Slog
News & ArtsThursday, October 20, 2011
2012 Cain Vs. Obama
Posted by Charles Mudede on Thu, Oct 20, 2011 at 1:53 PM
- Christopher Halloran / Shutterstock.com
- If Obama looks unbeatable, Cain's chances at being the nominee improve.
I want to look at three kinds of interactions or behaviors in the animal kingdom. There is selfishness (an individual promotes only his/her own interests); there is altruism (an individual promotes, with a cost, the interests of another individual), and spite (an individual harms, with a cost, another person). I read somewhere that you can find examples of selfish and altruistic interactions in all animals. Spite, on the other hand, can only found in the human animal. I bring this up because Herman Cain. My theory: His chances of winning the GOP nomination depend on how his party reads Obama's chances of winning reelection. If Obama looks unbeatable, Cain's chances of winning the nomination dramatically improve. And it is more and more looking like Obama is unbeatable.
Yet when all adults are asked about hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Obama and Romney run almost even, with Obama leading 48 to 45 percent. Obama holds a narrow edge over Cain, 49 percent to 43 percent. He leads Perry, 51 percent to 42 percent.The economy did not crash. The dip is becoming less likely. Pirates are dead. Osama is dead. Gaddafi is dead. Will people be willing to change a situation that is not desperate? Probably not. Instead of putting up a good fight, the GOP turns to spite. It elects crazy Cain to run against Obama. Why is this spiteful? It's saying, at a great political cost: You are nothing but a black man to us. That's what we think of you. Giving you a white man would be too good for you. We give you you, you black man.
2
'Why is this spiteful? It's saying, at a great political cost: You are nothing but a black man to us'
..baby ..when you do connect , you hit it out the park.
..baby ..when you do connect , you hit it out the park.
3
narrow polls this far from the election. obama looks very beatable. so does your idea hold up?
also the theory of altruism or spite usually just collapsed into selfishness. (dawkins)
cmon charles
if they wanted to spite they would give us the woman of course
also the theory of altruism or spite usually just collapsed into selfishness. (dawkins)
cmon charles
if they wanted to spite they would give us the woman of course
5
This is the sort of thing that pushed me into the "keep Charles around" column on that binding Slog poll the other day. ;)
8
Obama is not just a black man to the racists among Republicans; he is an uppity black man. He is well spoken, well educated, and sips lattes. Oh yeah, and he’s black.
I know racist people who have said racist things about Obama but who think Cain is alright. It makes me cringe to think that this is because Cain is seen as less of a threat – as though ‘he might be black but at least the pizza guy who discredits American racism knows his place.’
I know racist people who have said racist things about Obama but who think Cain is alright. It makes me cringe to think that this is because Cain is seen as less of a threat – as though ‘he might be black but at least the pizza guy who discredits American racism knows his place.’
9
Not a single vote anywhere has been cast in the 2012 election and still people are pulling shit out of their asses trying to make election predictions over a year out.
Nothing else to report on?
Nothing else to report on?
10
During the Nevada GOP debate I thought for a brief second Cain was going to say "the difference between me and President Obama is we are as different as black and white....". He stopped himself, but I think he could have made a good chuckle out of it.
Cain is so out of his league (one interview it was clear he didn't know why "1967" is a important year with Israel/Palestine) but I do kind of like him in the debates.
Cain is so out of his league (one interview it was clear he didn't know why "1967" is a important year with Israel/Palestine) but I do kind of like him in the debates.
11
I would hardly say that Obama looks unbeatable. I acknowledge that he has done some really positive things while in office and have been very patient with him while he fails to do really great things because I know he's just one man and needs to pace himself to have a shot at reelection (so that he can HOPEfully do great things in his second term)...and I will surely vote to reelect him...
BUT...
This country is still a total mess (not his fault, I know) and his approval ratings aren't great (somewhere between 39-47%, depending on who you believe). When things aren't going well, folks tend to make some really crazy decisions (TWO terms for W?!!! WTH?!) so it wouldn't surprise me in the least if greater than half of America (or whatever the electoral college needs anyway) voted in a pizza man or space god. I REALLY hope Cain wins the GOP primary regardless of his chances against Obama though. The possibility of a Mormon president truly frightens me.
BUT...
This country is still a total mess (not his fault, I know) and his approval ratings aren't great (somewhere between 39-47%, depending on who you believe). When things aren't going well, folks tend to make some really crazy decisions (TWO terms for W?!!! WTH?!) so it wouldn't surprise me in the least if greater than half of America (or whatever the electoral college needs anyway) voted in a pizza man or space god. I REALLY hope Cain wins the GOP primary regardless of his chances against Obama though. The possibility of a Mormon president truly frightens me.
12
So many things that are wrong with your post, Charles.
1) altruism doesn't exist. We all act to satisfy our needs, that are material, emotional, intellectual, .. People differ insofar they believe their needs coincide with those of their neighbors as well.
2) it;'s pretty bold to call the election so early when the propaganda blitzkrieg hasn't really started and we have little idea of voter participation.
3) the dip is becoming less likely? can you point at what you have been reading to make you believe it.
4) GOPers currently choosing Cain over Perry and Romney has likely more to do with things like the sincerity factor than racial spite.
1) altruism doesn't exist. We all act to satisfy our needs, that are material, emotional, intellectual, .. People differ insofar they believe their needs coincide with those of their neighbors as well.
2) it;'s pretty bold to call the election so early when the propaganda blitzkrieg hasn't really started and we have little idea of voter participation.
3) the dip is becoming less likely? can you point at what you have been reading to make you believe it.
4) GOPers currently choosing Cain over Perry and Romney has likely more to do with things like the sincerity factor than racial spite.
14
There are worse "black for black's sake moments". Take Ebenezer Mudede and Robert Mugabe ass-fucking an entire country. To add insult to injury, instead of Charles shitting in a hole back in the motherland his father helped "build", we get him as The Stranger's long-running Affirmative Action hire. Yay, USA.
15
@13 Care to enlighten us with your insight into the 'Herb Cain' phenomenon? If you believe Charles' ideas are wrong, your opinion must be worth sharing.
16
I'd caution against irrational exuberance. According to Intrade, Obama has a less than even chance of getting re-elected:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contra…
Now, none of his opponents have a better than even chance of winning in 2012, so it's a bit mysterious what this implies. Maybe instead of counting on the individual skill of any one opponent, Intrade is taking into account several combined factors, such as a lack of enthusiasm on the part of Obama supporters, or general ambivalence amongst the electorate as a whole, which would result on a low turnout on election day.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contra…
Now, none of his opponents have a better than even chance of winning in 2012, so it's a bit mysterious what this implies. Maybe instead of counting on the individual skill of any one opponent, Intrade is taking into account several combined factors, such as a lack of enthusiasm on the part of Obama supporters, or general ambivalence amongst the electorate as a whole, which would result on a low turnout on election day.
17
Charles, I don't think there are many conservatives doing the mental acrobatics required to transform a vote for Herman Cain into an act of racism. Your suggestion is the thinking of a paranoid black man, not a conservative white.
Also, assuming Christie stays out of the race, Romney will win the primary by a landslide.
Also, assuming Christie stays out of the race, Romney will win the primary by a landslide.
18
I'm guessing you were part of the choir who in 08' was saying "dont worry; everything will be back to normal in 16 months". Its going to be closer to 10 yrs; and the new normal will include lowered median wages and a drastically shrunken middle class.
Maybe you already figured this out; but Mcain and the GOP threw the 08' election. Theres no way Romney will let himself win in 12' [it will just prove the impotence of the right] It will either be O again in 12' to seal the fate of the left, or the republican black guy [way blacker than O, by the way] who will end up serving a similar purpose.
Maybe you already figured this out; but Mcain and the GOP threw the 08' election. Theres no way Romney will let himself win in 12' [it will just prove the impotence of the right] It will either be O again in 12' to seal the fate of the left, or the republican black guy [way blacker than O, by the way] who will end up serving a similar purpose.
20
Alas, Herman Cain has just announced he's pro-choice, although it's not clear that he understands what he said, and thus his campaign is over. The Republicans are no more likely to nominate a pro-choicer than they are a seven-year-old Taliban with dynamite strapped around his waist.
21
The Republicans may nominate him. It would be the ultimate common-man nomination: pizza business guy v. law professor. Color only enters into it because the black common man doesn't think he's better than white yahoos and that makes the latter very happy.
22
@20,
He said it's a woman's choice while also saying that he thinks abortion should be illegal. Just more evidence that the guy is a nitwit.
He said it's a woman's choice while also saying that he thinks abortion should be illegal. Just more evidence that the guy is a nitwit.
23
@19 why? she has a unique point of view, expresses herself half well, engages in discussion. thats what makes shit interesting. not a choir of predictable assent. it's not even trolling, a way overused term. trolling is like period troll, who says a few lines about gamorrah and goes away. trolling are the crazy people that hold up signs about going to hell and putting hitler mustaches on things. kittnkoder usually engages in discussion so she can get away with a few one liners here and there. blahhhhhgggg
24
In what alternative universe is the dip becoming less likely? We're drowning in dip now and this is the shallow end.
Not even a 'nice try'.
Not even a 'nice try'.
25
@ 23,
I was gonna call her out too. I'm on record as saying I genuinely appreciate folks w/ an opposing viewpoint who come on here and offer cogent points of debate (which she occasionally does) but to come out and say, "Nice spin. Fail, but nice" and not offer anything to backup such a claim seems rather dimwitted, cowardly, or perhaps just dismissable.
I was gonna call her out too. I'm on record as saying I genuinely appreciate folks w/ an opposing viewpoint who come on here and offer cogent points of debate (which she occasionally does) but to come out and say, "Nice spin. Fail, but nice" and not offer anything to backup such a claim seems rather dimwitted, cowardly, or perhaps just dismissable.
26
Stunningly inept political analysis, is this writer being paid?
Nobody, I mean NOBODY in the GOP thinks Obama is unbeatable in 2012. The champagne is already on ice and new drapes have been ordered for the Oval Office. Cain may very well end up on the ticket as the VP. If so he WILL take black votes away which Obama can't afford to lose. White racists did not vote for Obama in 2008 and they won't in 2012, so it's not them who will swing this election. It will be disillusioned 2008 Obama supporters jumping ship in large numbers.
You desperately want and need this to about race but you are wrong. If Hillary Clinton were president the attacks probably would be even worse. Have you forgotten the poisonous rhetoric, accusations of murder, lesbianism, impeachment proceedings etc. etc during the Cinton Administration? Were those attacks also racist? No, it's about ideology and race is not the deciding factor.
Sorry but your god Obama is toast - and it was arrogance and incompetence which did him in, not race.
Nobody, I mean NOBODY in the GOP thinks Obama is unbeatable in 2012. The champagne is already on ice and new drapes have been ordered for the Oval Office. Cain may very well end up on the ticket as the VP. If so he WILL take black votes away which Obama can't afford to lose. White racists did not vote for Obama in 2008 and they won't in 2012, so it's not them who will swing this election. It will be disillusioned 2008 Obama supporters jumping ship in large numbers.
You desperately want and need this to about race but you are wrong. If Hillary Clinton were president the attacks probably would be even worse. Have you forgotten the poisonous rhetoric, accusations of murder, lesbianism, impeachment proceedings etc. etc during the Cinton Administration? Were those attacks also racist? No, it's about ideology and race is not the deciding factor.
Sorry but your god Obama is toast - and it was arrogance and incompetence which did him in, not race.
27
Thank you, that was an interesting chain of thought. And though I'm not sure Cain will actually be nominated, I don't think it would take conscious decisions in mass for such a result to occur.
After all, spite is not much more than a feeling, right down in your gut.
After all, spite is not much more than a feeling, right down in your gut.
29
i'm tired of the election and it's OVER a year away. this is absurd. this shit (GOP debates) shouldn't even be starting till after the new year.
30
I have to join the chorus that says where's this "no risk of dip" thing? Do we even have a clue how the Eurozone is going to shake out? What about the deleveraging that hasn't happened yet? What do you think's going to happen when we slash government demand (the largest source of demand right now) as already mandated by law?
Your other analysis may have insight but if you're predicating it on Obama being unbeatable, that's just not the case yet. At this point in time in 2007, Hillary Clinton was "inevitable," remember? Inevitable, unbeatable--meh. If somebody finds a dead body or 12 year old boy in Romney's past, then maybe so.
Your other analysis may have insight but if you're predicating it on Obama being unbeatable, that's just not the case yet. At this point in time in 2007, Hillary Clinton was "inevitable," remember? Inevitable, unbeatable--meh. If somebody finds a dead body or 12 year old boy in Romney's past, then maybe so.
31
You Seattle people have truly fallen off the left (west) end of the spectrum. What planet do you occupy over there? If you believe that the GOP is favoring Herman Cain because they want to spite Obama for being black, you are the most superficial, politically ignorant journalists I have yet read on this topic. Herman has been well respected in political and business circles of the South and Southeast for years. He is a close friend to many well known conservatives, including Neal Boortz and Sean Hannity, whom he knew through his radio career. Everyone wants to make fun of him as a pizza man,l but no one wants to mention his stint with Coca Cola and Pillsbury, or as a missile engineer in the Navy. Oh, that's right, YOUR GUY didn't serve in the military OR have a business career. OH, that's right, YOUR GUY won't release any of his academic records, but Herman was a great student at Morehouse (alma mater of King, Cosby, and other famous REAL black men) and also received a master's degree from a Big Ten School. Underestimate Cain at your own risk--And you will be the surprised one on election day.
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