I got leaked a copy of the Elway Poll that's going around today, so let's go through its findings.
First stop: Initiative 1163, backed by the Service Employees International Union. It would mandate background checks for long-term care workers, and according to Elway's survey of 407 Washington voters, 77 percent of respondents favor the idea.
One easy theory as to why this initiative is doing so much better than the other two initiatives headed for the ballot this fall: It appeals to older voters, who a) vote and b) represent a larger and larger share of the electorate as Baby Boomers age.
The numbers behind the topline Elway findings back up this theory. "Support went up with age," the poll's own analysis says, with the percentage of "definite" yes votes jumping from 33 percent for those under 35 years old to 50 percent for those over 65 years old.
You might say: Duh.
But this is a "duh" dynamic that opponents of I-1163 will have a hard time overcoming. People who feel themselves to be nearing the end of their lives—not to mention their kids—have a natural reason to support background checks on those who get called in when "long-term care" becomes necessary.