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News & ArtsThursday, December 24, 2009
Politics Report: Washington Looks Likely to Pick Up New Congressional Seat
Posted by Dominic Holden on Thu, Dec 24, 2009 at 12:47 PM
Yesterday I posted about speculation that Washington's growing population—we're estimated to be the country's 13th largest state, up from the 15th largest a decade ago—could put us in line for a 10th seat in the House of Representatives. Currently we have nine. Now David Ammons, spokesman for the Secretary of State's office, says it looks increasingly likely. But the downside—it looks like conservative states will pick up many more seats while progressive states will lose them. Says Ammons:
Washington apparently is in line for a new 10th congressional district, according to analysts at Election Data Services. The analysis, reflecting fresh population estimates from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, says if the numbers hold up in the 2010 Census, as expected, Washington will take the 435th of 435 House seats as a net gain.The report says six other states, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and Utah also would pick up a seat and Texas would gain three. Eight states would lose single seats — Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. Ohio is projected to lose two seats.
The analysis indicates that Washington’s gain may be Oregon’s loss. Oregon was on the bubble to get a new seat. But Washington should gain that seat by just a hair — by a margin of less than 25,000 souls. “The additional seat appears to have gone to its northern neighbor, the state of Washington,” the report says.
The report from Election Data Services is here (.pdf).
1
Looks like a lot of red states are gaining seats and a lot of blue states losing-
I'd call it a net gain of about 18 for the good guys...
If the Liberals keep slaughtering their innocent young at the rate 925,000 a year look for this to be an accelerating trend.
I'd call it a net gain of about 18 for the good guys...
If the Liberals keep slaughtering their innocent young at the rate 925,000 a year look for this to be an accelerating trend.
3
Neat. All the mass-babymakin' gets taken to places where only select types of families are loved by the state and babies loved until they're born. Then when about 10 percent of those neglected sprogs get old enough to tell their rents to go get bent like the way they were since birth, they'll pick up shop and head to the coasts.
Less important is in which states those new seats are to be allocated and more where in those states the seats will be drawn in. Increases in urban population revivals will probably get their district arses gerrymandered to within an inch of their lives.
It's a new day. Same old.
Less important is in which states those new seats are to be allocated and more where in those states the seats will be drawn in. Increases in urban population revivals will probably get their district arses gerrymandered to within an inch of their lives.
It's a new day. Same old.
6
One hopes some of that population growth in the red states will start edging those states a little more to the blue column...
7
@5: You can gerrymander where those congressional districts go.
Dwell on the electoral college, but it's a matter of where they end up and how representatives are elected to those seats which matters more. Besides, for states that cusped but went red in '08, the addition of new seats — Arizona, Florida, Nevada in particular — might make then swing blue. This basically echoes what @6 said.
Perspective for '012. Perspective.
Dwell on the electoral college, but it's a matter of where they end up and how representatives are elected to those seats which matters more. Besides, for states that cusped but went red in '08, the addition of new seats — Arizona, Florida, Nevada in particular — might make then swing blue. This basically echoes what @6 said.
Perspective for '012. Perspective.
8
7
you haven't been paying attention for the past month, padowan-
the senate can easily thwart the house.
you may gerrymander to affect the outcome of house seat races but the election of senators (and the presidential electoral college) are state wide votes not affected by gerrymandering.
and those new people in the states that "cusped but went red in '08" are already there, and voting red. they just haven't been counted in the 2010 census yet.
you haven't been paying attention for the past month, padowan-
the senate can easily thwart the house.
you may gerrymander to affect the outcome of house seat races but the election of senators (and the presidential electoral college) are state wide votes not affected by gerrymandering.
and those new people in the states that "cusped but went red in '08" are already there, and voting red. they just haven't been counted in the 2010 census yet.
9
Yeah, agreed with @6 and @7: without more info on where in each state fostered the population growth, and how the redistricting will go.. one can't assume a simple +10 GOP, -10 Dem prediction.
If these were mostly urban population growths and mostly rural declines, then that's good news for the urban/blue folks.
If these were mostly urban population growths and mostly rural declines, then that's good news for the urban/blue folks.
10
At least in Texas, the population bump will likely further the trend of cities becoming increasingly blue. Dallas and Houston went for Obama along with Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso - that trend will continue. Of course we had horrible redistricting that sought to unseat Dems by cutting up their urban districts (that only partly worked). So it will take another round of redistricting to even approach coming to terms with reality.
11
Urban growth is turning those red states blue. Houston, fucking Houston of all fucking places, elected a lesbian. If it ends up that Texas gains House seats and the districts are apportioned to DFW, Houston, or Austin, or other urban areas, then that means more black or Latino Democrats in the House. Look forward to those geographically large districts getting a bit larger geographically and those geographically tiny districts perhaps getting split again.
12
The largest growth in Texas is in Bexar, Harris, Dallas and Travis counties, second largest tier of growth is in the border communities, all of whom have lilted to the left.
Nobody, but nobody, is going to be able to make all those new seats red, and with the GOP in Texas splintering around the Perry/KBH battle, we're likely to see a huge surge in blueness in the state.
The new districts are likely to be adjacent to TX-20, TX-27, TX-9 and TX-19, just based on recent growth. Two with a PVI favoring dems, two favoring the GOP.
Fun times.
Nobody, but nobody, is going to be able to make all those new seats red, and with the GOP in Texas splintering around the Perry/KBH battle, we're likely to see a huge surge in blueness in the state.
The new districts are likely to be adjacent to TX-20, TX-27, TX-9 and TX-19, just based on recent growth. Two with a PVI favoring dems, two favoring the GOP.
Fun times.
13
@1
You should thank us. Could you imagine how much all those aborted kids would have cost us in welfare and jail costs?
You should thank us. Could you imagine how much all those aborted kids would have cost us in welfare and jail costs?
14
13
a litre of saline: $2.40
500mg of thiopental: $12.55
85mg of Pancuronium bromide: $6.75
justice administered through an IV needle: priceless
a litre of saline: $2.40
500mg of thiopental: $12.55
85mg of Pancuronium bromide: $6.75
justice administered through an IV needle: priceless
15
Also, it's possible our tenth seat might be an Eastern WA seat. Do we at least have info why/where we increased in WA population? If it was in Tri-Cities, most here (myself included) wouldn't be too thrilled.
17
the increase in house seats in rural areas? I wonder if they are transplants because of availability of jobs. They coincide very well with the states that lost representation due to job losses.
18
Seems pretty obvious that the growth states listed have seen an explosion of hispanic immigrants. I guess the census may not be looking too closely at citizenship status when counting, but will these people actually vote? Another casualty of lousy border control is disenfranchisement. Perhaps we can just cut to heart of matter and count them as 3/5 ?
The GOP could really exploit this, pandering to the fearful, voting whites in new districts largely populated by non-voting hispanics.
The GOP could really exploit this, pandering to the fearful, voting whites in new districts largely populated by non-voting hispanics.
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