Find Your Valentine
Slog
News & ArtsTuesday, August 31, 2010
Politics Gallup Projects "Major Wave" for Republicans in November, Dems Losing Control of House
Posted by Dominic Holden on Tue, Aug 31, 2010 at 9:09 AM
Barreling down on the mid-term elections, a new poll says the GOP's lead is the "largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress." Read it and weep:
- Gallup
Also of note, the much discussed "enthusiasm gap," which shows Republicans are much more excited about the election and, in turn, much more likely to vote:
- Gallup
The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall's midterm congressional elections. Gallup's generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans' presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major "wave" election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House.
Man, this rain sucks.
1
I've found that I prefer to have an enemy in power screw me over than an ally, so I may just stay home and fuck it if the republicans win.
2
yeah, yeah. 'generic' congressional rep, land lines, etc. at 257:178 + 1 vacancy, taking back the house would mean the GOP picks up a minimum of FORTY seats. FORTY incumbents tossed out? bullshit.
3
"Generic" polls don't really mean anything. Sure, it's a pretty strong indicator that there are a lot of unhappy people out there, but that in no way predicts what's going to happen in any individual race.
4
@1, you know I sorta agree: Better to have peeople in power who hate your guts to your face as opposed to people who say sweet nothings and still stab you in the back.
5
Although the validity of this poll is highly questionable, the Demonrats brought this on themselves by throwing their voters under the bus in fealty to their right-wing, corporate-supremacist ideology.
I've voted for the Dems in every election since I was 18, and my first reaction when thinking about the last four years that they've controlled Congress is that they should all fuck themselves in Hell forever for refusing to stand up to the Bush Administration, for wiretapping, for endless wars, for TARP and continually enriching the super-wealthy while destroying everyone else, for refusing to investigate and hold people responsible for torture, for neither passing ENDA nor repealing DOMA, for passing an appalling insurance industry bailout bill under the fraud of calling it "health care reform," for willfully ignoring the consequences of these issues and countless other failures and betrayals. Probably not the response they're looking for.
I've voted for the Dems in every election since I was 18, and my first reaction when thinking about the last four years that they've controlled Congress is that they should all fuck themselves in Hell forever for refusing to stand up to the Bush Administration, for wiretapping, for endless wars, for TARP and continually enriching the super-wealthy while destroying everyone else, for refusing to investigate and hold people responsible for torture, for neither passing ENDA nor repealing DOMA, for passing an appalling insurance industry bailout bill under the fraud of calling it "health care reform," for willfully ignoring the consequences of these issues and countless other failures and betrayals. Probably not the response they're looking for.
7
Same timeframe, Newsweek generic came out 45-45.
Competent comparative analysis at Pollster.com.
Max @ 2 -- We'd be lucky to lose only 40.
We can easily lose 3 in this average-sized, bright blue state.
Competent comparative analysis at Pollster.com.
Max @ 2 -- We'd be lucky to lose only 40.
We can easily lose 3 in this average-sized, bright blue state.
8
This pole was tied at the beginning of the month - the election is over two months away. Remember the Palin surge right before the last election?
Don't count the Dems out - let the Repugs blow their wad on the mosque and other non-issues. The Dems have a lot of cash on hand and Obama is a master of timing - I expect quite the resurgence as November nears. Sure they will lose quite a few seats but as long as they keep the house and 50+ senators it will be business as usual.
Don't count the Dems out - let the Repugs blow their wad on the mosque and other non-issues. The Dems have a lot of cash on hand and Obama is a master of timing - I expect quite the resurgence as November nears. Sure they will lose quite a few seats but as long as they keep the house and 50+ senators it will be business as usual.
9
Oh one other thing before someone come on here telling us how wonderful things are:
The "health insurance reform" as it's called was written by the health insurance industry with most provisions not starting for years.
We are still at war, though Iraq we now have 50K "advisors".
Wall Street reform was written by and for guess who? WALL STREET!!! 'cause you know THOSE people are looking our for the little guy.
Obama's justice department compared same sex marriage with an uncle getting married to his niece.
And unemployment is higher than when Obama took office
Bush/Cheney are still free people without a fear of ever being tried for crimes against humanity
And do we need to go on?
No, we didn't expect things to turn around overnight. But we sure as hell expected a political party with a clear victory in 2008 to make serious headway in solving our problems. We expected the Democrats to stand up and fight, even if that means losing once in awhile. And you know what? If they had fought for us I think most of us would fight for them now and do everything we can to keep them in control.
(and I fucking don't care about spelling or grammer)
The "health insurance reform" as it's called was written by the health insurance industry with most provisions not starting for years.
We are still at war, though Iraq we now have 50K "advisors".
Wall Street reform was written by and for guess who? WALL STREET!!! 'cause you know THOSE people are looking our for the little guy.
Obama's justice department compared same sex marriage with an uncle getting married to his niece.
And unemployment is higher than when Obama took office
Bush/Cheney are still free people without a fear of ever being tried for crimes against humanity
And do we need to go on?
No, we didn't expect things to turn around overnight. But we sure as hell expected a political party with a clear victory in 2008 to make serious headway in solving our problems. We expected the Democrats to stand up and fight, even if that means losing once in awhile. And you know what? If they had fought for us I think most of us would fight for them now and do everything we can to keep them in control.
(and I fucking don't care about spelling or grammer)
10
This big drop in support for the Democrats coincides pretty close with Press Secty. Gibb's condemnation of the "professional left." Perhaps the "professional left" are pissed off, maybe even the non-professional left.
11
@1 and @4: That's nonsense. If the Republicans sweep state and national legislative races they will certainly try to roll back any gains made in gay rights, for example. They will also unleash the hounds on endless white house investigations, like they did with Bill Clinton. Finally, how much do you want to get involved in a war with Iran? There's a lot of concrete harm the crazy right wing can do for the nation. Always remember, people said there was no difference between George W and Al Gore. There IS a difference.
12
I'm upset with the tendency of people to believe so much misinformation...
I know Obama's a canny politician. I just hope he's got a few aces up his sleeve.
I know Obama's a canny politician. I just hope he's got a few aces up his sleeve.
13
why are outliers always reported as though they are the norm? this poll is being pushed all over the place without any context or input from people who know how to read statistics. it's as though everyone in the media assumes the events of each day have no relationship whatsoever to what happened the days/weeks/months prior.
14
12
did you ever see your puppy
run over by a truck right before
your iddy biddy eyes?
that's what November is going to feel like......
did you ever see your puppy
run over by a truck right before
your iddy biddy eyes?
that's what November is going to feel like......
15
The Democrats need to nationalize this election, pure and simple.
They need to remind people which party lead this nation to the financial brink in 2008, and that it's the Democrats who are, perhaps imperfectly, digging us out of the Republican's Great Recession.
The R's chastizing the D's for deficit spending? Give me a fucking break! Two unfunded wars, unfunded drug benefits, unfunded tax breaks for the wealthy, all legacies of Bush 2.
We Can Not Go Back. Not to those dark days.
They need to remind people which party lead this nation to the financial brink in 2008, and that it's the Democrats who are, perhaps imperfectly, digging us out of the Republican's Great Recession.
The R's chastizing the D's for deficit spending? Give me a fucking break! Two unfunded wars, unfunded drug benefits, unfunded tax breaks for the wealthy, all legacies of Bush 2.
We Can Not Go Back. Not to those dark days.
16
Health Care "Reform"...
Obama's biggest "victory"
The Kaiser Health Tracking Poll has support for the bill dropping 7 percentage points in August — down to 43 percent — while opposition rose 10 points to 45 percent. That’s the weakest showing since May — and a far cry from the bump proponents had hoped to see as some of the law’s more consumer-friendly provisions kick in.
Democrats said throughout the year-long debate on Capitol Hill that support for the overhaul would increase once the bill passed and Americans were able to take advantage of some of its benefits.
THEY LIED!!!!!!
hhahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/081…
Obama's biggest "victory"
The Kaiser Health Tracking Poll has support for the bill dropping 7 percentage points in August — down to 43 percent — while opposition rose 10 points to 45 percent. That’s the weakest showing since May — and a far cry from the bump proponents had hoped to see as some of the law’s more consumer-friendly provisions kick in.
Democrats said throughout the year-long debate on Capitol Hill that support for the overhaul would increase once the bill passed and Americans were able to take advantage of some of its benefits.
THEY LIED!!!!!!
hhahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/081…
17
Liar.
You were bitching about Obama before he even took office.
No, we didn't expect things to turn around overnight
Liar.
You were bitching about Obama before he even took office.
18
Wow... I guess Americans enjoy corporations running their country. I guess Americans really have no issue with being poor. I guess Americans really hate education. I guess Americans really hate the middle class. I guess Americans really love Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin. I guess Americans really love stupidity, discrimination, fear and racism. I guess Americans really hate having health care, social security and medicare. Wow. ...just, wow.
19
Looks like I bungled the Pollster link above. It should resolve most of the "Is this really real?" questions. (Short answer: yes)
And here's an update responding to an attending controversy.
And here's an update responding to an attending controversy.
20
Nothing the closing down of the Iraq Embassy in favor of using a broom closet in the British Embassy and the return of all of our troops from both Iraq and Afghanistan and cancellation of mercenary pay wouldn't solve.
Oh, and locally, the cancellation of the Billionaires' Tunnel in favor of either of the cheaper choices of a Rebuilt Viaduct or a Surface Plus Transit option - each of which can carry TWICE as much freight with downtown exits.
But, these are STRONG decisions. Inaction isn't strong - it just plays into the GOP's hands. And tentacles.
Oh, and locally, the cancellation of the Billionaires' Tunnel in favor of either of the cheaper choices of a Rebuilt Viaduct or a Surface Plus Transit option - each of which can carry TWICE as much freight with downtown exits.
But, these are STRONG decisions. Inaction isn't strong - it just plays into the GOP's hands. And tentacles.
21
"Bush/Cheney are still free people without a fear of ever being tried for crimes against humanity"
Yeah, that would have been great at the polls.
Yeah, that would have been great at the polls.
22
Read it and weep? No, read it and FIGHT BACK. Pin Wall Street on the Republicans, where it belongs. Start pounding the banks for refusing to lend to businesses that want to expand -- those banks are Republican banks. Start talking to the middle class. All those people who think the country is "headed in the wrong direction"? They're right -- FOR THEM. Talk to them, and tell them what you'll do for THEM. They'll vote for Democrats if they think they're on their side.
24
Cato @9 and Original Andrew @5: If health care reform and Wall Street reform were so friendly to the corporations, then why were they fought with every weapon at the Republicans' disposal? Why has Wall Street switched all of its giving to Republicans? If Wall Street "wrote" the reform, why wouldn't they want more? This kind of insane belligerence gave us the Nader protest vote (remember, Al Gore was SOOO awful--no difference at all between him and George W. Bush--REMEMBER??). Well . . . enjoy your new Republican majority.
27
Yes, it is, @25. But they're the only ones who reliably vote, so it ends up being pretty accurate.
28
well maybe if I wasn't traveling all over the fucking country chasing work and working all the time, I would have a chance to register to vote somewhere .... in the near future.
Getting a new license every year and a half is EXPENSIVE especially if you are motorcycle endorsed!
Getting a new license every year and a half is EXPENSIVE especially if you are motorcycle endorsed!
29
This is what the democratic party gets for not pushing for bold reforms. This is what they get for playing nice with a party that will hate them and call them radicals no matter what. Sometimes I wonder if democrats have been weak on purpose, to keep the political "center" of this country shifting further and further to the right. The white house has made it clear that there is no room in this country for progressive solutions, that they are too extreme. Meanwhile leaders of the republican party are literally insinuating that Barack Obama is a socialist, marxist muslim who might not really be a US citizen. How can we expect these vermin to work with a democratic senate and administration when they constantly treat them like enemies and not just opponent colleagues?
If republicans get the house nothing will get done and a lot of suffering will endure, I'm afraid. Republicans nowadays are going strictly against safety nets, the commons so we might have to kiss much of that goodbye. I expect a republican house will fight very hard to keep these safety nets, and much infrastructure spending from being funded at all. It took a lot of suffering and fighting for us to get these in the first place, it will be very, very difficult to get them back. The republicans only have one answer for people losing everything: "tough shit." And this is not exactly a fair system we have when there's only 1 job for every 6 people unemployed.
We have recently seen many horrifying disasters resulting from lack of regulation on corporate power. Shit, the 2008 market nearly crashed to pieces because of it! Which makes these numbers more shocking. We can't afford for this government to be more gridlocked than it's already been for the next 2yrs, this is too critical a time. VOTE!!
More...
If republicans get the house nothing will get done and a lot of suffering will endure, I'm afraid. Republicans nowadays are going strictly against safety nets, the commons so we might have to kiss much of that goodbye. I expect a republican house will fight very hard to keep these safety nets, and much infrastructure spending from being funded at all. It took a lot of suffering and fighting for us to get these in the first place, it will be very, very difficult to get them back. The republicans only have one answer for people losing everything: "tough shit." And this is not exactly a fair system we have when there's only 1 job for every 6 people unemployed.
We have recently seen many horrifying disasters resulting from lack of regulation on corporate power. Shit, the 2008 market nearly crashed to pieces because of it! Which makes these numbers more shocking. We can't afford for this government to be more gridlocked than it's already been for the next 2yrs, this is too critical a time. VOTE!!
30
@24, and yet most Americans think Wall Street owns Obama. Why is that? If your message isn't being heard because you're not saying it, whose fault is that?
32
Fnarf ... well what's worse. Obama works for wall street? Obama doesn't?
Or the reality ... that's rather hard to understand Obama works WITH Wall Street. Sides with them on some things, but otherwise doesn't.
The complications of working with an entity .. and subtleties therein ... it's just too much for most people to process. It's easier just to "mad as hell" and stand for "freedom" because catch phrases have a lot more meaning than ... progressive health care INSURANCE reform.
Or the reality ... that's rather hard to understand Obama works WITH Wall Street. Sides with them on some things, but otherwise doesn't.
The complications of working with an entity .. and subtleties therein ... it's just too much for most people to process. It's easier just to "mad as hell" and stand for "freedom" because catch phrases have a lot more meaning than ... progressive health care INSURANCE reform.
34
I'm kind of curious - do any of the whiners here have the slightest clue how right wing a country they live in? Ever venture outside your hermetically sealed northwest bubble? Unfortunately in this country the lesser evil is the best we can hope for. Make no mistake however the greater evil is a hell of a lot more evil and at least one reason it has the upper hand presently is the inability to comprehend reality by a certain contingent of the left.
35
Rhizome ...
uhm ... don't give the pacific northwest too much credit. Ever been to Battle Ground? Coos Bay?
yeesh!
uhm ... don't give the pacific northwest too much credit. Ever been to Battle Ground? Coos Bay?
yeesh!
36
@ 34,
It's true--we live in a right-wing country governed by our very worst citizens. In a sane country the Dems would be considered the center-right party, and the Repubs would be the cuckoo-padded-cell-lunatic fringe.
The Demonrats can't win elections simply by being the party that's slightly less worse. No matter which party is in power, we're getting the same policies.
At this point, people are just desperate and willing to vote for whoever's currently not in charge. It's doubtful that'll translate into Repuke majorities, since they're the only party despised more than the Dums, but who knows?
It's true--we live in a right-wing country governed by our very worst citizens. In a sane country the Dems would be considered the center-right party, and the Repubs would be the cuckoo-padded-cell-lunatic fringe.
The Demonrats can't win elections simply by being the party that's slightly less worse. No matter which party is in power, we're getting the same policies.
At this point, people are just desperate and willing to vote for whoever's currently not in charge. It's doubtful that'll translate into Repuke majorities, since they're the only party despised more than the Dums, but who knows?
37
@32, you don't have a message. If you don't have a message, you'll never ever win.
Obama has completely rolled over for the banks -- that's a message. That's what people hear, and not just from Glenn Beck -- they hear it every time a business owner says "I wanted to expand, but I couldn't get a loan, even though I'm profitable and want to hire people", which people are hearing EVERYWHERE. Right here in Seattle. The TARP money was granted under the condition that it be used to heal the lending economy. Instead, they pocketed it. THAT'S THE MESSAGE.
@36, we're not getting the same policies. Obama has been FANTASTIC in all areas of managing the federal government, repairing a decade of damage done by the Republicans, who, it is clear, set out deliberately to destroy government departments. Now those people are headed back in. That's a tragedy.
Obama has completely rolled over for the banks -- that's a message. That's what people hear, and not just from Glenn Beck -- they hear it every time a business owner says "I wanted to expand, but I couldn't get a loan, even though I'm profitable and want to hire people", which people are hearing EVERYWHERE. Right here in Seattle. The TARP money was granted under the condition that it be used to heal the lending economy. Instead, they pocketed it. THAT'S THE MESSAGE.
@36, we're not getting the same policies. Obama has been FANTASTIC in all areas of managing the federal government, repairing a decade of damage done by the Republicans, who, it is clear, set out deliberately to destroy government departments. Now those people are headed back in. That's a tragedy.
38
Yeah the hilarity is that the raison d'etre of the Republican party is to serve the financial industry (as well as the military/industrial complex) and the cave people have latched onto this idea that the Dems are the ones to blame for hedge fund manager bonuses.
The silver lining to a big November for the right might be that a fair percentage of those who are perpetually angry but not too clear on exactly what it is they are angry about will be angry with the Republicans in two years. As far as big ticket items Obama probably already got all he was going to get anyway. We won't be seeing any climate change legislation at least until the waterfront villas of oil magnates start disappearing beneath the waves.
The silver lining to a big November for the right might be that a fair percentage of those who are perpetually angry but not too clear on exactly what it is they are angry about will be angry with the Republicans in two years. As far as big ticket items Obama probably already got all he was going to get anyway. We won't be seeing any climate change legislation at least until the waterfront villas of oil magnates start disappearing beneath the waves.
39
Did the democrats ever once force the Republican Senators to filibusterer? Had they forced their hand, instead of rolling over every time they couldn't get 60 votes I would have some respect for them. I'd put $100 down that when control flips a slight Republican majority will manage to get things passed with 50 or 51 votes.
Advertisement
Most Commented on Slog
-
SL Letter of the Day: Life Sentence by Dan Savage
-
SL Letter of the Day: Daddy Loves Who? by Dan Savage
-
Required Listening: Howard Stern on Ellen, JC Penney, Bullied Gay Kids, Rosie, Santorum, Bachmann, et al by Dan Savage
-
Crowdsourcing Uncut Police Video from the Dec. 12 Occupy Protest at the Port of Seattle by Eli Sanders
-
The AP Is Reporting That Whitney Houston Is Dead by Paul Constant
-
State Legislator Testifies That His Opposition to Same-Sex Marriage Came to Him from a Commercial for Jack in the Box by Christopher Frizzelle
-
Slog Bible Study: Deuteronomy 21:10-14 by Goldy
-
"Let me be the first one to say: My business will refuse to participate in a same-sex marriage ceremony," by Republican Representative Matt Shea of the Spokane Valley by Eli Sanders
-
The Onion Is on a Roll: "Iran Worried U.S. Might Be Building 8,500th Nuclear Weapon" by Charles Mudede
-
"I don't know if I want to be here [if gay marriage passes]," by Republican State Senator Jay Rodne of North Bend by Eli Sanders
RSS
Facebook
Twitter
Comments (39) RSS