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Monday, January 11, 2010

Politics For Those Who Say We're Doomed in 2010

Posted by Paul Constant on Mon, Jan 11, 2010 at 4:48 PM

I am relieved to read in the National Journal that David Axelrod is on the job for Democrats running for office in 2010. In retrospect, many of the things that I appreciated most about the 2008 Obama campaign—the flawless timing, the consistent messaging—were Axelrod's babies. He's right about what the biggest issue will be, and he's got the right ideas on how candidates need to be positioned to successfully run as a Democrat in 2010:

"It's almost impossible to win a referendum on yourself," Axelrod insisted. "And the Republicans would like this to be a referendum. It's not going to be a referendum."

Asked what has to happen in the next 10 months to produce the best possible result for Democrats in November, Axelrod didn't hesitate in identifying his top priority: an economy that is adding, rather than losing, jobs each month. "I think job growth is certainly number one," he said. "I think that's how most people measure a recovering economy."

Some of his ideas sound iffy—I don't think Democrats will be able to frame Republicans as a party in 2010, because I think Republicans are going to try to run as a Loosely Confederated Group of Mavericks™ instead—but he's at least coming from the right direction. It's going to be a tough race no matter how it falls, but knowing that Axelrod is calling the shots makes me feel much better. And I think that no matter what happens in November, the most important battle will come the day after Election Day, when the news networks try to frame the race one way or another. Axelrod is great at managing that kind of thing.

Comments (13) RSS

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Everything I've seen show the GOP has more retirements (total number) (and percentage) and that nobody trusts those al-Qaeda-backing Republic Party of No comrades and their fellow travelers.

But then, you could listen to the conservative media ....

Posted by Will in Seattle

on January 11, 2010 at 4:51 PM

The GOP definitely has some things going their way. However, we are 10 months out. If we start seeing some sort of job growth (at least 150k jobs per month, starting no later than April), and economic signs continue to improve, I do think that Democrats can stem the flow.

Axelrod is right - job growth is the tampon for Democrats in 2010. And I think it's going to happen. Looking at all of the numbers from across the country, I don't see a double dip recession.

That being said, Democrats are going to have to work hard. It isn't helpful that so many in the Democratic Party are becoming more and more disenchanted by Obama (having, for some reason, thought he was this uber liberal guy), but it is worth remembering that good shit takes time to accomplish. And there will be no accomplishments if the majorities in Congress are greatly diminished.

Posted by michaelp on January 11, 2010 at 4:57 PM

Dems should run on actual health care reform with a public option, decriminalizing marijuana, ending DADT in 2010. Then single-payer health care, legalizing marijuana, gay marriage in 2012.

Maybe that was their plan all along?

Posted by Hoping Nader runs in 2012 on January 11, 2010 at 5:10 PM

or, @3, we could do some of those things at the state level, and show you what state's rights really means ....

Posted by Will in Seattle

on January 11, 2010 at 5:43 PM

@3

Yeah, legalizing marijuana is much more important than dealing with global warming.

Selfish bourgeois much?

Posted by pat_k on January 11, 2010 at 6:06 PM

This post is so defeatist and lame it's ridiculous. Oh well it's going to be tough no matter what = "why should we Democrats take responsibility for watering down the stimulus, not passing financial reform, coddling the banks, gutting public option, it's way tough actually governing, waaa waaa waaaa, ohmygosh those damn voters who expected us to achieve real change are sooooo demanding waaa waaa waaaa...here's what let's do, let's cross our fingers and wish on the Magic Unicorn to make jobs come! He has magic he can do it! and if we all believ then the jobs will come and they will come just in time for us to not get our ass kicked!"

Posted by Kool Aid Yum!! Gulp, Gulp Gulp!! on January 11, 2010 at 6:11 PM

So his big strategy is to cross his fingers and hope for job growth? What a political genius!

I hope he has a plan B.

Posted by Free Lunch on January 11, 2010 at 6:11 PM

In other words, we ARE doomed.

recession comparison graphic

Posted by RonK, Seattle on January 11, 2010 at 6:43 PM

See also Brad DeLong: "So why am I still a very unhappy camper? Because I am looking at the employment-to-population ratio, which continues to crash:", followed by still more sphincter-throttling graphs.

Posted by RonK, Seattle on January 11, 2010 at 6:49 PM

Yeah, the jobs aren't coming back this year. It's not really Obama's fault, because even his half-ass stimulus measures were called socialist by the Republicans, and I don't think anyone could have gotten much more that that. But the jobs aren't coming back. They'll probably recover enough by 2012 for his reelection, and maybe even a Democratic wave that year, but this year is not looking good.

Posted by Cascadian on January 11, 2010 at 9:46 PM

Including people discouraged and no longer looking for work actual unemployment is 18%.
40% of whom have been out of work TWO YEARS.

You're toast.

(ps- everytime Obama extends unemployment benefits those numbers get bigger. pay people not to work, and, Voila!, you get more people not working...
go figure)

Posted by It is 2010 in America on January 12, 2010 at 2:33 AM

I don't know why 2010 is being made out to be so difficult. The national message shouldn't be that hard, show Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln, etc. and the message is "if this is the best you can do, this is the best we can do."

Then all we need are to run candidates who can excite the base about the idea of a congress that actually has the progressive votes to actually implement the stuff we thought we voted in in 2008.

That should wrap things up nicely.

Of course, if that doesn't seem to be working, we just need to astroturf up 3 or 4 teaparty candidates in every iffy state and district and NY23 the hell out of the Repugnicants. It's not like there is a downside to failure, as the GOP isn't working with us anyway.

Posted by Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? on January 12, 2010 at 9:42 AM