With just one, maybe three precincts left to count, labor-backed challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg leads conservative incumbent Justice David Prosser by just 224 235 votes in the closely watched Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. While the AP still lists three precincts outstanding, unofficial reports from the ground suggest that only the precinct in Lake Mills, Jefferson County remains, and that the tally there is nearly evenly split. So in Dino Rossi parlance, it looks like Kloppenburg will "win" the first count.

No idea how many absentee and provisional ballots there are, and how they might lean, but considering the huge momentum swing in this race I wouldn't bet on them favoring Prosser. All we can be sure of is that there will be a bitter battle over the inevitable recount. And for various technical and demographic reasons, Democrats nearly always pick up votes in recounts.

As for the larger message from this contest, I stand by my earlier assessment that even this virtual tie should be seen as sharp rebuke of Tea Party Gov. Scott Walker and his anti-worker policies. It is a rare thing to knock off a 12-year supreme court incumbent, and nobody saw this coming before Walker declared war on Wisconsin's public employees. It's not the the final margin that matters as much as the huge swing in public opinion that enabled Democrats to quickly organize and win a race they had no business winning. And to add to this message, the Democratic candidate in the allegedly nonpartisan race to succeed Walker as Milwaukee County executive also won last night, and by an impressive 60-40 margin.

Walker may be stone-cold head-up-his-ass crazy, but if you don't think his Republican allies aren't very nervous by these results—especially those GOP senators facing recall—then you don't know politics.

UPDATE: The AP has confirmed that the remaining two precincts in suburban Milwaukee County were either "empty" or already reported, so we're just waiting on Lake Mills. Also, the unofficial tally has been slightly adjusted in Kloppenburg's favor, expanding her small lead to 235.

UPDATE, UPDATE: All precincts reporting, further AP adjustments, Kloppenburg up by 204.