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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Panic / Chow When Food Prices Surge, People Riot

Posted by David Schmader on Wed, Aug 17, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Wired.com explains the obvious, with precision and scary implications. From Brandon Kelm's report "Food Prices Could Hit Tipping Point for Global Unrest":

According to a new analysis of food prices and unrest, the 2008 global food riots and ongoing Arab Spring may be a preview of what’s coming. “When you have food prices peak, you have all these riots. But look under the peaks, at the background trend. That’s increasing quite rapidly, too,” said Yaneer Bar-Yam, president of the New England Complex Systems Institute. “In one to two years, the background trend runs into the place where all hell breaks loose.”

Read the whole spooky thing—complete with charts n' graphs— here.

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The dropping price of oil may preclude a tipping point if it's benefits can reach markets soon enough. In other words, if the lower price of fertilizers and insecticides derived from oil, and the lower costs of delivery can stymie the climb in prices before another year's crops reaches market shelves, this may not be inevitable. If not, people need food and will go any lengths to get it. Even ancient Rome knew that and stored large amounts for lean times. But corruption can supplant even the best efforts by government. Witness Somolia where food aid is stolen and held hostage.

Posted by Vince on August 17, 2011 at 11:58 AM