I somehow missed it when it first came out (guess I should be watching more TV), but a new KING-5/SurveyUSA poll has Democratic US Rep. Jay Inslee slightly leading Republican AG Rob McKenna 47-44 in the race for governor. The poll was conducted 6/24 through 6/26, before Inslee kicked off his campaign.

Caveats abound. The spread is well within the margin of error, and polls this far out from the election are all but meaningless as a predictor of the final outcome. Plus, SurveyUSA hasn't proven to be the most reliable polling company in recent years, at least not here in Washington state. But the results do suggest that the conventional wisdom on this race may not be all that wise.

Talk to a lot of the members of the press corps covering this race, and you'd think it's already over: congratulations Gov. McKenna. McKenna's going to way outperform past GOP candidates in crucial King County, I'm told, possibly even win it. McKenna has statewide name ID, while Inslee is relatively unknown outside his own congressional district. McKenna is slick and smooth and well-prepared—the consummate politician—whereas Inslee on the stump can be a little clunky and uneven. And most importantly, McKenna is allegedly a different kind of Republican, exactly the kind that appeals to swing voters in this state.

Yet none of those advantages show up in this poll.

No doubt McKenna is the strongest gubernatorial candidate the Republicans have fielded in years, but honestly, the past couple Democrats haven't exactly been barn burners on the campaign trail either. Inslee, however, he has the ability to connect with people in a way I think a lot of insiders might find surprising. And if this race is really starting off as close as this and other recent polls suggest, he's in a decent position to win.