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News & ArtsFriday, March 5, 2010
Politics Poll Shows Simplistic Thinking on Taxes
Posted by Dominic Holden on Fri, Mar 5, 2010 at 2:45 PM
This morning I posted info about a poll on voter rage over the legislature suspending an initiative (an Eyman initiative) that made it more difficult—well, impossible, really—to raise taxes in this state. Lots of folks in comments wondered how the poll was conducted, what questions were asked, etc. I tracked down the poll (a collaboration of the Northwest Health Foundation, the polling firm Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall, and public radio stations across the Northwest) that answers some of those questions, and I've posted the poll's summary here (.pdf). One thing people asked was how many of the 1,200 respondents from three states were from Washington: 400 people.
Looking at the findings, you'd think most of the people surveyed had been reading the Seattle Times' series of Teabag editorials, which, in essence, argue that we shouldn't raise taxes at all. Despite plummeting revenues. Despite choices between raising taxes and eliminating the state's Basic Health program. Despite the fact that the legislature only wants to fill less than one-quarter of the budget gap with taxes and the rest is budget cuts. I know folks are cutting back in tough times—and some businesses are cutting back—but government is not a business. Its "product" of education, infrastructure, public safety are constant demands. When revenue drops, you can only cut so much without creating bigger problems down the road. For instance, in Colorado, where voters capped taxes, voters repealed suspended that law after the state spiraled into hardship—reducing the quality of its education, infrastructure, and public safety.
1
Ah there in resides the problem "demands" on the government. Everyone want's others to pay for their toys. I suspect there is a reason these times are called a depression/recession. Some one is not going to be happy at the end of the day.
Oh BTW in case you have not noticed, we're not living in Colorado. Just thought you might like to know.
Oh BTW in case you have not noticed, we're not living in Colorado. Just thought you might like to know.
3
@1: Education, healthcare, mental health services and infrastructure are not 'toys.' Also, you know as much about politics as you do about apostrophe usage. Or should I say about apo'strophe u'sage.
4
What has public radio's Olympic correspondent become a Tim Eyman shill, and why won't he talk or give air time to Eyman critics?
What has public radio's Olympic correspondent become a Tim Eyman shill, and why won't he talk or give air time to Eyman critics?
6
Um, Colorado never repealed TABOR. We did vote to increase some taxes, but the constitutional amendment is still very much in place.
9
Ah there in resides the problem "demands" on the government. Everyone wants others to pay for their toys. I suspect there is a reason these times are called a depression/recession. Some one is not going to be happy at the end of the day.
Oh BTW in case you have not noticed, we're not living in Colorado. Just thought you might like to know.
Oh BTW in case you have not noticed, we're not living in Colorado. Just thought you might like to know.
10
Revenues are plummeting because people's incomes are plummeting (or nonexistent). It isn't fair to raise taxes when people are making less money and losing their jobs, in fact it's just cruel. This idea that the government should be insulated from the suffering of its people is absurd.
11
Just ask any Tea-Bagger/Howard Jarvis disciple if it's a good time to lower taxes, even in this economy. They'll inevitably say 'yes, especially in this economy'. You can ask when we're in a recession or a boom, same answer.
Idiots.
Idiots.
12
@10: does your assertion apply to the sales tax, which disproportionately hurts the working poor, or the proposed 1% income tax on people making over 200K?
13
I read this at first as "Poll shows simplistic thinking in Texas."
I'm not sure how much to credit this poll. I don't doubt that people think they can get something for nothing, and will poll that way when asked in general terms about raising taxes when times are tough, and phrasing the question to make it seem like the public will is being subverted. On the other hand, I think that if you talk to people in depth they're not so short-sighted, and knees stop jerking when you take time to explain things in context.
The fact is, you shouldn't raise taxes in a recession or cut spending. Instead, the federal government, which can accumulate short-term debt, should make up the shortfall at the state level and increase spending to create jobs. Then the jobs fix the problem in the long run by increasing revenue and decreasing the need for public services.
But if the federal government isn't going to do that on a wide enough scale--and it isn't--states have to do the two things you shouldn't do in a recession--cut back spending and raise taxes. But they should be done sensibly. You cut programs that aren't doing a good job of producing jobs and economic growth, in favor of expanding programs that do. The thing is, the state has pretty much done that. That leaves raising revenue. You do that in a recession by raising taxes on the class of people largely unaffected by the recession. In short, you tax the rich. And you shift taxes from the poor and middle class to the rich. And you sell it as a shift in taxes that will in fact reduce taxes for many individuals, while raising revenue overall. Specifically, people will support a high-earners income tax, particularly if it's offset by a reduction in sales taxes, B&O taxes, and user fees.
When people hear the whole case made, then they're likely to be receptive, and they're likely to be OK with a suspension of supermajority tax rules to do it. But that requires that media sources actually explain things instead of reinforcing the knee-jerk reactions people have to poll questions.
More...
I'm not sure how much to credit this poll. I don't doubt that people think they can get something for nothing, and will poll that way when asked in general terms about raising taxes when times are tough, and phrasing the question to make it seem like the public will is being subverted. On the other hand, I think that if you talk to people in depth they're not so short-sighted, and knees stop jerking when you take time to explain things in context.
The fact is, you shouldn't raise taxes in a recession or cut spending. Instead, the federal government, which can accumulate short-term debt, should make up the shortfall at the state level and increase spending to create jobs. Then the jobs fix the problem in the long run by increasing revenue and decreasing the need for public services.
But if the federal government isn't going to do that on a wide enough scale--and it isn't--states have to do the two things you shouldn't do in a recession--cut back spending and raise taxes. But they should be done sensibly. You cut programs that aren't doing a good job of producing jobs and economic growth, in favor of expanding programs that do. The thing is, the state has pretty much done that. That leaves raising revenue. You do that in a recession by raising taxes on the class of people largely unaffected by the recession. In short, you tax the rich. And you shift taxes from the poor and middle class to the rich. And you sell it as a shift in taxes that will in fact reduce taxes for many individuals, while raising revenue overall. Specifically, people will support a high-earners income tax, particularly if it's offset by a reduction in sales taxes, B&O taxes, and user fees.
When people hear the whole case made, then they're likely to be receptive, and they're likely to be OK with a suspension of supermajority tax rules to do it. But that requires that media sources actually explain things instead of reinforcing the knee-jerk reactions people have to poll questions.
14
#11 no one is suggesting "lowering" taxes no one. That's not on the table at all. The discussion is about "raising" taxes. Please pay attention.
16
Hey wait, so this poll interviewed respondents in multiple states? Not just Washington? And 19% said they "don't know," also?
This poll doesn't really tell me anything about Washington voters' opinions if all that is true. Is there a Washington-only poll I can look at?
Anywho, yeah, thanks also Dominic for taking a sideswipe at the "Families are tightening their belts in these tough times, why shouldn't government?" Someone's gotta put that argument to bed. There's a lot of bad arguments out there, but it's gotta be in the top 10 dumbest ever.
...And I know a lot of people are going to read this and smirkingly laugh, and be like "why???" (Just think about it, guys. I'm sure everyone is capable of figuring it out.)
This poll doesn't really tell me anything about Washington voters' opinions if all that is true. Is there a Washington-only poll I can look at?
Anywho, yeah, thanks also Dominic for taking a sideswipe at the "Families are tightening their belts in these tough times, why shouldn't government?" Someone's gotta put that argument to bed. There's a lot of bad arguments out there, but it's gotta be in the top 10 dumbest ever.
...And I know a lot of people are going to read this and smirkingly laugh, and be like "why???" (Just think about it, guys. I'm sure everyone is capable of figuring it out.)
18
Hey all, guy from Colorado here. We enacted a very similar initiative in the 90's (called the Taxpayers' Bill of Rights) and it has more or less bankrupted the state outside of road construction, particularly education initiatives (next year we'll be where California is now). And nobody can make it go away.
So yeah, I hope you guys aren't fucked. But you probably will be.
So yeah, I hope you guys aren't fucked. But you probably will be.
19
Whoops! That's what I get for only reading the first half of the article before commenting :[ My comment @18 is largely redundant. Good read, Holden.
We've got a bit of hope in Colorado, actually. The current legislature is patching up the budget deficit primarily by cutting tax credits to businesses, which the Republicans who passed TABOR in the 90's are hopping mad about. Funny how these conservatives tend to anti-tax, but pro-corporate welfare.
The legislature has budgetary power for a reason - voters want things but don't want to pay for them. Thus you have voter-passed initiatives to increase spending on k-12 ed, but no increased taxes. Popular democracy is a fuckin' joke and always has been. You need representatives with power, preferably without term limits (thus allowing for actual institutional memory) we have neither in CO.
We've got a bit of hope in Colorado, actually. The current legislature is patching up the budget deficit primarily by cutting tax credits to businesses, which the Republicans who passed TABOR in the 90's are hopping mad about. Funny how these conservatives tend to anti-tax, but pro-corporate welfare.
The legislature has budgetary power for a reason - voters want things but don't want to pay for them. Thus you have voter-passed initiatives to increase spending on k-12 ed, but no increased taxes. Popular democracy is a fuckin' joke and always has been. You need representatives with power, preferably without term limits (thus allowing for actual institutional memory) we have neither in CO.
20
this is why ending corporate tax exemptions is a good idea, and why the ultra-rich don't want to let Washington citizens do a line-item vote on them - because they know the exemptions won't survive a vote of the people.
an exemption for one person/corporation is an increase in taxes for EVERYONE ELSE. and anti-capitalist (source: Adam Smith Wealth of Nations)
an exemption for one person/corporation is an increase in taxes for EVERYONE ELSE. and anti-capitalist (source: Adam Smith Wealth of Nations)
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