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Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Panic Odds of Airborne Terror

Posted by on Wed, Dec 30, 2009 at 10:15 AM

. . . are pretty slim, according to Nate Silver. Just to help us all put things in perspective. . .

the odds of being on given departure which is the subject of a terrorist incident have been 1 in 10,408,947 over the past decade. By contrast, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are about 1 in 500,000. This means that you could board 20 flights per year and still be less likely to be the subject of an attempted terrorist attack than to be struck by lightning.

These numbers include the four 9-11 flights, the Shoe Bomber and the Fundie-Undie Bomber. Try not to think too hard about this as you play your role as supernumerary in the Security Theater Playhouse next time you fly. Just be glad they're not making us take our briefs off as well as our shoes.

 

Comments (10) RSS

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Packeteer 1
Where is the war on lightning?!
Posted by Packeteer on December 30, 2009 at 10:30 AM
2
With your life at stake - why would you be shy about taking your briefs off?

Really now, let's get adult here. No big deal. Think line up for a physical in the Army or Navy.

Think locker rooms by the thousands, millions of guys un briefed ...

Oh, you have a little dick. Even that is no big deal, so do lots of guys.

For me, well hung and handsome, I show off anywhere any time. Most likely will have sexual action on the plane, no names exchanged .... hmmmmmm
Posted by Choir Boy No More on December 30, 2009 at 10:32 AM
emor 3
Rationality is so depressing.
Posted by emor on December 30, 2009 at 10:36 AM
4
Plus, this: http://www.buzzfeed.com/googlereader/the…
Posted by Luckier on December 30, 2009 at 10:37 AM
5
If the govt cared about saving lives we'd get high speed rail. Number of highway traffic accidents plummets. Less domestic car driving terrorism.
Posted by homerxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx on December 30, 2009 at 12:17 PM
Bill W. 6
Trouble with your logic is getting struck by lightning is actually more likely then the term may sound. 1 in 500,000 is not impossible. The odds of a non-felon being murdered with a gun is also 1 in 500,000.
But your odds of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3
Or a woman developing cancer: 1 in 3
Posted by Bill W. http://www.seattlegayscene.com on December 30, 2009 at 1:22 PM
Will in Seattle 7
@1 - it's up there with the deadly War on Turbulence.

Living in Fear never works.

And it's un-American.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on December 30, 2009 at 1:49 PM
The Amazing Jim 8
Odds go up to 1-to-1 if you fuck with me.

Hua.
Posted by The Amazing Jim http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/profile.php?id=100000076496291&ref=profile on December 30, 2009 at 2:20 PM
9
I'm grateful to the following individuals for putting some much-needed perspective on this terror incident:
* Nate Silver
* Bruce Schneier (security expert)
* The Amazing Jim (@8)
Posted by cressona on December 30, 2009 at 3:15 PM
eclexia 10
I'd rather take off my clothes than have my web browsing monitored. My bod is hot. My reading habits are trashy.
Posted by eclexia on December 31, 2009 at 12:19 PM

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