ballots are actually cast, the undecideds are no longer relevant. Only the actual votes are relevant. If Yes gets more than No, then Yes wins, even if it was only polling at 35% previously.

Thus, Initiative 1125 is extremely close and could go either way, but Yes is fractionally ahead right now. Interestingly, that means nearly 20% are undecided, which is huge this close to the election. Typically, undecideds tend to split fairly evenly, with slightly more trending to no on initiatives. So based on this poll, it is likely to pass or not on a razor thin margin.

Posted by Reverse Polarity on October 31, 2011 at 12:26 PM