Slog
News & ArtsMonday, March 14, 2011
Breaking News Don't Panic
Posted by Jonathan Golob on Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 6:10 PM
First, the latest news on the Fukushima reactors, via Nuclear Information and Resource Service:
NHK TV reports that there has been an explosion at Unit 2 at Fukushima Daiichi. There is speculation that this explosion has damaged the primary containment (inside the concrete containment building, which is the secondary containment. Tepco is evacuating some non- essential personnel from the reactor site. 2.5 meters of the core are currently uncovered by water—which means it is almost certainly melting. Winds from the site are currently blowing toward the North.
If true, this is arguably the worst case scenario for this disaster. The primary containment building is responsible for containing the nuclear fuel of the reactor. For those of us not directly working at the plant bravely sticking to their duties despite all the risk or within a hundred miles or so from the damaged reactors, there is no heath risk or radiation exposure risk.
Do not panic.
- http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/
The prior explosions at reactor 1 and 3 involved the secondary containment building. If the primary containment is actually breached at reactor 2, this might make the site too radioactive for workers to stay at for any length of time.
(If you're curious to read some more details about what has, and is, happening at the plants, I can recommend this article by Dr Josef Oehmen from MIT.)
There are two perspectives to come at, when considering the significance of this event.
For those within a short distance of the plant, this is now a massive event—with significant local contamination possible. A release of radiation on the scale of the Chernobyl disaster is simply not possible; a release larger than that of Three Mile Island is increasingly likely—particularly as salvage efforts are hampered by the local radiation levels.
For the rest of us, even given the potential release of reactor contents to the environment, the amount of radioactive isotopes we'll be exposed to from this accident should be considered in comparison to that from other sources.
Coal burning power plants, worldwide, release approximately 8000 tons of Uranium and 20,000 tons of (radioactive) Thorium into the environment each year—as a part of routine operations. (Coal is contaminated with these elements, and there are no regulations requiring them to be stripped out before the coal is burned.)
Similarly, the mining of rare earth elements (used to manufacture touchscreens and windmill generators, among many other high tech items) results in vast waste pools of Thorium—also left exposed to the environment.
Despite the magnitude of this disaster—larger than many suspected could be possible with non-Soviet-style reactors—I firmly believe some perspective is needed when you consider if nuclear power is 'safe'.
Another point, that I fear people are confused by: A 'Meltdown' does not mean the same thing as a nuclear explosion. A meltdown means the nuclear fuel in the reactor—normally in pellet form, neatly loaded in metal rods—has melted and lost the orderly shape. A 'partial meltdown' means the fuel rods have partially melted. A 'full meltdown' indicates a complete loss of form to the fuel. The more deformed the fuel becomes, the harder the eventual cleanup.
There is zero, none, zilch, nada chance of a nuclear explosion at one of these plants. None. Not even the shittiest imaginable midnight scifi flick could that happen. (As the Iranians and North Koreans can attest—creating a successful nuclear detonation takes lots of careful forming, enrichment and orderly compression.) Again. A meltdown is a problem for the eventual cleanup of these plants, but otherwise doesn't mean much for anyone who isn't planning on hiring with the Tokyo Power Company.
Updated:
From a (near) real-time Geiger Counter located in Tokyo:
- http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html
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You don't have to fight Godzilla or the genetically modified sea bass.
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The bad news is that the ones who haven't been evacuated are going to glow in the dark now.
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(gallows humor)
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"Don't panic" is some pretty banal advice, by the way.
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I really take issue with the conclusions at the end of the article you linked to in the aside. Dr. Oehmen has been proffered as a nuclear expert. From what I understand, he is not and he has a decidedly pro-nuclear agenda given his conclusions which are speculative at best. Dr. Oehmen's credentials seem to be in supply chain risk management but I've seen tons of fallacious arguments from authority today using this as a reference. If you want to cite sources, at least give us articles from nuclear engineers or state the context of their expertise (rather than just being the son of a nuclear engineer).
For balance, I think you should at least post a link to the Union of Concerned Scientists' blog on this:
allthingsnuclear.org.
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And no, it's not a bar set below Chernobyl. It's a comparison that should be rationally done among the alternatives to nuclear power, going forward from this place.
This is it. Really. The worst case scenario. A 9.0 earthquake, tsunami all hitting a forty year old plant, with one of the least intrinsically safe designs in operation.
It's not a popular thing to say now, but as bad as nuclear power is from an environmental POV, it's probably better than continuing to burn fossil fuels.
Every story on the nuclear disaster takes attention away from the hundreds of thousands if not millions of people who are acutely suffering the after affects of the tsunami. A responsible media would be reporting on ways for people to help those in need rather than scaring us with nuclear holocaust nonsense.
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Re: Coal burning plants. What will it take to increase nuclear energy capacity since they take so damned long to build? Coal burning plants.
Re: Mining, yes that's something we can agree on. Increased mining because of ravenous consumption is not good for the environment nor the colonized populations the minerals are stolen from. However, this doesn't mean we should make the trade for increased uranium. Every stage of the processing (without accidents or tactical events): mining, enrichment, fission, waste disposal and retention is a long-term danger and increases carbon emissions* at the same time.
It would be more prudent to look into ways to prioritize a balance to that consumption and continue research into fusion and improving manufacturing processes and efficiency for solar, wind, hydroelectric, etc.
*assuming that mining/enrichment equipment will be gas and coal powered for some time to come.
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I'm honestly torn in this situation--a bigger calamity than felt to be possible with a boiling water reactor.
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Yesterday we were being assured a full meltdown was "impossible". Today we're hearing all the workers are ready to bug out and stand back and watch, staring a full meltdown in the face.
Pretty much every step in this whole chain of events was, we were told ahead of time, impossible. The bizarre logical twist is that the ones making these incorrect predictions don't want to be held to account precisely because they said each of these things was called impossible.
See how that works? Where I would say they are clueless and incompetent for not anticipating that these things were going to happen, they delude themselves that their reasoning was sound because it only applied for all the stuff they did plan for. The stuff they didn't plan on happening doesn't count against them. Even though it did happen.
It's exasperating but it's always exasperating dealing with people suffering from the Dunning–Kruger effect.
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ALL FOUR REACTORS ARE SERIOUSLY FUCKED RIGHT NOW:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/…
Japan Faces Prospect of Nuclear Catastrophe as Workers Leave Plant
TOKYO — Japan faced the likelihood of a catastrophic nuclear accident Tuesday morning, as an explosion at the most crippled of three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station damaged its crucial steel containment structure, emergency workers were withdrawn from the plant, and much larger emissions of radioactive materials appeared immiment, according to official statements and industry executives informed about the developments.
Japanese Prime Minsiter Naoto Kan made a televised address to the nation at 11 a.m. Tokyo time to discuss the latest developments in the crisis.
The sharp deterioration came after government officials said the containment structure of the No. 2 reactor, the most seriously damaged of three reactors at the Daichi plant, had suffered damage during an explosion shortly after 6 a.m. on Tuesday.
They initially suggested that the damage was limited and that emergency operations aimed at cooling the nuclear fuel at three stricken reactors with seawater would continue. But industry executives said that in fact the situation had spiraled out of control and that all plant workers needed to leave the plant to avoid excessive exposure to radioactive leaks.
If all workers do in fact leave the plant, the nuclear fuel in all three reactors is likely to melt down, which would lead to wholesale releases of radioactive material — by far the largest accident of its kind since the Chernobyl disaster 25 years ago.
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For the irrationally panicky, I suggested vitamins as something relatively harmless.
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Forgive me, but there's just something that doesn't sit right with me about getting a year's worth of radiation exposure in a few days (not to mention, you still get an additional year's worth in a year). (Or, a day's worth of radiation in a few seconds; which is why I'm happy to keep myself in the control group of the TSA's radiation exposure experiments.)
And I dot know what news sources you've been reading, but nobody's been seriously talking about a thermonuclear detonation... they have been talking about a meltdown, and that event seems increasingly plausible.
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It is worth being cautious about and I appreciate that you are just expressing a feeling but this is why we have to stick with the facts and the science. People are scared of nuclear anything due to various pieces of pop culture.
I don't know about you, but every time I've gotten x-rays, they put a big lead smock on me, the doctor leaves the room, and I don't get blasted by x-rays continually for a week.
I'm not saying we're at apocalypse here, but can we agree this is worse (for Japan, at least) than a smoke detector or normal ambient radiation? Do we need to wait for people to get cancer or their gums to start bleeding before we admit that their nuclear reactor fucked up?
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We do know that the secondary containment buildings have been destroyed significantly in units 1 and 3, which is the last line of defense. So unless the more primary lines of defense hold, which is completely unknown territory at this point, it could become very bad very fast.
A viral blog post claimed that there was no chance "significant radiation" would be released from damaged reactors in Japan, but despite having been republished widely around the Web, the post has not held up to scrutiny.
Identified as an "MIT research scientist," Dr. Josef Oehmen wrote the post over the weekend with the title, "Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors." It was a modified version of an e-mail he sent to family and friends in Japan on Saturday evening, according to the blog where it was originally posted.
Oehmen, it turns out, does work at MIT but has no special expertise in nuclear power. And his key claim -- that "there was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity from the damaged Japanese reactors" -- appears to have already been proven false. While clearly the situation is still developing and all the facts are not yet known, the New York Times reported today that an explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi plant released "a surge of radiation 800 times more intense than the recommended hourly exposure limit in Japan," leading to the evacuation of 750 workers. Meanwhile, the government has ordered 140,000 within 20 miles of the plant to stay indoors.
h/t @lensassaman
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