Astute Olympia observers will tell you that the first iteration of the state budget proposal is usually released shortly after the March revenue forecast... but that dreary forecast came out a week and a half ago, and still nothing but crickets from the House Ways and Means Committee, whose turn it is this time around to go first in our Legislature's deadly game of budget roulette. "Some time this week," Rep. Reuven Carlyle (D-Seattle) suggested noncommittally. "Last week," predicted Rep. Zack Hudgins (D-Tukwila).

The budget is still "in flux" Carlyle and Hudgins tell me, though don't expect any big surprises. With a five-plus billion dollar budget gap to close, and no influx of federal stimulus dollars this time around, the cuts are gonna be big and painful... even bigger and more painful than the billions of dollars already slashed over the past couple years. We're talking dramatic reductions or complete elimination of "discretionary" programs like K-4 enhancement, which pays for class size reduction. That would mean eliminating 1,500 elementary school teachers statewide, says Carlyle, 58 teachers here in Seattle.

As for higher education, the cuts will be steep, as will the corresponding 11 to 14 percent tuition hike. Net-net for state colleges and universities, Carlyle expects, will be an additional 3 to 5 percent cut in funds, even after tuition increases. "Students will be paying more and getting less," Carlyle says.

Both Carlyle and Hudgins explain that a lot of the cuts will be guided by the matching funds various programs get, with an emphasis on preserving funding for those programs that leverage state dollars to bring in federal money. These matching dollars may end up saving Basic Health from total elimination, for example. Or maybe not. As for lower profile expenditures, state agencies can expect to be pummeled once again, with Hudgins suggesting the elimination of another 600 FTEs across the various state departments and agencies, many of which have already laid off over 10 percent of their workforce.

And don't expect any new taxes in the offing, although some fee hikes (which only require a 50 percent-plus-one majority) could still be on the table, but most likely far short of the $100 million or so in natural resources related fees proposed by some in the environmental community.

A lot of ifs. But the one thing we know for sure is that it's gonna be a bloodbath.